South Korea’s Yoon could be the weakest link in the next Korean War

President Joe Biden hosted Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol for a summit last week. The Camp David meeting featured discussions of mutual security and economic interests.

The meeting came as North Korea was escalating tensions in the region. Recently, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un launched a spy satellite and test-fired multiple intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach Washington, D.C., in less than 30 minutes. He has been threatening more of the same while boasting about his nuclear capabilities.

Biden, Kishida and Yoon must cooperate to deter Kim from his goals to destabilize the region and threaten the world with nuclear weapons. If the three allies cannot deter him, he will continue to work with and be emboldened by China and Russia.

Kishida will be the right ally to help Biden counter Kim, but Yoon is likely to be a liability for Biden.

If a war is to ultimately happen, the most decisive factor in modern warfare has long been the resolve of the leader. In our modern times, numerically and militarily inferior forces have repeatedly shown their ability to fight and win, from Ho Chi Minh to Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, who famously refused evacuation in the dark, early days of the Ukraine War.

Japan’s Kishida plans to drastically increase Japan’s defense spending by 2 percent of GDP by 2027. Biden was also no doubt relieved when Yoon, a pro-American candidate, was elected president of South Korea last year. Yoon also paid an official visit to Camp Humphreys, the headquarters of the 28,500 U.S. troops, about 43 miles south of Seoul. No other Korean president-elect had ever discussed security matters with foreign generals before his or her inauguration.

In addition, Yoon has openly stated, “The U.S. is a staunch ally of South Korea” and removed any possible obstacle to U.S. soldiers conducting battle drills in South Korea. He has also helped the U.S. step up surveillance over North Korea.

In exchange, Yoon wants Biden’s military might to be ready to fight against Kim’s challenges on his behalf.

Yet for the time being, Yoon has impeded his own country’s military preparedness. To win over younger voters during the presidential campaign, Yoon promised to triple private soldiers’ salaries. This has proven disastrous for the military, which now faces great difficulties in recruiting junior officers. These officers’ pay rates are now lower than that of private soldiers, and service obligations are much longer.

Today junior officers are the backbone of the military since they constitute a critical resource or means for executing military strategy. Without their professional, tactical and leadership skills, any war operation would be in jeopardy.

Yoon, a draft dodger himself, seems indifferent to the rapidly shrinking size of South Korea’s military force. The army maintains 490,000 soldiers, a spectacular 25 percent drop from its heyday. North Korea has 1.28 million soldiers.

Given that Seoul is technically still at war with Pyongyang due to a ceasefire agreement in 1953, Yoon needs to make up for the manpower shortage. Currently, he has no such plan.

Yoon may think American soldiers could fill that manpower gap, but he has made a poor case for it with his own leadership. In December, five North Korean drones crossed the heavily armed border into South Korean airspace for seven hours. One even flew near the Korean White House. Yoon dropped the ball and did not make any public appearances to address his fearful nation about this potential sign of an imminent invasion. He also failed to convene the National Security Council, which could have aided his country in this time of turmoil.

Three months ago, Pyongyang launched a spy satellite into space, which some experts believe could have been a nuclear missile. Shockingly, Yoon was nowhere to be found.

In contrast, Japan’s leadership responded ably. Kishida took charge and immediately called his security team to discuss the readiness of the Self-Defense Forces, even though the then-unidentified projectile was not flying over Japan.

Last July, a U.S. strategic nuclear ballistic missile submarine arrived in South Korea as a show of force against increasing military threats from North Korea. Yoon’s visit to this submarine was intended to convey solidarity with Biden. Instead, it frustrated many Koreans because it looked like a personal tour for Yoon and his wife.

Koreans questioned why they could not also receive such tours since Yoon and his wife were allegedly aboard the stealth ship for pleasure rather than official business. Koreans also wondered how the submarine could be deemed “stealthy” if Yoon let the North know exactly when and where it was docked.

Great leaders do not simply appear; they require the support of an entire nation. They inspire their citizens to fight enemies to the death. Therefore, it is crucial that they avoid the worst of partisan politics and build a united front.

Yet Yoon has ignored calls for bipartisanship, refusing to work with the opposition-party majority in Congress. He has also entertained far-right ideologies, selecting his secretary of Unification and the chairman of the Korean Communications Commission from among right-wing extremists.

In short, Yoon devotes no time or effort to bridging political divides or learning diplomacy.

If war breaks out tomorrow in the Korean peninsula, Biden will need Yoon’s assistance. However, even though he claims that he is willing to fight, Yoon would have trouble mobilizing his nation due to his far-right politics and historically low approval ratings, which are around 23 percent.

In contrast to Yoon’s failing leadership style, Japan’s Kishida has indicated that he would quickly come to South Korea’s aid with the full force of his military.

Hopefully, Biden understands that he must encourage Kishida to help Yoon navigate evolving foreign policy challenges. If not, Yoon, who acts like he has outsourced his national defense to the U.S., will remain a liability for Biden in coming years.

Seung-Whan Choi teaches Korean politics and International Relations at the University of Illinois at Chicago. A retired Army officer, he is also a distinguished author of four books and 53 journal articles.