Judd Gregg: Trump and the chaos theory

The chaos theory of mathematics — to the extent I understand it, math not being my strongest subject — in essence holds that a small event can lead to many really big events.

The same idea applies to politics. It’s the seemingly little things that come back to hit you in the side of the head, hard. They create political chaos.

{mosads}When President Trump told Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that we had intelligence that could help both countries fight the Islamic State, he may have felt he was simply making a small offering.

It may have been part of an attempt to open the door to greater cooperation in the fight against Islamic fundamentalist terrorism. It was classified information that he thought could be used to gain some trust from the Russians and show the sincerity of his desire to cooperate.

Maybe he gave it little serious thought. It may have been a spur of the moment add-on to the discussion, since it appears his aides did not know he was going to disclose it. 

To the extent that he had thought about it all, he may have viewed it as a small item in a bigger move to get better participation from the Russians.

It was not. The implications of his disclosure have grown and have led in many directions, none of which is good for him or his administration. 

In short, the chaos theory has struck.

When the president sent his letter firing FBI Director James Comey, it included a sentence claiming Comey had stated “three times” that Trump was not a target of the Russia investigation. 

The sentence most likely came directly from the president. It was a classic example of personal hubris. Perhaps he saw it as a simple, but necessary, statement of fact — a passing line meant to make the point that he was not in the crosshairs.

It did not play out that way. Numerous avenues of conspiracy have been spun off it. The national media and many Democrats have made it one of the lynchpins of their case that there is much more here than meets the eye. 

The chaos theory strikes again.

Now there is thrown into the mix the possibility that Comey took extensive notes of his meetings with the president, including at a private dinner.

It is alleged — it seems by fairly strong sources — that there is a memo describing how the president asked Comey to give the former national security advisor, retired Gen. Michael Flynn, a break, and possibly drop the investigation of him. 

“He is a good guy,” is the reasoning ascribed to the president.

If this occurred, it is serious. But did the president even consider the implications of such a request at the time? Or was it a simple hope for a friend, stated at a quiet dinner?

It really doesn’t matter if it occurred. 

The number of mushrooming theories about this alleged exchange — all of them damaging for the administration — is growing by the day.

The chaos theory strikes a third time.

The thing about the chaos theory is that once the first events occur, it is difficult to stop the domino effect. The result, at least in politics, is, often extremely damaging.

Trump has created chaos in his government. He should blame no one else. If he does not significantly adjust, his presidency may well become uncontrollable.

He is a president who disdains the so-called establishment, and those who have experience in the byzantine, cannibalistic dance which is Washington and the national media. 

Yes, this attitude and approach played a large part in his winning the White House.

But the much-disparaged counselors who have been “around the Ellipse” understand that the small stuff — the off-handed comment, the unnoticed event that turns out to have “legs”— can be your undoing in Washington.

As much as Trump’s self-assurance tells him these folks are unnecessary, he may want to consider the results of his actions and statements up to this point.

The damage he has brought on himself is already considerable. He needs to draw in some of these folks, listen to them and get the support he needs to correct the course of his presidency.

The present trajectory is untenable.

Judd Gregg (R) is a former governor and three-term senator from New Hampshire who served as chairman and ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee, and as ranking member of the Senate Appropriations Foreign Operations subcommittee.