The Islamic Republic of Iran is weak and vulnerable, far more than the regime would have us believe.
That’s the biggest takeaway from last week’s suspected Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran — and it delivers important messages to the ayatollah, his terror proxies, the Iranian people and Washington policymakers.
Haniyeh’s killing while under maximum protection by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps tells Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, that Israel has deeply infiltrated the ayatollah’s intelligence and security establishment. Furthermore, unlike in previous years, Israel is now prepared to use its power to strike the Islamic Republic at the highest levels within Iran.
In recent years, Israel has conducted several covert operations in Iran, the most significant being the 2020 elimination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the godfather of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear weapons program.
But the elimination of Haniyeh, both in terms of his political position and the operation’s complexity, which required planning in a very short time, indicates the extraordinary level of Israel’s infiltration inside the regime and its increased resolve to target its enemies — even if such strikes come with the risk of strong retaliation.
Israel’s capability and will to target Iran’s highest officials, along with its ability to target military and economic infrastructure through military, cyber and other covert means, lets the Islamic Republic know that its actions could increasingly lead to the killing of high-ranking officials inside Iran. It also shows that there is a strong Israeli advantage in any future wide-scale war.
Haniyeh’s assassination sent an even louder message, however, to the leaders of Tehran’s terror proxies — not only Hamas commander Yahya Sinwar in Gaza but Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other Iran-directed groups.
Israel has the ability to strike anyone, anywhere at any time — whether it’s Hezbollah’s chief of staff in southern Beirut or Hamas’s commander-in-chief in Tehran. Entanglement with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp ultimately proves fatal, whether a terrorist on the regime’s dime operates in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, the West Bank, Gaza — or even Iran.
If Israel stays on offense like this, it can effectively disrupt the operational coordination between the head and tentacles of the terror octopus.
But adversaries are not the only stakeholders taking note of Israel’s bold actions. The Iranian people — those who oppose the Islamic Republic — are also emboldened by a regime that increasingly appears ineffective and incompetent.
While the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp’s Basij forces can succeed in murdering Iranians in the street, the most elite levels of the guard’s security apparatus are no match for covert actions. Iranians, including Khamenei himself, are left to wonder just how many high-level officials in Tehran are willing to sell out an ideologically bankrupt regime for the right price.
The people of Iran and the state of Israel share a common interest in seeing the Islamic Republic collapse, and each side has capabilities and potential that can support the other in this effort. Israel may find more partners on the streets of Iran to further weaken the regime from within and ultimately bring it down.
The lesson learned that the ayatollah has no clothes — that the Islamic Republic is not 10 feet tall and bulletproof — should be a wake-up call in Washington too. Israel’s determination to defend itself and willingness to strike blows in the heart of Iran stands in sharp contrast to the United States — despite a larger economy and military — which runs away from confrontation with Tehran due to an irrational fear of escalation.
Tehran’s proxies in the region have consistently targeted American troops and interests. The regime is racing forward with its nuclear program, too. Not only has Washington failed to hold Tehran accountable, but its non-stop calls for de-escalation in the face of escalation provoke the regime to act more aggressively and with greater impunity.
Between Israel’s demonstrated ability to send a missile through Iranian air defense in April and its more recent capacity to take out a high-level asset in Tehran under the regime’s protection, Washington defense and intelligence planners should understand the Islamic Republic is far more fragile than its information operations would suggest.
The Haniyeh assassination is a window for the U.S. to seize. This is not a time for restraint or de-escalation. This is a moment to maximize pressure on Khamenei, increase support for the Iranian people and improve the odds that the Islamic Republic crumbles into the ash heap of history.
Saeed Ghasseminejad and Richard Goldberg are senior advisors at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.