Last week, President Joe Biden sat down with United Kingdom Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in London over a cup of tea — as British a tradition as possible.
The president stopped in London on his way to the NATO Summit in Vilnius, joining Sunak but also having an audience with King Charles III, the newly coronated monarch. The visit, and recent bilateral announcements, were remarkable not for any significant policy changes or developments. Instead, they were rather measured and yeoman-like, reflecting current realities — and that makes them of far greater value to both countries than lofty rhetoric.
By any measure, the relationship now is far stronger than it has been in recent years at the political level. The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union in 2016 left a sour taste in Washington. The resulting post-Brexit political turmoil within the Conservative Party and, consequently, in 10 Downing Street, made American policymakers wary of leaning too far forward into the relationship.
While the bar was admittedly low after Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s tenure, Sunak has breathed new life into the political relationship, even if it was viewed — erroneously — as being met with slightly chillier feelings early on. Sunak’s managerial assertion of grip is providing a renewed sense of constancy and, it is hoped, continuity, at least for the time being.
It is important also to note that the practical relationship between the intelligence communities of both countries and the military-to-military partnership has remained and will remain unchanged, barring any dramatic shifts in American politics which, sadly, could well be on the horizon. A return of Donald Trump to the Oval Office, a distinct possibility, could strain the relationship not just at the political level but at a practical level, as well.
In the near term, certainly, through the end of the Biden presidency and Sunak tenure, the auguries for the relationship with the United Kingdom are strong, which is a good thing given the litany of challenges both are facing in the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific. The recognition of these challenges and a shared vision for addressing them via sensible policy is underpinning and informing the bilateral relationship and should be welcomed.
Russia’s war against Ukraine created an opportunity for the United Kingdom to reassert its role in continental security. While it has long supported Ukraine through Operational Orbital, the Ministry of Defence was one of the earliest and strongest supporters of Kyiv, a role it has maintained throughout the nearly 18 months of war. London is the second-largest financial supporter of Kyiv providing over $6 billion in military assistance through the end of May 2023. Washington and London, however, disagree over the pathway for Ukraine’s entry into NATO, agreeing in principle that it should happen but not about how the process will accommodate Kyiv. The U.K. also disagrees with America’s decision to send Ukraine dual-purpose improved conventional munitions, also known as “cluster bombs.”
Ultimately, although it is no longer in the European Union, the United States needs a strong United Kingdom working with Europe to ensure continental security and stability by, through and with NATO. Indeed, Washington will be watching to see what the now-delayed Defence Command Paper says about London’s military intentions and to see whether the Treasury will be able to match the Ministry of Defence’s ambitions with commensurate resources. A stronger London will only help Washington’s desire to pivot towards the Indo-Pacific, a move matched by the U.K.’s tilt toward the region. It is here that developments are equally as positive, most recently via the Atlantic Declaration, unveiled in June during Sunak’s visit to Washington.
A series of broad policy initiatives and principles that seek to strengthen the bilateral economic ties between Washington and London, the declaration first and foremost, recognizes the shift of the geopolitical center of gravity to the Indo-Pacific. It also recognizes the complexity of the challenge that China represents beyond the presentation of a military threat. Beijing’s efforts to dominate next-generation technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing and synthetic biology (among others) require closer cooperation between allies such as the U.S. and U.K.
The Atlantic Declaration’s focus on information-sharing, joint technology development, reduction of export controls and standardization of date regimes is all a recognition of the need to remove barriers to this cooperation within the Anglosphere.
Most emblematic of the changing cooperation dynamic, and the new geopolitical realities, is the AUKUS accord. While most attention focused on the submarine component of the agreement between Australia, the U.K. and the U.S. it is the second pillar of nuclear technology and information-sharing that marks a sea-change in America’s approach to relations in the Anglosphere. If executed properly and fully, information-sharing and joint industrial policy will markedly strengthen and deepen the bilateral relationship, positioning for strategic competition and beyond.
The Atlantic Declaration reflects the administration’s growing recognition that in order to be successful in competing with Beijing, it must empower its allies, including the U.K. The United States has neither the power nor the will to act alone in the Indo-Pacific or on all fronts of this complex competitive landscape. Ceding some leadership initiative to London is a way of both empowering London and leveraging allied dynamism.
The forthcoming summit on artificial intelligence scheduled for this autumn will see the U.K. in the driver’s seat of a critical issue. It will certainly benefit 10 Downing Street, leveraging the U.K.’s growing role in AI, but it also provides a venue for allied nations to cooperate in the face of the behemoth that is China in this critical technology.
The devil is, as always, in the details. Both Washington and London must do their parts at home to resource commitments to defense and security and operationalize AUKUS and the declaration. While a free trade agreement (promised by the Conservative Party) would be welcome, it is a far more complex proposition to secure. It should, however, not stand in the way of practical policies to address real and pressing challenges.
Here, both the White House and 10 Downing Street are taking smart steps to strengthen the relationship and move beyond simple talking points and cliches about the “special relationship.”
Joshua C. Huminski is the director of the Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence & Global Affairs at the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress. He is also a book reviewer for the Diplomatic Courier and a fellow at George Mason University’s National Security Institute. He can be found on Twitter at @joshuachuminski.