Russia recently reaffirmed its nuclear doctrine by issuing a 345-word statement on its Foreign Ministry website. Western analysts seized on the phrase “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought,” interpreting this as a shift from Vladimir Putin’s threats of nuclear warfare in recent months and a sign that the Kremlin may be ratcheting things down as Russia struggles to repel Ukraine’s counter-offensive.
But this analysis is backwards. Moscow’s statement, while measured and free of bombast, is actually a frightening warning to the United States and NATO to stay out of Ukraine. It warns that Russia will take preemptive, “catastrophic” action to stave off what Moscow likely believes is an impending deployment of U.S. and allied troops into the theater. The message’s very succinctness and directness is cause for alarm.
The statement reiterates Russia’s longstanding doctrine that it will “resort to nuclear weapons” in response to, among other things, “an aggression with the use of conventional weapons when the existence of the state is in jeopardy.” Russia believes the U.S. government seeks regime change and Putin’s removal from power. This is buttressed by statements by U.S. officials, including President Biden, who said, “This man cannot remain in power.”
Russia knows the U.S. has an overwhelming advantage in conventional warfare capabilities; hence, its doctrine calls for preemptive action to impede the potential flow of U.S. and NATO forces into a theater of war. Several kinds of catastrophic blows are available, including tactical nuclear weapons, or non-nuclear actions such as cyber strikes to cripple vital U.S. or European infrastructure.
The statement noted that the “current complicated and turbulent situation” is “caused by irresponsible and impudent actions aimed at undermining our [Russia’s] national security” and “vital interests.” This is intended to build a case that Russia would be acting in self-defense, clearing a doctrinal requirement for a nuclear strike.
Russia’s statement must be read in the context of what looks eerily like preparations for war. Both Russia and the United States are beefing up their space order of battle by launching military and intelligence satellites. From an intelligence standpoint, this is a classic “indication and warning” of an impending kinetic conflict in modern warfare, which relies on spacecraft for many aspects of warfighting.
Last week, the privately owned SpaceX launched two reconnaissance satellites from Florida, each tasked to perform classified Space Force missions. The Space Force is the newest branch of the U.S. military, established in response to the growing space warfare threat from Russia and China, both of which plan to “deafen to blind” U.S. forces in a potential conflict by attacking our satellites.
Russia has launched multiple military satellites from several launch facilities, using various rockets. On Oct. 10, a Soyuz rocket carried into space a Kosmos 2559 satellite, part of the Glonass navigation constellation, Russia’s version of the GPS, from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome. Five days later, an Angara-1.2 rocket operated by the Russian Space Force launched a top secret satellite Kosmos-2560. On Oct. 21, a Soyuz-2-1V rocket lifted off two classified payloads Kosmos-2561 and -2562. The next day three Gonets-M communications satellites and an experimental new-generation space bird Skif-D were launched from Vostochny.
As a former Defense Intelligence Agency intelligence officer who focused on Russia’s space warfare doctrine and spacecraft technologies, it is my assessment that Russia is augmenting its wartime mission capabilities. There are intelligence indicators suggesting that bomb shelters are being stood up in Moscow and elsewhere in Russia, emergency evacuation drills are being conducted, and police are being trained in wartime protocols.
Whether Russia’s assessment that the U.S. is about to get involved in the Russia-Ukraine war is accurate or not is irrelevant. Although there are signposts suggesting that the U.S. European Command is on alert for a potential Russia-related mission, what matters most is whether Russia thinks we will take kinetic action. Because if it does, it won’t wait for the final proof. Russia did not hesitate to shoot down a Korean airliner, KAL007 in 1983, or a Malaysian airliner, MH-17 in 2014, both civilian aircraft. The events are features of the Russian government’s longstanding paranoia that the West is plotting its demise.
What Putin is planning could come soon. The Russians know that we are all-hands-on-deck with the outcome of the midterm elections. If there is an opportune time for Russia to take what it believes is defensive action, this fits the bill.
Rebekah Koffler is the president of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting, a former Defense Intelligence Agency intelligence officer, and the author of “Putin’s Playbook: Russia’s Secret Plan to Defeat America.” She also wrote the foreword for “Zelensky: The Unlikely Ukrainian Hero Who Defied Putin and United the World.” Follow her on Twitter @rebekah0132.