Latin America’s challenges and changes ahead

Looking back on 2022, it closed as the year in which Latin America swerved to the left, dictators received a blank check and an unprecedented migratory hemorrhage opened the veins the region.

The new year starts with a pyrrhic economic growth projection. According to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in a context of external uncertainties and domestic restrictions, the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean grew 3.7 percent in 2022, just over half of the 6.7 percent rate recorded in 2021. It is estimated that the economic deceleration will continue in 2023, reaching a 1.3 percent growth rate.

The political map could change — more

In October, the elections in Argentina aim to take a new turn to the right. A timely slap in the face to Peronism for its erratic economic policies. In 2022, Argentina registered the second-highest inflation in the region, only surpassed by the failed Venezuela of dictator Nicolás Maduro. In an electoral year, political leaders like Mauricio Macri, Patricia Bullrich or the current mayor of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, seem to gain popularity among public opinion.

Peru in transition

A failed soft-coup in Peru has generated continuous protests but has also opened the debate for elections and deeper political reforms. Light at the end of the tunnel. New President of Peru Dina Boluarte turned out to be a better president than expected. Amid adversity, Peru continues to have a relatively solid and enviable economy and there are some good citizens willing to see beyond the ideological games.

Elections in Paraguay and Guatemala

In April, Paraguay will also have elections. Everything seems to indicate that the conditions are to remain on the path of a right-wing or center-right leadership. Democracy and economic stability will prevail, and no traumatic changes appear to be ahead.

In June, Guatemala will hold general elections. The country reinforced a state policy characterized by opacity, the judicialization of power as a political weapon including persecution of the free press. The elections here could bring surprises and not necessarily the kind that we can cherish.

Central America is moving toward a new wave of authoritarian regimes

Nicaragua and El Salvador seem to be two sides of the same authoritarianism with different characters. The government of El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele is getting closer to Ortega and further from democracy. No country can be governed under indefinite state of emergency. El Salvador is not the exception.

In Nicaragua, the single-party model has been strengthened, under a corrupt family dynasty.In November of 2022, migration from the country became the third largest in the hemisphere, only surpassed by Mexico and Cuba.

The embarrassing leadership of AMLO in Mexico

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) closed the year poorly. He promoted his Plan B of controversial electoral reforms, defended a former coup president in Peru and celebrated the “legacy” of the dictatorship of the Castro brothers in Cuba. ALMO kept a complacent silence on democracy and human rights in Nicaragua and Venezuela.

Lula da Silva’s return in Brazil

Newly elected Brazilian President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva — who previously served as president from 2003 to 2011 — has started his mandate with 52 presidential decrees and a cabinet of 37 ministers. Climate change and inclusive development appear to be at the forefront of this new mandate. Internally, the right wing is much stronger in Brazil’s Congress and the economy is much weaker, compared to Lula’s previous administration.

A less ideological foreign policy. The Brazilian president, who apparently sympathizes with Venezuela’s and Cuba’s dictators, does not have the space, nor the support, to wear himself out by yielding to the ideological agendas of Mexico or the dictatorships of Cuba.

The total peace of Petro in Colombia

President of Colombia Gustavo Petro is moving forward with one the biggest and most complex challenges, fulfilling his promise to achieve the so-called total peace. Good intentions or leftist speeches are not enough. There are different armed sectors with different interest and not all of them seek the same. Building peace without impunity and with justice is a daunting but pressing task.

The constitutional referendum in Chile

President of Chile Gabriel Boric has the challenge of bringing more to the center and toward reality his constitutional reforms. Any miscalculation would be fatal. The Chilean leader is well-known for a foreign policy consistent with democratic values and respect for human rights. His hand does not tremble when it comes to criticizing the abuses of the dictators of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Human rights have no ideology.

The year of Nicolas Maduro

The interim President of Venezuela, Juan Guaidó is now history. The opposition legislature that he led made sad decision to vote him out of power. Despite, opposition efforts, the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro is back and stronger. He closed 2022 with the unfreezing of $3 billion dollar, new oil agreements and almost 300 political prisoners in jail. The economy that was dying seems to be resurrected, as well as the possibilities of free, fair and perhaps transparent elections.

Cuba

Cuba, for its part, ended 2022 with a Penal Code that includes the capital punishment for crimes against the homeland. The island’s dictatorship has jailed more than 1,000 people for challenging the regime, including women, children and members of the LGBTI community.

The talks that began last year between Washington and Havana on migration could open a small window of opportunity to address other topics such as democracy and human rights. The dictatorship loves the benefits from remittances and U.S. tourism but is allergic to discussing democracy related matters.

The new year in Latin America begins with many challenges and pending tasks but filled with great opportunities. Migration, security, democracy, human rights and fair trade are on the table. Let’s take the challenge together.

Arturo McFields Yescas is former ambassador of Nicaragua to the Organization of American States. Follow him on Twitter: @ArturoMcfields.