Theresa May’s defeat: Excellent at governing, terrible at politics

British Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to step down is the right move for Britain’s Conservative Party, even if it is the last resort.

As an American working for the United Kingdom government — first under Prime Minister David Cameron, when he decided to hold the European Union referendum, and then under May as she negotiated a Brexit deal with the political odds against her — I found her to be tough but well-intended. The deal she arrived at balanced the division in the U.K. to support a close economic relationship but a separation on immigration with the EU. Her downfall was catering too much to the Conservative Party and not realizing that Brexit was her albatross.

One of her most catastrophic mistakes was calling a general election, which caused her to lose her majority in Parliament and become reliant on the Democratic Unionist Party, a unionist political party in Northern Ireland. She also established red lines from which she had to retreat — the big one being willing to walk away with no deal on March 29, 2019.

As a former U.K. civil servant, I often heard the complaint that Brexit was consuming the U.K. government — and it certainly did require a lot of attention, time and resources. However, in her almost three years, she also published an industrial strategy, joined forces with others to secure a deal on Iran, and made progress on establishing green policies.

May was excellent at governing but terrible at being a politician. She did not play “the game,” the one we all know well in Washington: Did you shake enough people’s hands, kiss enough babies, tweet enough selfies?

Rather than owning the fact that she would never be known for anything outside of Brexit, she never recognized that could empower her to ignore the politics and double down on her plan for the people. If she had allowed herself to go off script and speak in words that the British public would have understood, rather than repeating “Brexit means Brexit,” she might still be in office to close the Brexit negotiations.

Instead, the leadership contest that has been bubbling under the surface since her first failed Parliament vote in January is now at full boil. Parliamentarian and former foreign secretary Boris Johnson is the favorite in the polls to succeed her, and his charisma and ability to beat Labour in the next general election means he is well positioned to win, despite being prone to gaffes. But, like the Democratic Party’s pool of candidates in the U.S., it will be a wide and wild race with lots of inflated promises on the campaign trail.  

Former work and pensions secretary Esther McVey and international development secretary Rory Stewart already have put their names in the hat; at least a dozen more are under active consideration, including foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt, former education secretary Michael Gove, defense secretary Penny Mordaunt, home secretary Sajid Javid and Graham Brady, former chairman of the 1922 Committee of Tory MPs. Whoever wins the leadership contest in the Conservative Party, they still face bad arithmetic in Parliament, including the looming deadline of Oct. 31 to achieve consensus.

The next leader will also have to deal with the controversy over the Northern Irish backstop — an insurance policy to avoid a hard border with custom checks between Ireland and Northern Ireland — is something that should never be needed or used if politicians in the U.K. and the EU do their jobs and have a deal in place before the end of the implementation period. Ultimately, some sort of fail-safe is necessary, especially if British politicians want an eventual U.S.-U.K. free trade agreement with this Congress, where Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), an active Irish-American leader, chairs the House Ways and Means Committee.

What should the next leader learn from May’s mistakes? First, people don’t want to be backed into a corner. Canceling Brexit will not be supported as an alternative.

Next, connect with the people of the U.K. and members of Parliament at every stage of the negotiation process. May hid a lot of the “sausage-making” process of the negotiations away from the public space, but this did not help her secure the votes she needed in Parliament.

At least May will be taking one for the team, hosting President Trump for his official state visit on June 3 before she leaves office on June 7, freeing-up the agenda for the next leader to carve a path forward that could diverge more from Trump’s administration.

Ultimately, the EU likely will come to regret allowing this to happen — not helping May more in the Brexit negotiations. There is no way for the U.K., one of the oldest democracies in the world, to walk away from fulfilling the will of the people to deliver Brexit. This will push the new leader to advocate for changes and policies that will mean more negative, economic ramifications for both the U.K. and the EU, in order to get the votes needed in Parliament.

Kate Greer is former chief of communications on Brexit, Trade and the Economy for the British Embassy in Washington and is senior director of Clyde Group, a Washington-based public relations and public affairs firm. Follow her on Twitter @katestylepetite.