These days, attempting to explain the inexplicable seems a part of everyday life. Every news report, talk with our children, prayerful request for peace, and conversation between Americans across the nation is more likely than ever to end with a shake of the head and a question mark. It doesn’t matter if you call it genocide, war, unlawful invasion or special military operation; an accurate accounting of the loss of lives and treasure in Ukraine forever will reflect the very worst and most inhumane of acts.
Of the hundreds of inexplicable questions associated with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s action, at least one important question remains rarely discussed: “Why now?” Why would Putin attack Ukraine just as the Biden administration and NATO were strengthening ties and healing fractures?
Before I offer my hypothesis, let me be clear: Putin alone is responsible for the invasion of Ukraine. The debacle that was the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan did not encourage Putin to do this, nor did a less-than-perfect “perfect” phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The occasionally mentioned failure to respond to Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons in Syria after President Obama drew a “red line” did not do it, either. No, this was all Putin. The war crimes are his. The killing and devastation are his. So, too, is the embarrassing destruction of his military at the hands of an out matched but incredibly courageous, disciplined and professional Ukrainian fighting force.
Still, the things mentioned above — and many others — did inform Putin’s decision-making, which is most influenced by the nature of his national autocracy and narcissism. In Syria, where he aided Assad, Putin did see a lack of resolve on Obama’s part. When Zelensky refused to invent an investigation in return for an approved weapons package, Putin saw a green light shaped by what Trump would always view as a personal insult. When we left Afghanistan on President Biden’s order in a precipitous evacuation and without adequate coordination with NATO allies, Putin saw a fractured and weakened NATO and America.
Of course, there are other strategic shifts that also affected Putin’s calculus, but why did he wait until now?
In my view, Putin had planned to invade Ukraine for a while and did not wish to complicate what he believed would be an inevitable re-election of Trump by invading Ukraine during Trump’s first term. Instead, Putin always planned to wait for a second term because, right or wrong, he anticipated a more favorable American response from a second Trump administration.
Again, this is not about Trump; it is about how Putin viewed a potential second term. There are certainly examples of American toughness with Russia under Trump, but Putin also knew that America’s justifiable focus on Iran, North Korea and China made the idea of a warming relationship with Russia more welcome in America. Further, with Trump’s emphasis on “America First” policies that downplayed globalism and multilateral partnerships such as those associated with NATO, Putin likely believed the response to a Russian invasion under a second Trump administration would be quite nuanced, potentially fracturing NATO to the point of operational impudence or even dissolution.
The key here, though, is that Putin’s narcissism and the autocracy of his own creation prevented him from properly assessing the new strategic landscape that followed Biden’s election. He failed to recognize the potential consequence of new American leadership in pulling NATO — and arguably, most of the remaining developed world — into a consolidated and powerful resistance against the brutality resident in Putin’s own ignorance.
As a result, Putin kept his demented plan on track and elected to move forward without the foggiest idea that NATO’s defensive foundation, coupled with the outrage of much of the world, would crush the lifeblood from his economy; reveal his military, at least for the moment, as an incompetent pariah; and make his nation an isolated island of imperialistic autocracy surrounded by freedom-loving and newly awakened nations.
So, why now? Quite simply, it was the plan all along and Putin’s autocrats knew his narcissism would never permit a change. So, they simply lied to him about the potential outcome.
The decision to invade Ukraine, among the worst in modern history, provides a lesson not just for Putin but for the rest of the world as well. Autocratic, narcissist leaders inevitably will lead nations to their own slow demise. I hope we resolve never to join that club in America.
Daniel P. Woodward is a retired Air Force brigadier general and longtime fellow of the American College of National Security Leaders, a nonpartisan community of national security professionals devoted to informing, influencing and inspiring debate in America. The opinions expressed here are his alone.