A fall victory for Ukraine can avert another winter of targeted brutality

Ukraine and much of the world remember Oct. 10, 2022. That day, with a massive missile strike, Russia started its tactics of terror and destruction of energy infrastructure facilities. Twenty-three Ukrainians were killed, and more than 100 were injured. These missile attacks of varying intensity continued until this summer.   

Russia’s goal was to immerse Ukraine in cold and darkness, break the spirit of the people, provoke dissatisfaction with the actions of the authorities and push Ukrainian leadership to negotiate with the aggressor. It spared no effort and means for this, although at that time the stocks of missiles in Russia were not large, according to reports.  

Ukraine did go dark. Electricity was on a schedule. We became used to living in search of generators. But we built points of invincibility, withstood and persevered. 

As fall approaches, we are aware that this winter coming will also be hard. But we are willing to fight. And to do it, we need help in five key areas. 

Energy

In the early months of Russian missile terror, 50 percent of the Ukrainian energy system was affected. Damages reached $10 billion, the capacity to produce electricity decreased by 61 percent and 22 of our 36 power plants were damaged or completely destroyed. It’s hard to think of an energy system in the world that has suffered such blows as the Ukrainian one.  

According to the Ukrainian government, 60 percent of the planned works on the restoration of this infrastructure have been completed. But even without new missile attacks, it would be challenging for us to get through the next winter. Nevertheless, we are restoring, protecting and searching for equipment at the state level. And, on a personal level, citizens have learned where generators are, how many power banks there are and how much technical water is needed to keep things running.

We admire our energy workers and have infinite faith in our air defense forces to protect what they have restored. It is still critical for us to get advanced weapons and air defense systems on time. We don’t need them because we just want it. The truth is that such aid would help us move forward with minimal losses and bring peace as soon as possible.

Security 

Before Christmas, Ukrainian kids were asking how Santa Claus would bring gifts if air defense systems were working. And they are working well. With the arrival of such means as Patriot and IRIS-T, the effectiveness of the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces increased to 80 percent. Unfortunately, it is unlikely that we will meet the coming winter with F-16 fighter jets. They could further strengthen the defense of our cities against Russian missiles and drones.    

After all, despite the imposed sanctions, Russia has learned to circumvent them and establish the production of missiles. We are talking about hypersonic Kinzhals, Iskanders, Kalibr cruise missiles and others. The enemy is revising its tactics and reportedly stockpiling resources for winter attacks. 

We have only two ways to prevent this — strengthening the air defense system and leveling the loopholes in the sanctions pressure that Russia is currently using. 

Sanctions and Russia’s Games  

Despite the unprecedented number of sanctions imposed on Russia, their effect is somewhat different from what we expected. Restrictions work, but not quickly enough, and Ukraine doesn’t have much time. The main goal of sanctions pressure is to force Russia to stop the war because war is expensive. Russia was getting money from exports, and if that income was not limited critically for the Kremlin, including the elimination of all methods of circumvention, then the very meaning of sanctions pressure was lost.  

Russia is gradually adapting to the influence of these limitations and there are risks of the economy returning even to pre-war levels. How is it possible? Due to parallel import through third countries. This phenomenon is so widespread that logistics companies offer this as a turnkey service. The export of certain resources from Russia to the West still functions in the same “gray” way. And although the prices of parallel import goods (in fact — contraband) are increasing, this allows the enemy’s economy to stay afloat and produce more than the already mentioned missiles.  

The unprecedented increase in trade between the Russian Federation, third countries and the West does not go unnoticed, but there is no reaction. In addition, Moscow finds other markets for its raw materials and goods and this means more money which is then spent on weapons that kill Ukrainians.    

This winter will be difficult for our partners as well. Election campaigns are starting and Russia is skillfully playing and manipulating public opinion. It is trying to divert attention from Ukraine to convince the world to stop supporting it and focus on internal problems. It is really hard to resist this temptation, but the strength of democracies lies precisely in unity and the ability to distinguish manipulation from ideas.  

Internal Challenges 

In recent months, Ukraine has been rocked by corruption scandals involving purchases for the military. We are talking about food and clothes. It is very painful for society because there is not a single person in the country whose loved ones, friends or relatives are not involved in the army. And even a shadow of distrust in the Ministry of Defense is unacceptable. 

So the government replaced the minister of Defense. Instead of Oleksii Reznikov, who did a great job that led us from the refusal to supply Ukraine with Stingers to the fact that we are now waiting for the F-16, the ministry will now be headed by a former member of the “Golos” faction, (I am the leader of the Golos Party) Rustem Umerov. Umerov and his work in the State Property Fund, which attracted a lot of funds to the national budget, are widely respected in our country. This personnel decision is also special because Umerov is a Crimean Tatar. And this is a clear signal that Crimea remains a priority for Ukraine, no matter what others may think about it. 

Until the war is over, we need support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia to continue — no matter what happens in the political arenas of Ukraine or in our allies’ countries.

Winter and victory 

Ukrainians haven’t asked one question for a long time: “When will the war end?” Instead, we are silently working toward an end, each in our own areas. We know that Putin has switched to a war of attrition but we still hope for victory. Our expectations may be unexpected for many, but we want this war to end as quickly as possible, with as few casualties as possible. Any pause or negotiations now would be a postponed war with Russia, which our children will have to fight. We cannot let this happen. We are not tired, because there can be no fatigue when it comes to our survival. We have come a long way and now need to take the last steps to weaken our aggressor. 

Ukraine’s victory is within reach, but we need help. And our partners have the resources. With their aid, we have a chance to put an end to Russian aggression today, and that chance should be taken. Russia’s war is being closely watched by authoritarian regimes in the world. And we expect our united punch back will be tough enough to ensure the victory of democracy.

Kira Rudik is a member of Parliament in Ukraine and the leader of Golos party.