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Everyone’s a security expert — until the conflict’s outside of Gaza

An Azerbaijani serviceman on patrol on Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2023, near Khankendi, Azerbaijan, also known as Stepanakert to Armenians. (AP Photo/Aziz Karimov)
An Azerbaijani serviceman on patrol on Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2023, near Khankendi, Azerbaijan, also known as Stepanakert to Armenians. (AP Photo/Aziz Karimov)

One extraordinary thing about the recent unrest in the Middle East is the realization of just how many self-proclaimed foreign policy experts there are out there. People who never post on social media about any other aspect of international affairs have apparently been hiding their knowledge about one of the most complicated and long-standing challenges the international community faces.

Perhaps those basking in virtue-signaling might enjoy expanding their calls for cease-fires, humanitarian aid and justice regarding other conflicts. As security consultants who keep their eye on all the places in the world experiencing violence, we’d like to help these surely well-meaning individuals by sharing with them details of some other conflicts going on around the world.

Sudan/South Sudan

Sudan is the sad winner amongst quite a few unfortunate African contenders when it comes to highlighting horrible humanitarian situations that self-crowned security “experts” might want to sink their fingers into.

Since April, the country has been thrust into a civil war as two powerful armed groups battle for control of the country. The situation in the Darfur region in the west of the country remains particularly dire and volatile. In the last 20 years, it is estimated that over 300,000 civilians have been slaughtered in this conflict. While the pace of killing has thankfully slowed, in July, over 200,000 people were displaced by continued violence.

Responsibility for a majority of the violence falls to the Rapid Support Forces, an outgrowth of the infamous Janjaweed, Arab militias notorious for “inducing ethnically motivated killings, targeted abuses against human rights activists and defenders, conflict-related sexual violence, and looting and burning of communities,” according to the U.S. State Department. The funding of the RSF has been linked to business interests in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

Parties of concern: Both Sudanese warring parties but in particular the RSF, UAE and Saudi Arabia. 

Xinjiang

The situation in the western Chinese province of Xinjiang is more of a slow boil rather than a bloody slaughter. Xinjiang has historically not been a part of China, which has sought to rectify that detail and move forward with its colonial ambitions by seeking to essentially erase the culture of the local population of Uyghur Muslims. China has drastically restricted religious participation and the teaching of local languages, created a suffocating surveillance state and engaged in forced abortions and sterilizations of local women. It has also encouraged the migration of ethnic Han Chinese to the region and incentivized intra-marriage. Most horribly it has created concentration camps that are estimated to incarcerate more than 1 million Uyghurs while forcing them to do slave labor and engage in “reeducation” about their views on China.

Parties of concern: The Chinese Communist Party. The CCP gets extra points for perpetuating a similar campaign in Tibet while menacing Taiwan, a free, democratic society, with invasion.

Azerbaijan

Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought two full-blown wars over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is within Azerbaijan’s borders but is populated by ethnic Armenians who don’t wish to be ruled by Azerbaijan. The region had been blockaded by Azerbaijan-backed activists for nearly a year, causing severe shortages of medicine, food and fuel.

Last month, Azerbaijan completed a bloody attack on the region to decisively bring it to heel. Those military operations have killed hundreds and injured many more and caused the exodus of 120,000 Armenians under pressure to accept Azerbaijan citizenship or face violent repercussions. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said his country would rule over the region “with an iron fist.”

Parties of concern: Azerbaijan.

Mediterranean Refugee Crisis

A slow-motion humanitarian crisis continues to unfold in the Mediterranean, where regular incidents of boats sinking result in the deaths of hundreds. The United Nations estimates that over 2,500 have died just this year seeking to make the crossing from Africa to Europe.

Many of the refugees are fleeing war, poverty and disease in some of the poorest and most violent-wracked societies in the world. The flow of refugees mostly comes from Libya, which is essentially a failed state in which human traffickers use the security vacuum to conduct their loathsome business. The lack of security in Libya exposes traumatized refugees to high degrees of violence, but numbers are scarce on the number of people killed or otherwise violated on their way to the dangerous Mediterranean crossing.

Once onboard ships they face attack by the European-funded Libyan coast guard, who regularly fire on ships with refugees. If they survive these attacks and their rickety boats make it to Europe, they are often turned away by the authorities. Those who do make it to land face ugly conditions in refugee camps.

Parties of concern: Pretty much every European nation, but in particular those countries on the Mediterranean. While Europe can’t take in every refugee, they can handle many more and certainly adopt a more humane approach to those that reach their shores. Libya also deserves scrutiny here but there is no true delivery address to register a complaint.

When providing advice on difficult security situations, we try to take a dispassionate view of the situations we’re evaluating. Many of the conflicts highlighted above have seen more deaths than the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. Some of them feature examples of ethnic cleansing, sexual violence and atrocities that are well beyond anything that’s been reported in the latest round of Israeli-Palestinian violence.         

Yet none of these examples of human suffering gets remotely the same amount of attention as the decades-long fight between Israel and the Palestinians. Why do you think that is?

Don Aviv CPP, PSP, PCI, is president of Interfor International. Jeremy Hurewitz is head of Interfor Academy, the creator of Sell Like a Spy, and a Policy Advisor on National Security at the Joseph Rainey Center for Public Policy.

Tags Armenia–Azerbaijan relations Human rights abuses in Xinjiang province Israel-Hamas conflict Mediterranean Sea Politics of the United States refugees South Sudan

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