Over the past two weeks, two developments have led to greater resolve on China policy in Washington.
The shooting down of the Chinese balloon spotted over the U.S., plus the U.S. and India elevating their defense partnership in the spheres of critical and emerging technology, have contributed to the heightened determination in Washington.
The Chinese balloon spotted over several states, unfortunately, is not a new phenomenon. Such balloons have been spotted during previous administrations over Hawaii and Guam — even during the Trump administration when US-China relations were near their historical worst. Interestingly, it was only under the Biden administration that it was shot down and left in pieces.
The U.S. under Biden is taking no chances nor letting anything slide in its competition with China. When a sliver of hope was beginning to emerge in mending ties between the U.S. and China through Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s scheduled trip to Beijing, the balloon episode played spoilsport with Blinken postponing his trip.
However, the more significant development is the agreement signed with India. This agreement comes against the backdrop of the world’s largest democracy, India, and the world’s oldest, the U.S., elevating their bilateral partnership to address 21st century challenges in critical technologies, defense and even the space domain.
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval over two days at the end of January to finalize a technological partnership akin to the nuclear cooperation agreement signed in 2016. The two parties signed deals that proposed increased cooperation in artificial intelligence and advanced wireless technology between their research bodies and voiced support for joint production of defense technologies, armored infantry vehicles and artillery.
Furthermore, in a sign of changing times, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo’s meeting with Indian business and education leaders included national security officials. Over the last three years, the line between national security and trade has blurred, and finding security and business leaders under one roof underlines that development. Particularly, with India.
Since the Bush years, successive administrations have positioned India as a counterbalance to China, but business leaders, while publicly in favor and optimistic of such positioning, have privately expressed “India fatigue” and toned down expectations. This resulted from the slow movement of macroeconomic and structural reforms in India compared to China. To paraphrase the Indian external affairs minister, India was a decade late to implement economic reforms and ever since has been playing catch up to China.
However, with the recent intersection of national security and trade policymaking, and the perceived threat of China being a strong binding force, Washington has given business leaders a shot of adrenaline to get out of the “fatigue” and New Delhi has become aware of the risks of missing the proverbial bus on the fourth industrial revolution.
Of note, India has repeatedly faced the belligerence of China’s People’s Liberation Army at its border since 2020. This has provided an urgency to engage like-minded partners across the Indo-Pacific region. Moreover, under the Narendra Modi administration, the historically socio-capitalist country has taken a turn toward unbridled capitalism — though it still has a long way to go for laissez-faire. The administration has championed the private sector and launched initiatives such as “Make in India” to increase the share of manufacturing in its GDP and to transform its service-led exports into manufacturing-led exports. Furthermore, it has implemented several structural reforms and deregulated sectors to improve its standing among the ease of business rankings and subsequently become an attractive destination for global investors.
Nevertheless, India’s ecosystem to absorb semiconductor supply chains and advanced defense manufacturing is a work in progress in its nascent stages. While the so-called “China threat” could provide an impetus for rapid transformation nudged by the security apparatus, as the old saying goes, “Rome was not built in a day.” Complex ecosystems require time and policy consistency among other factors. Concepts such as “friend-shoring” hinge on national security and resiliency parameters over commercial goals of efficiency and productivity. Thus, the transformation of manufacturing ecosystems cannot become victims to the vagaries associated with partisan bickering in Washington and New Delhi.
Time will tell if Sullivan and Doval’s meeting had the impact of solidifying defense relations between the two democracies that diplomats of successive administrations in both countries have been attempting for the last two decades.
On balance, India could be the best bet for the U.S. in its competition with China. With this increased defense and technological cooperation, the U.S. could strike two birds with one stone. It could weaken Russia by snatching a portion of the market that is otherwise heavily reliant on Russia and strengthen an Indo-Pacific democracy that has a prevailing border dispute with China — negating any reason for bad blood as is the case with allies such as Korea, Japan or even Netherlands when brought into the fold against China.
Just last month, both Australia and Japan, two allies of the U.S., showed signs of going back to their old ways with China. As reported in Sydney Morning Herald, Australian CEOs are keen to travel to Beijing. In East Asia, the foreign ministers of Japan and China broke the ice and initiated discussions to improve ties. Both Australia and Japan are patently aware of China’s ability to weaponize economic interdependence, with Canberra even having firsthand experience of Beijing’s acts of economic coercion. Despite those experiences, countries working toward going back to business as usual are akin to the aphorism from the Bible’s Book of Proverbs, “As a dog returns to his vomit, so a fool repeats his folly.”
Considering these developments, along with President Biden’s comments in his State of the Union address that “winning the competition with China should unite all of us. We face serious challenges across the world,” and New Delhi’s decision to not dial back relations with Beijing make the two natural partners in not just maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific, but also orienting the fourth industrial revolution based on democratic values.
Akhil Ramesh is a fellow with the Pacific Forum. He has worked with governments, risk consulting firms and think tanks in the United States and India. Follow him on Twitter: Akhil_oldsoul.