Less than three years ago, ISIS was the most powerful jihadist organization in the world, having eclipsed Al Qaeda in all significant metrics, such as numbers recruited and military capability. The Islamic State controlled vast areas in more than three nations, with fully functional affiliates in 15 more. It was making $2 million a day from illicit oil sales, kidnapping and local taxation, had six million humans on its territory, and had reestablished the physical theocratic Caliphate, the first ever group to do so since the last Caliphate was dissolved in 1924 by Turkish premier Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.
Today, none of the above is true, with the physical caliphate functionally destroyed. This is a direct result of the new defeat ISIS strategy put in place by the Trump administration. Crucially, under President Trump and Defense Secretary James Mattis, America has moved from a strategy of “attrition” to a strategy of “annihilation.” This has led to unprecedented events such as the surrender of more than 1,000 ISIS jihadis in one day.
{mosads}In addition to a new strategy, the Trump administration has, most importantly, devolved military decision-making to the appropriate levels. Grand strategy and policy has remained at the National Security Council and the Department of Defense, with theater and operational decisions left to the relevant commanders in the field and the respective geographic and combatant commands. This has redressed an imbalance which previously saw Washington making even tactical decisions and removing decision-making authorities from those best able to make sub-strategic military decisions.
Additionally, the Trump White House has retaken the regional initiative with our allies and partners, the most important event being the president’s Riyadh speech which openly called for our Arab and Muslim partners to directly tackle the extremists in their countries. Simply put, the Trump administration has taken what the Obama White House called a “generational threat” and made it strategically irrelevant in the space of just a few months. But the war is not over.
The physical Caliphate is no more, but “Rump ISIS” still functions in numerous nations and still inspires attacks in Europe and the United States. In order to suppress the global jihadist threat, the Trump administration needs to incorporate the following measures into a broader strategy that goes beyond just crushing the Islamic State. The political integrity of Iraq is vital in preventing a reemergence of ISIS or similar actors in the future. At the same time, our battlefield victories against Sunni extremists such as ISIS or Al Qaeda, must not occur in ways that strengthen Iran and the Iranian regime’s Shia version of jihadi extremism.
Subsequently, all our regional diplomatic efforts must be aimed at having our Sunni Muslim partners become the stabilizing force in Iraq (and the Sinai). President Trump is not a neoconservative interventionist. He believes that America has a unique leadership role to play in the world but not as an invader and occupier. Instead, we will stand by our Muslim and Arab friends and help them to fight their own fights. Even in warfare, the “teach a man to fish” adage holds true.
America is peerless in the application of military force. No one comes close. Nevertheless, the ultimate victory in this type of irregular war does not come in the counting of enemy body bags. Killing terrorists is not a good metric, given the size of the jihadist recruiting pool, and the enemy’s belief that death in jihad leads to instant salvation means that killing bushels of “bad guys” is hardly a theological deterrent. Thus, we will only have won when young men and women no longer wish to become jihadists and when the black flag of jihad is as globally reviled as the Nazi swastika is today.
This will take a much larger counter-propaganda effort than we currently conduct. The effort should be executed in the overt and covert domain and focus on how best we can help credible voices in countries such as Jordan and Egypt delegitimize the message of the extremists. Most importantly, this initiative will have to be driven out of the White House. And we have done this successfully before, one of the best model’s being the Cold War’s interagency Active Measure Working Group, which targeted and delegitimized anti-American propaganda from the Soviet Union.
The Trump administration has unleashed America’s armed forces and empowered our Arab partners in the Middle East, and so taken a putatively “generational threat” and militarily crushed it in under a year. Now we must reinforce our borders and reform our immigration system to protect us from the types of attacks that have plagued Europe in recent years. At the same time, with the Muslim nations most on the frontline of this war, we must hollow out and nullify the jihadi ideology and show it for what it is: a decrepit death cult. Final victory will then be ours.
Sebastian Gorka Ph.D. is a national security strategist for Fox News and a former deputy assistant and strategist to President Trump. This piece is a summary of his congressional testimony to the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. You can follow him @SebGorka.