The recent killings of Israeli civilians are horrific. There can be no justification for the slaughter of innocents, whether in Israel or Gaza. But if history is any guide, the worst in this war is yet to come: trauma almost inevitably triggers an extreme reaction. These are textbook conditions for ethnic cleansing.
The Israeli military is now launching what it has called an “extensive attack” on Gaza. One need only listen to the words of those in charge to fear that ethnic cleansing may be afoot. “We are fighting human animals and we are acting accordingly,” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Monday as he announced a complete siege of Gaza, blocking any food or water. More than 300,000 Palestinians have already been displaced. Without a hint of irony, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told civilians in Gaza to “get out now.” But under siege, Gazans have nowhere to go.
Ethnic cleansing has many warning signs. The first is a prolonged pattern of discrimination and exclusionary rhetoric.
In Rwanda, as in Bosnia, genocide was preceded by recurring waves of ethnic violence. Last year, Israeli forces killed 146 Palestinians in the West Bank alone, including 34 children. Severe restrictions on movement in the occupied territories amount to what many human rights organizations have referred to as conditions of apartheid. Over the past decade, surveys have found about half of Jewish Israelis favoring the expulsion of the Palestinian populations; today that rate is likely much higher.
Official Israeli rhetoric has grown only more extreme in recent years. In the leadup to this round of violence, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich had called for wiping out Palestinian villages. Israel’s national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, is a former member of a group so radical that it was designated a terrorist organization by the Israeli government. These far-right extremists cannot be trusted to respect the lives of innocent Palestinian civilians.
The second sign is war. Uncertainty and acute insecurity are key drivers of mass ethnic violence. When faced with an existential threat, governments tend to abandon peacetime constraints. Genocides in Iraq, Rwanda, and Myanmar all followed armed insurrection, while the Armenian genocide only accelerated under conditions of war.
Traumatic events are even more likely to trigger ethnic violence. Rwanda’s genocide came after the sudden assassination of the country’s president. Hamas’s surprise attack has been referred to as Israel’s 9/11.
A third warning sign includes individual motives. After the demise of Yugoslavia’s socialist party, Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic held on to power through a deliberate strategy of ethnic violence. Netanyahu today faces an unprecedented domestic political crisis. This moment affords him a unique window of opportunity to unite the country against a common enemy. Ethnic violence often makes for good politics.
Fourth is the technological capacity for mass violence. Despite the terrible toll inflicted by its surprise attack, Hamas’s makeshift army of baggers and speedboats will ultimately stand no chance against Israel’s mighty military. Since 2008, conflicts between Israel and Hamas have resulted in more than 20 times as many victims on the Palestinian side. And Netanyahu has made it clear that this war will not be like the ones that came before. The imbalance of power is so massive that there is reason to fear civilian deaths in Gaza could number in the tens of thousands.
The final and most crucial factor is international support. After speaking to President Biden, Netanyahu reported back that Western leaders had “promised Israel would have freedom of action to continue this battle.” No official U.S. statement has directly urged Israel to show restraint.
Ethnic cleansing and genocide can happen anywhere. It happens when international powers provide carte blanche, a blank check or signal of unconditional support in the face of expected violence. In Bangladesh and Guatemala, the U.S. military provided support to the perpetrators of mass violence. In Rwanda and Bosnia, the international community remained indifferent in the face of genocide.
Today, a massive Israeli army is lining the border of the Gaza Strip. Defense Minister Gallant has pledged to “set Gaza back 50 years.” Americans are rightly appalled at the terrible loss of life in Israel and Gaza. There will be a time for mourning and a time for assigning blame. Now is the time to stop the violence. Do not sit back and allow this response to spiral into ethnic cleansing. Do not give carte blanche to Netanyahu.
Johannes Lang, a researcher on democratization and U.S. foreign policy, is a John F. Kennedy Scholar at the Harvard Kennedy School.