Vladimir Putin knew perfectly well that if anything happened to Alexei Navalny while he was in jail the international outrage would be huge.
Over the last year, the Kremlin did everything in its power — which is a lot — to arrive at this outcome. Navalny was Putin’s personal prisoner. This ensured that nothing could happen to Alexei unless the regime wanted it to.
The Russian opposition leader was monitored 24/7 in his cell. He was in a special “penalty cell” with much harsher conditions and sparse if not altogether nonexistent medical care.
It looked as if Putin wanted Navalny dead in prison, sooner or later. But if one presumes Navalny’s demise to be a de facto assassination the question arises — why now?
There is no shortage of explanations, based mostly on the upcoming Russian presidential election on March 17th. Or, rather, “presidential election.” In reality, this will be an act of reappointing Putin to his job, meticulously and demonstrably staged by his administration — the country’s real government. The outcome is not in doubt and those few hundred brave Russians who will dare to protest will be quickly carted off to Putin’s pliant courts, with fines or even jail sentences to follow.
Nothing that could have happened — and seemingly, did — happen to Navalny could seriously impact the outcome of the sham vote.
But there is an important international dimension to these so-called elections. In 2018, Western leaders tacitly decided to recognize Putin as president and keep on talking to him even though his election victory was the result of rampant fraud.
This time, with the Russian dictator under indictment by the International Criminal Court and his murderous assault on Ukraine entering a third year, the question of Putin’s legitimacy is on the agenda again.
There are voices in the West, especially in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States, demanding non-recognition of the Russian elections and, consequently, Putin as a legitimate head of state. This bothers the regime as it contemplates a surge of support for the Moscow-friendly populists in the upcoming European Parliament elections in June and the potential return of an isolationist, Ukraine-skeptic U.S. president to the White House.
Conventional political logic would call for a few symbolic gestures to the world to soften Russia’s image and hint at flexibility and openness after its election. Within this logical construct, Navalny would have been kept under extra protection and care.
Not so with Putin. He is obsessed with the idea of never showing weakness. In his eyes, that is anything that may suggest a compromise in dealing with his opponents; internal and, even more importantly, external.
Whether Alexey Navalny’s demise was accidental, which is very difficult to believe, or premeditated, the Kremlin’s brazenly crude and unapologetic reaction is demonstrative and deliberate.
In Putin’s world, it is also logical. He dares the West with his cruel stance. He is essentially saying: Yes, I am a dictator, I eliminate opponents and my elections are openly rigged. However, I am not Alexander Lukashenko. You shun him. But I control the war against Ukraine and possess nuclear weapons. You have no choice but to recognize me as president and eventually talk to me.
Putin remembers well Barack Obama’s “red line” in Syria in 2013. He did not forget Joe Biden respectfully treating him as a world statesman during their Geneva meeting in 2021. He read, as we did, about German Chancellor Olaf Scholz insisting on a new NATO secretary general not being too negative on Russia.
Putin is certain that the West will collectively wring its hands about Navalny for a few weeks but eventually sigh and accept him as Russia’s deeply revolting but ultimately legitimate leader. He hopes to score this victory to show his allies in Tehran, Pretoria, Brasilia and other capitals that dealing with him is safe and could be beneficial.
However, threats from Putin’s henchmen insisting Navalny’s mother and wife have a secret burial — a demand they staunchly refused — betray the Kremlin’s inner fear that things may suddenly go haywire as they frequently do in such regimes.
The U.S. and its allies should make note of it. Will they blink or rise to Putin’s challenge? There is little time left to decide.
Konstantin Eggert is a contributing Russian affairs analyst for DW, Germany’s international broadcaster.