Russian strongman Vladimir Putin, if he continues to escalate his illegal war against Ukraine, will make a historic and cataclysmic mistake that will destabilize world security, damage the world economy and create grievous harm to people across Russia and Ukraine.
Dramatic economic sanctions will cause damage to the Russian economy, which will worsen if Putin orders a full-scale invasion that will result in extreme damage to the Russian and world economy beyond the sanctions. Putin would be forced to send hundreds of thousands of occupying troops, who would be targets for Ukrainian resistance forces, for a lengthy time, while Putin will be blamed across the globe and throughout Russia.
While Putin threatens to wage the most bloody and dangerous war in Europe since the 1940s, most of the key players opposing Putin’s war are rising to the occasion, which should inspire defenders of security and democracy.
President Biden has grown into the presidency and commander in chief as President Kennedy did, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and President Reagan did, when he saw the opportunity to protect our security and achieve nuclear arms control when Mikhail Gorbachev became leader of the then-Soviet Union.
President Emmanuel Macron of France, Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany have joined Biden in handling the crisis exceptionally well. The decision made by Germany to halt certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline was a critical moment of leadership. Biden’s skillful diplomacy with allied leaders has created an extraordinary unity of the NATO alliance.
In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky has proven to be a strong, courageous and skilled wartime leader. The mobilization and determination of Ukrainians against the foreign invader dramatizes the power of the idea of freedom, democracy and sovereignty.
A Russian launch of a bloody and savage attack across Ukraine would begin with allegations of illegality and potential war crimes, and ultimately force Putin to install hundreds of thousands of occupying Russian troops for a lengthy period of time. They would be surrounded by a determined, well-armed and patriotically passionate Ukrainian resistance that would do dramatic damage, and create significant casualties, against the occupying Russian troops.
A recent must-read column in Bloomberg, by Ret. Adm. James Stavridis, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, was titled “If Russia Takes Ukraine, Insurgency Could Be Putin’s Nightmare.” In his important column, Stavridis offers a detailed analysis and strategy to accomplish the mission of backing a Ukrainian resistance, that would impose severe cost to Russian occupiers.
Russian military morale would be harmed. Russian public opinion would become more negative about a self-destructive and illegal war. Opposition would grow against an unwanted war that significantly harms Russian workers and business as economic damage and hardship mounts, and from Russian military families as occupation casualties mount.
In an excellent January op-ed in the Washington Post, Ret. Gen. Wesley Clark, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, warned of immense security danger from Putin, who would pursue attacks against other European nations after Ukraine. Clark praised the unity of NATO and called for continued dramatic military aid to Ukraine to support its military AND a Ukrainian resistance if needed.
If Putin unleashes carnage throughout Ukraine, the world would witness sickening videos of massive bloodshed, massacred civilians, outraged Ukrainians fighting back with valor, and children and innocent people killed.
I was recently warned by Harvey Wasserman, a nuclear power expert, that Ukraine has 15 nuclear reactors, which could be endangered by a chaotic Russian bombing campaign, with potentially catastrophic consequences.
The Biden administration has written to the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights calling for an investigation of allegations that Russia has an internal “kill list” of Ukrainian public officials, journalists, religious and ethnic minorities, and LGBTQ persons targeted to be killed or sent to camps.
A Google search for “Russia Ukraine war crimes” reveals ongoing public, media and expert commentary about these matters.
One way or the other, with steadiness and resolve, President Biden, NATO and Ukraine can defeat Putin’s illegal war against Ukraine.
Budowsky was an aide to former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas) and former Rep. Bill Alexander (D-Ark.), who was chief deputy majority whip of the House of Representatives.