President Biden’s surprise visit to Ukraine on Monday was a historic turning point in Russia’s war on Ukraine and a potential game-changer in the global struggle between democracies and autocracies.
Biden staked his own political fortunes, the legacy of his administration, and the international standing of the United States on what he reaffirmed in Kyiv as “our unwavering and unflagging commitment to Ukraine’s democracy, sovereignty and territorial integrity. … We will support Ukraine for as long as it takes.”
Congressional critics, distinct minorities in both parties, will decry the president’s open-ended commitment as “a blank check.” Given the global ramifications, it has been anything but that. The administration and NATO allies who follow America’s lead have been hesitant and cautious about the quality and quantity of arms they send to Ukraine and the pace at which they are delivering them.
Even some long-delayed systems that are finally arriving in Ukraine lack the needed ammunition, which is being shipped later. All these delays have cost Ukraine in lives lost and cities destroyed. Meanwhile, Russia has intensified its grinding assaults in the Donbas region, where waves of prison conscripts are attacking the outnumbered Ukrainian defenders.
Biden’s dramatic meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was a necessary corrective to some wavering of public (and even administration) support for the Ukraine effort. There have been hints that some in the administration may be inclined to pressure Ukraine for an earlier settlement negotiation than Zelensky’s government is prepared to undertake, and for territorial concessions that it is unwilling to make.
One unidentified administration official last week described the warnings that are being given to Ukraine’s leaders, based on congressional impatience: “We will continue to try to impress upon them that we can’t do anything and everything forever.”
Regarding the president’s words indicating an indefinite commitment, the same official said, “‘As long as it takes’ pertains to the amount of conflict. It doesn’t pertain to the amount of assistance.” That curious statement will raise questions about how solid America’s “rock-solid” commitment to Taiwan is.
Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, foresaw no victory for either side but a prolonged, grinding stalemate. He told the Financial Times, “It is unlikely that Russia is going to overrun Ukraine. It’s just not going to happen.” But he was equally skeptical that Ukraine could achieve its maximalist goals for the conflict: “It is also very, very difficult for Ukraine this year to kick the Russians out of every inch of Russian-occupied Ukraine. It’s not to say that it can’t happen … but it’s extraordinarily difficult. And it would require, essentially, the collapse of the Russian military.”
For long-suffering, but still grateful, Ukrainians and their Western supporters, there is a bitter irony in those administration expressions of muted pessimism. First, expectations of a quick Ukrainian collapse when Russia invaded proved to be spectacularly off base, thanks to the valor of Ukraine’s military and the brave determination of Zelensky and the Ukrainian people to defend their freedom and sovereignty.
Second, vital as Western arms were to enable Ukraine’s army to withstand and push back some of the Russian onslaught, they have been far short of what Zelensky and his generals requested to achieve a decisive military victory over Russia. The escalation fears of Biden and others in the West have constrained Ukraine’s strategy and virtually assured the long, costly stalemate.
Before the announcement of Biden’s trip, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-Texas) expressed the hope that Washington will increase its delivery of missiles to Ukraine and reverse its opposition to providing fighter jets. Kyiv is desperately seeking those systems in anticipation of a Russian offensive fortified with tens of thousands of new ground forces. The agonizingly long-sought Western tanks, committed by Germany and the U.S. two weeks ago, may not be delivered for months, at the earliest — not in time to withstand Russia’s expected new offensive.
“The longer they wait, the longer this conflict will prevail,” McCaul warned. And, he might have added, the greater will be administration and Western pressure on Ukraine to strike an unacceptable settlement deal with Russia.
While the West dithers in providing all that Ukraine needs to win, Russia’s few allies — international criminals in their own right — are increasing their support for the aggressor. Iran is providing Shaheed-126 drones to Russia, and North Korea has made arms deliveries for use by the Wagner Group, Russia’s mercenary army in Ukraine.
China, which has subverted Western economic sanctions by massively increasing its purchases of Russian oil, has been sending nonlethal material aid in violation of the sanctions. Having paid no unacceptable price for working against the world’s interests in stopping Russia’s aggression, Beijing may up the ante and provide its “no-limits strategic partner” with lethal systems.
“China is trying to have it both ways,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday. “Publicly, they present themselves as a country striving for peace in Ukraine. But privately … we’ve seen already over these past months the provision of nonlethal assistance that does go directly to aiding and abetting Russia’s war effort.”
Blinken said he told Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, that providing “materiel support to Russia’s war effort that would have a lethal effect … would have serious consequences on our own relationship, something that we do not need on top of the balloon incident that China is engaged in.”
Beijing has sought to portray Blinken as beseeching the Chinese for the meeting, the posture of American supplicant the Chinese Communist Party has been exploiting since 1971. If Blinken actually read the riot act to Wang, it could mean a healthy change of attitude in the Biden administration toward China.
Biden’s visit to Ukraine also could have beneficial spillover effects on the U.S.-China relationship, by conveying America’s resolve to stand by democratic allies and partners under attack by an authoritarian neighbor — especially if the visit offsets some of the more pessimistic comments emanating from other administration officials.
Joseph Bosco served as China country director for the secretary of Defense from 2005 to 2006 and as Asia-Pacific director of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief from 2009 to 2010. He served in the Pentagon when Vladimir Putin invaded Georgia and was involved in Department of Defense discussions about the U.S. response. Follow him on Twitter @BoscoJosephA.