Engage Central Asia and keep it from falling back into Russia’s orbit

The results of the Russia-Ukraine war will have a profound effect on several regions bordering Russia. Most significantly, a Ukrainian victory, if achieved, will weaken Russia and boost the development of closer political, economic and security ties between Central Asia and the West. Such an outcome would better protect the region from China’s pursuit of regional hegemony and provide Washington and Brussels with committed strategic and business partners.

To enhance national consolidation, state resilience, and protection from potential hegemons, the Central Asian countries, led by Kazakhstan, are pursuing a strategy of international engagement and closer ties with the U.S. and European Union. In 2023, the Kazakh government relaunched the Astana International Forum as a platform for dialogue on looming global challenges and to highlight the region’s strategic importance. The EU is also planning a high-level summit with the Central Asian governments in early 2024.

A Russian victory in Ukraine could reverse Central Asia’s pro-Western orientation by generating new pressures to return the region to Moscow’s orbit. By the same token, a clear Ukrainian triumph in liberating all its territories would signal that aggressive states cannot pursue the partition of neighbors by claiming they are defending their co-ethnics, as the Russians did in Ukraine.

This has profound implications for Central Asia, and for Kazakhstan in particular, which hosts a sizeable Russian minority.

The foundations of Kazakhstan’s independence were laid down by Nursultan Nazarbayev, the country’s first president, by focusing on four main pillars: strong institutions, a balanced foreign policy, economic growth based on foreign trade and investment, and the consolidation of national identity. The current president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has continued this successful strategy, as have other Central Asian states, such as Uzbekistan.

Nazarbayev’s vision helped to develop Kazakhstan into an economic engine for Central Asia and a bridge between Asia, Europe and the Middle East, accounting for approximately 70 percent of total foreign direct investment flows into the region. Astana is chairing the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation in 2024 and is focused on the construction of the Middle Corridor, or the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), connecting China and Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. This will halve the current transport time across the Indian Ocean.

Kazakhstan pioneered Western investment in the region and developed economic ties with China. However, Astana’s economic ambitions are constrained by its strong economic ties with Russia. Around 80 percent of Kazakhstan’s oil exports to Europe go through Russian pipelines, and Russia remains Astana’s largest trade partner, accounting for up to 40 percent of non-oil exports.

Kazakhstan has tried to maintain economic relations with Russia while not running afoul of the sanctions regime against Moscow. The region also depends on Russia as a destination for migrant laborers. If Moscow remains aggressive, Central Asian countries will need Western support in connecting to the outside world through energy and trade routes that bypass Russia. Kazakhstan is already expanding the capacity of its Caspian ports and transportation links to increase east-west trade across the region.

Some European states are poised to expand their connections with Central Asia. As Russian oil exports to the EU have virtually collapsed since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has become the Union’s third-largest oil supplier, after Norway and the U.S.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Central Asia in November 2023 highlighted the region’s increasing importance to Europe’s supply of nuclear and fossil fuels. As France is heavily dependent on nuclear energy, it is seeking greater volumes of uranium, and in return, Kazakhstan hopes to obtain French investment in developing its own nuclear power industry.

The U.S. cannot offer direct security guarantees to Central Asia, but it can demonstrate its commitment to stability and growth through deeper economic and diplomatic engagement. The U.S. has invested about $62 billion into Kazakhstan’s economy since the country gained independence and can benefit from the ongoing privatization of major state-owned companies. America can help Kazakhstan, which has an estimated 40 percent of the world’s uranium reserves and abundant rare earth minerals, to expand its processing capabilities. It can also directly assist all Central Asian states in countering jihadist terrorism, reducing drug trafficking and devising ways of sharing water resources in a region deeply affected by climate change.  

In a landmark event in New York in September 2023, the first-ever C5+1 Presidential Summit, between President Biden and the five Central Asian presidents, outlined their commitment to a “Security, Economic, and Energy Partnership.” Among other initiatives, the summit proposed launching a dialogue about critical minerals such as chromium, copper and lithium. These are essential for expanding clean energy technologies.

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will benefit substantially, as Washington is keen to limit its dependence on Russian and Chinese minerals and curtail Beijing’s global dominance in that market. All such steps to enhance trade and economic development will strengthen the security and independence of Central Asia.

Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington and author of “Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture.”