The Israel-Lebanon maritime pact is a win for the West and a blow to Hezbollah

A historic agreement has cleared the way for oil and gas exploration in Lebanese and Israeli waters, just as winter fuel shortages haunt global markets.

While it will be years until the offshore Eastern Mediterranean fields are delivering gas and oil, the prospect of new supplies will tamp down global energy prices just as the European Union is desperately hunting for new supplies to heat and light its homes and offices. The Lebanon-Israel pact is expected to reduce the impact of the OPEC+ announcement last week to reduce oil production by 2 million barrels per day.

The war in Ukraine and sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline in the Baltic Sea have squeezed Russian oil and gas supplies to Europe — pushing up prices around the world and threatening shortfalls.

Brokered by the U.S. government, Lebanon and Israel’s new pact resolved a thorny knot of disputes relating to territorial waters that, for decades, had deterred investment into energy exploration. The deal settles maritime border disputes, but can also break the blockade imposed by Hezbollah on Lebanese firms hoping to trade with Israel.

It is also a significant victory for the Biden administration, which has seen its influence wane across the Middle East. This maritime deal shows that U.S. diplomats still have credibility and leverage.

Israel expects the deal to deliver billions of dollars in foreign direct investment. 

“This is a historic achievement that will strengthen Israel’s security, inject billions into the Israeli economy and ensure the stability of our northern border,” said Israel’s Prime Minister Yair Lapid. 

The draft agreement respects all the security and economic principles set out by Israel, Lapid said, fending off criticism from some right-wing lawmakers, including former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who blasted the government for its “surrender” to the Hezbollah.

Lebanon is more measured. Hezbollah, an Iran proxy, is designated as a terrorist organization by a large portion of the international community. It is also a terror group that continues to dominate Lebanese politics and is opposed to any economic ties to or diplomatic recognition of Israel. Given the complex compromises needed in Beirut’s politics, Lebanese politicians have cautioned that, despite the draft agreement, there is no guarantee the two countries will sign a treaty, it is “not a step towards normalization” and they are still “technically at war,” according to CNN.  

Earlier, Hezbollah had threatened to destroy the gas platforms if production began before the Iran-backed Shiite militia allowed it. Iran produces a tremendous amount of natural gas out of its offshore South Pars field and a new offshore Lebanese gas field would increase competition and slash prices.

On top of all that, Lebanon has laws dating back to 1955 that bar business with Israel, which declared independence in 1948. For years, these laws have been selectively enforced, sometimes against the Lebanese business leaders that Hezbollah sought to personally punish.

Events have forced Hezbollah to accept a deal with its “sworn enemy,” Israel. The Lebanese economy is reeling from inflation, worker protests, bombings and waves of refugees from neighboring Syria, which has been cursed by civil war for more than a decade. Foreign investment, even from Lebanese expatriates, is drying up.

Iran, too, is yielding to new, painful realities. Iran is losing men and money supporting the Houthis, another Shiite militia in Yemen, as Saudi Arabia sends air and ground fighters to support the recognized government in Sana’a. Meanwhile, Iran’s “victories” in Syria are becoming costly in both blood and treasure. U.S. and EU sanctions against Iran remain in place, denying Iran the expertise and technology to upgrade its energy infrastructure and obstructing lucrative markets to sell its black gold. Add to that, thousands of women are protesting Islamic laws in Iran’s major cities. Every light on the mullah’s dashboard is flashing red.

Could the U.S  drive a wedge between Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah? This would require a lot of skillful collaboration among the U.S., the EU and Arab allies, under the umbrella of American leadership akin to its long-game Cold War strategy. 

With patience and deftness, it could be done. The Lebanon-Israel maritime pact may be the first step.

Ahmed Charai is a Moroccan publisher. He’s on the board of directors for the Atlantic Council and the board of Trustees for The International Crisis Group in Washington.