Hamas tried to sabotage Israeli-Saudi normalization; US can make it backfire

Before Oct. 7, the biggest Middle East story was the growing prospect of a normalization agreement between the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Israel.

The thawing of Saudi-Israeli relations was unmistakable. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in late September, “We’re getting closer to peace every day.” Earlier this month, Israeli Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi was photographed celebrating Sukkot with the ritual lulav and etrog in Riyadh.  

Hamas’s grisly and barbaric terrorist attack was a transparent effort to forestall a U.S.-Saudi-Israel deal and, more broadly, Israel’s continued integration into the Middle Eastern community of nations. However, the tremendous show of support that Washington has shown and continues to show for Israel, rather than derailing the deal, demonstrates exactly what Riyadh stands to gain by signing on with the U.S. and Israel.

By maintaining stalwart support for Israel, the U.S. can further demonstrate to the Saudis the benefit of a normalization deal. This provides all the more reason for the U.S. to aid Israel in its push back against Hamas, and to do so decisively.    

Hamas’s interest in derailing a U.S.-Saudi-Israel pact is clear. Such a normalization agreement would isolate Hamas from the Arab world. Anything good for the Palestinian people in the deal would weaken Hamas’s control and undermine its singular purpose of destroying Israel. A normalization agreement would enable U.S. Central Command to further expand and implement a regional security architecture, which would collectively enable the U.S. and its partners to neutralize the very types of asymmetric military threats that Hamas and all of Iran’s proxies pose to the region. 

President Biden has offered unequivocal support to Israel’s cause. The U.S. aircraft carrier Gerald Ford and its escorts have already arrived in the eastern Mediterranean, with the Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group now on its way. This demonstrates the overwhelming military capabilities that Washington can bring to bear, as warning and deterrent to Hezbollah and others not to insert themselves into this conflict. It also leaves Biden with more options, should they unwisely choose to do so. 

In January, a very similar carrier strike group participated in “Juniper Oak,” the most complex joint military exercise in the history of the American-Israeli security relationship. The exercise showcased to friends, foes, and those on the fence that no nation, let alone terrorist group, holds a candle to the combined capabilities of the U.S. and Israel. It demonstrated that the Israeli Defense Forces were interoperable with the U.S. military in every domain — land, air, sea, space, and cyber. That’s an incredibly rare capability, and there can be no question that Riyadh sees the possibilities for itself and wants in.

Bin Salman aims to transform Saudi Arabia’s economy through his Vision 2030 plan. He understands, however, that the plan can only succeed if Saudi Arabia is secure. A strong defensive capability that is interoperable with the U.S. military is a prerequisite for bin Salman’s economic revolution. In short, he needs what Israel has.

Understandably, normalization talks will now face delay. Israel is singularly focused on ensuring that Hamas is never able to terrorize Israelis again. For its part, Israel can assist in bringing the Saudis back to the negotiating table swiftly by focusing its military response on Hamas and working to limit civilian harm. America can do its part by continuing to aid and enable Israel’s success in this difficult mission.

Hamas aimed to disrupt Saudi-Israeli normalization, but Washington’s rapid response following Hamas’s atrocities will provide Saudi Arabia and the rest of the region a second, live-fire demonstration of the security and assurance that comes from partnership with the U.S. and Israel. 

Juniper Oak was an exercise, but what is transpiring now is not. With close support from the U.S. military, Israel will defend itself from those who seek to do it harm and restore its security. When the dust settles, Hamas’ ghastly attack, designed to terrorize and isolate Israel, will have backfired, instead demonstrating why normalization with Israel and closer bonds with the U.S. are indispensable to Saudi Arabia’s future.  

Jonathan Lord is a senior fellow and the director of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. He is a former staff member for the House Armed Services Committee, Iraq country director in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, and political military analyst in the Department of Defense.