The demographic challenges to peace for Israel and Palestine

Recent positive developments are signaling that now could be the time for Israelis and Palestinians to achieve what has been long desired in that region: peace.

Speaking at the opening of the 77th session of the United Nations General Assembly in September, Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid expressed his government’s backing for a two-state solution with the Palestinians. 

“An agreement with the Palestinians, based on two states for two peoples, is the right thing for Israel’s security, for Israel’s economy and for the future of our children,” he said. 

In his statement to the General Assembly the following day,  Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas took note of the Israeli prime minister’s call for a two-state solution, adding that Palestine also looks forward to achieving peace with Israel. 

“Let us make this peace to live in security, stability and prosperity for the benefit of our generations and all the people of the region,” Abbas said. 

 U.S. President Joe Biden also called for lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians in his remarks. In addition, the Arab Peace Initiative committee, which was meeting at the time of the General Assembly, promoted its two-decade-old proposal calling for peace and normalization for Arab countries with Israel in return for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Palestinian land captured during the 1967 war and for the creation of a Palestinian state.

Various options have been proposed to address the nearly century-long conflict, including a confederation of Israel, Jordan and Palestine, autonomy-plus for Palestinians, a federation of smaller Palestinian provinces or cantons, the expulsion or transfer of the Palestinians from the West Bank, also referred to as Judea and Samaria by Israel, a two-state solution creating separate lands for Israelis and Palestinians and a one-state solution where Israelis and Palestinians share the land equally.

Israeli and Palestinian demographics provide relevant insight into the likely religious compositions of the one-state and two-state solutions and the challenges that could arise from their creation.  

On the eve of the Jewish New Year 5782, observed on Sept. 25, Israel’s population stood at 9.6 million residents, with 7.1 million, or 73.7 percent, being Jewish. The State of Palestine’s population is estimated at slightly more than half the size of Israel’s, at approximately 5.3 million. 

Combining the populations of Israel and Palestine yields a total population of 14.8 million. The Jewish proportion of that combined population turns out to be a minority of 48 percent. Moreover, in this scenario, I have calculated that the Jewish proportion of the population is projected to decline to 46 percent by 2030 and further to 45 percent by 2048.

Regarding the prospects of the two-state solution, while some stress it is desirable and achievable, others believe it is no longer an option primarily due to today’s realities. Nearly 700,000 Israelis live in settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. 

Additionally, many of Israel’s political leaders, even those of the center-left, do not support a viable, sovereign Palestinian state. Former prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu pledged to impose Israeli sovereignty in parts of the West Bank. In practical terms, some have concluded that Israel annexed the West Bank long ago. 

Achieving a just and comprehensive two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a formidable undertaking with many serious challenges like the status of Jerusalem, the million-plus Palestinian refugees in neighboring countries,  religious extremists, international boundaries and national security. The one-state solution, however, comes with challenges of its own and would be at odds with Israel remaining a “Jewish and democratic state.” 

Despite the challenges, a negotiated peace based on either solution would lead to innumerable benefits. Instead of violence, oppression and despair, Israelis and Palestinians could look forward to reaping the rewards of peace, reconciliation and prospects for a brighter future. In addition, Israeli-Palestinian peace would strengthen and expand relationships among countries in this strategically important region. 

America has long sought a solution to the conflict and has encouraged peace talks and facilitated agreements between Israelis, Palestinians and neighboring nations. Given the desire for peace among the two populations and their government leaders, America should again actively pursue establishing peace talks.

Both sides of the conflict are ready for change. The time for Israelis and Palestinians to negotiate for lasting peace is now.

Joseph Chamie is an independent consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Births, Deaths, Migrations and Other Important Population Matters.”