As the West Bank burns, Palestinians are just a heartbeat away from civil war

To call the situation in Israel today “volatile” would be quite the understatement. Hamas is praising terrorists for their attacks against Israeli civilians in Tel Aviv. The Palestinian Authority is cutting off security coordination with Israel. A significant Israeli operation to clear terrorist strongholds in the West Bank has just been completed.

With the embers still burning in the Samarian Hills, the question is whether we are seeing the beginning of a Third Intifada.

But there is another shoe yet to drop. The death of the ailing 87-year-old President Mahmoud Abbas, whenever it happens, will make things significantly worse.

Abbas is an unpopular figure with his citizenry. Currently in the 18th year of his four-year term as president of the Palestinian Authority, he holds every major role in the Palestinian leadership, Fatah, the PLO and the security apparatus.

His passing will create a huge vacuum and a window of opportunity for a rogues gallery of characters who have been waiting in the wings to pounce. This includes Iranian-sponsored terrorists such as Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, as well as supporters of convicted murderers such as Marwan Barghouti and a myriad of corrupt PA officials just waiting for the opportunity to line their pockets.

Unfortunately, the best and brightest of Palestinian society are not likely to accede to senior positions to lead their people to a better tomorrow.

The Washington Institute’s “Sudden Succession Series, Palestinian Politics after Abbas,” asks how the U.S. might “adjust to the new situation.” There is no reason for America to be reactive and wait for Abbas’s passing. A Third Intifada is already brewing, there has been an uptick in Iranian involvement in the West Bank, and rockets are being fired from the West Bank toward Israeli cities for the first time in nearly two decades. The PA has lost control of the cities of Jenin, Nablus and Tulkram to Iranian allies Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Lion’s Den and Hamas.

The remnants of PA security forces in those areas still compete to kill and maim as many IDF soldiers and Israeli civilians as possible. Everyone who commits violent acts is celebrated as a hero or martyr, knowing the PA will pay them and their families compensation for their actions, better known in the U.S. as “Pay for Slay.”  

Congress passed the Taylor Force Act to stop payments to the PA until it stopped paying for and incentivizing terrorism. The Biden administration’s circumvention of the plain meaning of the Taylor Force Act to economically support the PA gets to the heart of the question of how America and Israel deal with the PA. Although Netanyahu doesn’t say it publicly, he wants the PA to be strengthened so that it can work with Israel on security coordination and not let anarchy reign in the West Bank.

For America, this is not about resolving the conflict but rather about lowering the flames before things get even more out of control. Israel may need to execute a more significant operation soon, similar to Operation Defensive Shield, which quelled the Second Intifada in 2002. It will cause a conflagration spilling over to Gaza and perhaps igniting Hezbollah and Iranian-controlled militias in Syria. The world will be outraged and call for Israel to be sanctioned.

The Biden administration is no fan of Israel’s current coalition. They interpret Israel’s expansion of settlements in response to Palestinian violence, and Israel’s lax prosecution of vigilante violence against Palestinian villages as unnecessary provocations, as inflaming a volatile situation that could spin out of control.

Jerusalem Post writer Herb Keinon believes Netanyahu cannot ignore the reality of the situation, or else he will end up in a confrontation with the Biden administration.

“Netanyahu must lay out incentives to the Palestinian Authority,” he writes. “Up until now, when security cooperation has worked with the PA, it worked because the Palestinians believed this would be the path to statehood. But if Netanyahu is blocking that path through word and action, then what incentive do they have for working with Israel?”

The Biden administration, meanwhile, will have to make some tough choices. Sitting on the sidelines with milquetoast statements calling for peace will only inflame an already explosive situation.

America’s most prominent pro-Israel organization, AIPAC, recently wrote a letter to its supporters regarding the increasingly volatile situation in the West Bank. “America must unequivocally stand by our ally Israel as it defends itself from terrorism, pressure the PA to increase its security cooperation with the Jewish State, and demand Palestinian leaders stop their anti-Israel incitement,” it reads. 

But if Netanyahu wants Biden on his side, he must make concessions.

Netanyahu now appears to be at his weakest since he first became prime minister over 25 years ago. He has to show true leadership and prioritize Israel’s security situation. The current Israeli operation just bought some time, and Israel will likely need a significant operation soon that could last months. Therefore, he must offer Biden some face-saving gestures if he wants full American support.

Netanyahu needs to be proactive and negotiate with Biden now. He will likely have to concede on settlement expansion for the time being and take charge of his far-right rabble-rousers as a quid pro quo for steadfast U.S. support for a long-term operation and putting pressure on the PA to work more closely with Israeli security.

For Netanyahu, getting half a loaf is better than getting none.

Eric R. Mandel is director of the Middle East Political Information Network.