The true price of Hamas’s hostage endgame

In the world of kidnapping, there are generally two types of motivation: ransom and politics. 

Kidnap-for-ransom is more common and more conducive to a positive resolution because it is about money — a paid ransom brings the abductee home. Kidnapping for political reasons is more difficult and often leads to a more protracted situation.

The world of security consultants responding to kidnapping cases is a little-known industry, but one that quietly works daily to free hostages. Coupled with a product called special risk insurance, every day around the world people who have been taken hostage are freed after ransoms have been paid. The consultants involved are highly trained individuals whose work is informed by intelligence gathered about marketplace conditions. The consultant typically has a sense of what American hostages are being ransomed for by criminal gangs in, say, Venezuela.

To that extent, while Hamas has not made any specific demands thus far about what it would take to get the hostages released, one can imagine that the release of thousands of prisoners held by the Israelis may very well be the price it will demand.

Many hostage negotiators have been trained on a model that tries to understand the hostage-taker’s motivation as instrumental, expressive or high-risk. Instrumental means that the hostage-takers have a particular goal in mind: freeing their comrades or gaining money. Expressive motivation is about a grievance; hostage-takers might be upset over perceived second-rate treatment. 

The Hamas hostage situation is particularly challenging because you could attribute all three of these motivations to them. They surely want to use the hostages for some instrumental goal, most probably the release of members of Hamas held in Israeli jails. They manifest expressive motivation by professing their odious philosophy of working toward Israel’s destruction in highlighting the reasons for their actions. Finally, they have certainly demonstrated high-risk behavior with their barbaric actions on 10/7. Does anyone at this point doubt Hamas’ ability, and frankly desire, to kill any Israelis they have in custody?

One of the factors that comes up in longer hostage situations is maintenance. The hostage takers must meet the basic needs of food and medical care for their captives. This can be a challenge as time goes on in resource-deprived environments. The hostages range from a nine-month-old baby to several octogenarians and the need for everything from formula to insulin could strain Hamas’s ability to maintain the well-being of the hostages and impact their calculation of their utility or potential release. But Hamas likely anticipated Israel’s strong reaction to 10/7 and it is known that it has stockpiled fuel, food and medical supplies at the expense of the civilian population it governs.   

The use of third-party intermediaries is often essential in political kidnapping cases. When two sides hate each other the way Israel and Hamas do, the only way to keep a dialogue alive is through third-party intermediaries that are trusted by both sides. There are ongoing efforts, likely out of Qatar, where some Hamas officials are based, to continue a dialogue through intermediaries that has seen four hostages released.

In the kidnapping world, time is our friend. Time cools emotions and weakens resolve; it allows new creative ideas about a deal to develop, and the philosophy is that every day a hostage isn’t killed is a good day. 

Time also gives tactical operators more of a chance to plan for a hostage rescue. Israel is one of the most capable countries in the world when it comes to carrying out this type of rescue — the Entebbe raid in 1976 is still a source of huge pride in Jewish communities. 

With the Israel Defense Forces on the ground in Gaza and gathering intelligence, each day offers the chance to get closer to the hostages. Any hostages released are also a boon to those intelligence collection efforts, though Hamas is likely keeping many of them separate so no one group knows too much about the overall situation.

However, a tactical assault to free them is extremely risky, and it could lead to the deaths of many hostages. With Hamas not executing the hostages — at least not yet — Israel is likely proceeding very carefully as it gathers intelligence and considers different options.

It is important that any hostage release be greeted with positive acknowledgment to encourage further releases. Israel might be reluctant to strike a deal with Hamas, which they have pledged to destroy, but the world knows that Israel has a long memory. It famously hunted down and assassinated the conspirators who planned the Munich massacre of Israeli athletes at the Olympics in 1972.

Consistent pressure must be put on the hostage takers to release the people they have abducted. That’s why we believe that calls for a ceasefire are misguided if they are not accompanied by the demand for the release of all the hostages. It is important to keep in context why the current violence is taking place — the horrible pogrom unleashed in Israel on 10/7 and the abduction of over 240 hostages. 

The world owes these hostages our commitment to do whatever it takes to bring them home — that should be the focus. 

Stephen J. Romano was the former chief hostage negotiator at the FBI and is a member of Interfor Academy. Jeremy Hurewitz is the head of Interfor Academy, a policy advisor on national security at the Rainey Center and author of the forthcoming book “Sell Like a Spy.”