House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been delaying sending the two articles of impeachment against President Trump to the Senate in an effort to ensure a fair trial, therefore potentially pushing the formal proceedings well into the new year. “We would like to see a fair process and we will be ready for whatever it is,” Pelosi declared, adding that she is waiting to determine members of the prosecution team to make the case for House Democrats in the Senate trial until the parameters for the proceedings have been set.
The delay by Pelosi reveals that she is aware of the challenges that her party faces as the impeachment proceedings enter the next phase and is trying to figure out the best way to proceed to avoid calamity. But while some Democrats argue that delaying the trial will give Democrats leverage and hurt Trump, this is misguided and ignores several realities. Pelosi has played right into the hands of Trump and Republicans by advancing their narrative that Democrats are the party of obstruction and partisanship.
This political narrative is one that Trump and Republicans successfully used against Democrats in 2016 and will, if the stalling continues, be the downfall of Democrats in 2020. While impeachment has always carried risks for both parties, recent polling suggests that Pelosi and Democrats are now in a particularly perilous situation. Ultimately, as the proceedings have unfolded, national support for impeachment and removal of Trump has waned. Meanwhile, the approval ratings of the president have risen.
According to Gallup, his approval rating has inched up to 45 percent, an increase of six points since the House opened the impeachment inquiry in October. Americans are still divided over impeachment, but support has steadily dropped, and more than half of Americans oppose impeachment for the first time since the inquiry began. Back in October, support for impeachment climbed to 50 percent, according to Real Clear Politics. Independents now oppose it 40 percent to 32 percent, according to Reuters, marking the division that impeachment has sewn in politics, along with the risks of the Democrats drawing this partisan process out.
Democrats were angered over Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell rejecting their call for witnesses and his intention to conduct a partisan trial. “I am not impartial about this at all,” McConnell said, adding that he has been closely coordinating with the White House. His statement drew criticism from Democratic leaders. House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler asserted that the statement by McConnell must disqualify him from overseeing the Senate trial. “Mitch McConnell has a problem. Mitch McConnell has said he is going to work hand and glove with the White House. He has said he is not a fair juror. I do not understand how he can possibly take the oath that he is required to take,” Nadler exclaimed.
As Pelosi stalls, however, she also complicates circumstances for several members in her caucus who represent the competitive, and some even historically Republican, districts that flipped blue in 2018, where voters oppose impeachment. Nearly all of the House Democrats who represent swing districts voted in favor of impeachment, and many are now clearly looking to pivot from impeachment to discussing many issues that their constituents are concerned with, such as health care and the economy.
To her credit, Pelosi has been working hard over the last several weeks to give moderate Democrats legislative victories that they can tout in their districts with voters who are troubled that impeachment has supplanted the Democratic campaign promises made in 2018. In the efforts that ran parallel to impeachment, the House passed major legislation on trade, as well as a spending bill and a bill to lower the cost of prescription drugs.
While these legislative victories are certainly substantive, holding off on impeachment, especially if proceedings are pushed off well into the new year, will overshadow these great achievements, as well as any cohesive Democratic message. Heading into 2020, the party faces an uphill battle. The approval ratings of Trump are rising, his trade deal will become law, the economy is strong, and unemployment is low. With sights set on the election, the party must move to the core issues that they ran on in 2018 and that voters will have in mind when they hit the ballot box next year.
Douglas Schoen (@DouglasESchoen) is adviser to President Bill Clinton and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. He is the author of “Collapse: A World in Crisis and the Urgency of American Leadership.”