Ukraine’s gains in Russia could lead to renewed US bipartisanship on Israel

It’s a sight not seen since the Second World War: Foreign troops, flag in hand, advancing on Russian sovereign soil.  

Ukraine’s bold incursion across the border is nothing short of historic. While President Volodymyr Zelensky is far from being able to declare victory, the events of this month may be remembered as a major turning point in the war. 

For nearly two years, growing Republican skepticism on Ukraine has led to divided American opinion on support to Kyiv. Democrats are, for the most part, united in their support for Kyiv’s campaign. Republicans, however, present a more complex view that can be divided into four schools of thought.

The first, opposing aid altogether, states that Ukraine is not a U.S. ally and that our interests lie in Kyiv achieving a truce with Moscow. The second is based on fears that military aid — particularly of the offensive type — could provoke Russian retaliation against NATO and ignite a new world war. The third centers on discontent with Ukrainian management of the war and American aid, asking for greater oversight. And the fourth supports Ukraine but accuses the Biden administration of needlessly prolonging the war by placing excessive limitations on the Ukrainians. 

Increasing daylight between lawmakers on both sides of the aisle had presented obstacles to President Biden’s agenda of unwavering support for Ukraine. However, these most recent developments could change many Republicans’ attitudes toward the war in Eastern Europe; a new case can be made for continued aid amid the prospect of Ukrainian victory. 

This possible rapprochement also provides opportunity for a new take on the Israel-Hamas war. So far, from the left, ever-growing criticism about the war’s toll on Gaza’s civilian population continues to pile up, threatening the 2024 campaign. A partnership with Republicans on Ukraine in exchange for unwavering support of Israel has not been feasible. Stuck between a rock and a hard place, Biden has so far had little to gain from leaning into a more center-right Israel agenda. 

That might soon change. A reinvigorated bipartisan discussion on aid, emboldened by Ukrainian achievements on the battlefield, provides for a strategic recalculation by the administration on its handling of the Middle East. Biden may be incentivized to embrace a tougher stance on Iran and its proxies, and thus provide more solid support for Israel’s goal of eradicating Hamas. 

A similar rapprochement between the parties’ policies was seen earlier in this administration. Biden’s return to the White House, from vice president to president, included an attempt to revive the Obama-era nuclear deal, which had been scrapped by his predecessor, former President Trump. This was a major foreign policy objective during Biden’s first year in office, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken spent many congressional hearings making the case for it.  

But since Russia launched its invasion in February of 2022, this goal has been nearly forgotten, not just because of Iran’s assistance to the Russian campaign, but also due to his need to coalesce bipartisan support for unprecedented levels of military assistance to Ukraine. A need for political consensus on one component of foreign policy led to an attempt at consensus on others. 

In contrast to Republicans’ nuanced and diverse positions on Ukraine, they are much more homogenous when it comes to Israel. This was seen with the passage of April’s military aid package for both countries. While the vote on Ukraine aid saw House Republicans split, aid for Israel garnered over 90 percent of conference support. Israel has, for the most part, been a uniting issue for Republicans, albeit widening the gap between Capitol Hill and the Biden administration even more. 

On Israel, the vast majority of Republicans use the points raised by the fourth Republican school of thought on Ukraine. GOP lawmakers, up to the ranks of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and House Foreign Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas), point their fingers at Biden. They accuse him of holding Israel back from decisive action, impeding deliveries of critical equipment and creating a weakened U.S. posture that diminishes American deterrence and leverage in negotiations.

While these talking points are eerily similar to those made on the Ukrainian front, this similarity is seldom acknowledged. A renewed common-ground approach by Republicans in Congress and the administration on Ukraine, backed by positive developments on the battlefield, could incentivize both sides to come closer on the Middle East as well. This will prove especially true after Election Day when the Biden administration, no longer hamstrung by the Harris campaign, will be freed of all political calculations. 

Elad Israeli is director of research and legislative affairs associate at the Endowment for Middle East Truth.