Biden is sending Israel mixed messages

The Biden Administration is increasingly sending mixed messages to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his generals concerning the presence of the U.S. forces in the region, including the armada now positioned off the coast in the eastern Mediterranean.

Recent statements from President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin appear to be drifting away from the original messaging of the buildup of U.S. forces in the region — namely, to “enhance our military force posture in the region to strengthen our deterrence,” and protect Israel from attacks by Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed proxies in the region as they battle Hamas militants in Gaza. 

On October 23, Blinken told  reporters that “The United States is poised to get involved in the Israel-Hamas war, should the conflict escalate into regional forces intentionally targeting American personnel.”

That seems clear enough.

Then, during the UN Security Council meeting in New York City on October 24, Blinken told the assembled representatives, “The United States does not seek conflict with Iran. We do not want this war to widen. But if Iran or its proxies attack U.S. personnel anywhere, make no mistake. We will defend our people. We will defend our security swiftly and decisively.” 

Again, that seems clear. But in the time since, U.S. forces have been attacked repeatedly. Washington’s response thus far has been limited.

Biden is talking tough and saying the right things, including, “My warning to the ayatollah is: if they continue to move against those troops, we will respond, and he should be prepared.” He has yet to back that up with action. 

Shia militias have repeatedly struck U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria with drones, rockets, and missiles. Houthi rebels operating in Yemen have launched missiles towards Israel that were intercepted by the USS Carney over the Red Sea and  by Israeli fighter jets and their new Arrow missile defense system over the Red Sea port of Eilat. 

Since Hamas began its attacks on Oct. 7, 24 American service members in the Middle East have been wounded, and one U.S. contractor has died from cardiac arrest. Now, even more are exposed.

The Pentagon has deployed two carrier strike groups to the eastern Mediterranean — the USS Gerald R. Ford and the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower — along with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit made up of the USS Bataan, USS Mesa Verde and USS Carter Hall, as a military show of force and as a deterrent.

The Blue Ridge-class command and control ship USS Mount Whitney was also dispatched, along with other assets that included additional F-15E Strike Eagle, F-16s and A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft. The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense integrated missile defense system was also deployed to Israel to provide an additional layer of air defense against short, medium and intermediate-range ballistic missiles.

Biden’s assembled armada is massive. However, his playbook remains a defensive one in a war where all the opposing players are directly or indirectly on the offense.

On Oct. 26, Austin essentially confirmed this defense-oriented game plan after the U.S. conducted retaliatory strikes against militant groups backed by the IRGC. Instead of underscoring the strike’s messaging, he essentially apologized for it saying, “The United States does not seek conflict and has no intention nor desire to engage in further hostilities.”

Notably, Austin’s statement included no battle damage assessment. Meanwhile, attacks on U.S. bases continue unabated. The total number of attacks on U.S. forces by Iran-backed groups have now reached 28.

The Biden Administration needs to take a page from Israel. “Active defense” works best when accompanied by force. “Defend” does not deter, and shooting down missiles does not prevent the firing of additional rounds. Iran’s proxies most certainly will fire more missiles, at a time and place of their choosing, later on.

As an example, when Israeli forces were mustering in assembly areas, conducting pre-combat checks, and rehearsals in preparation for their ground assault into Gaza, Hezbollah threatened to open a second front in the north. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian  then warned that that “an Israeli ground offensive in Gaza would force Iran to intervene.”

Netanyahu issued a stern warning in response to Iran and Hezbollah, “Don’t test us in the North. Don’t make the same mistake you already made once. Because today, the price you will pay will be much heavier.” 

Israel has since launched hundreds of airstrikes into Gaza, targeting Hamas leadership, defensive positions, rocket launchers and ammunition storage depots. It has now begun raids and combined arms ground assaults into the Gaza strip. For now, at least, Iran’s response has been muted, save for a war of words.

Tehran knows that Netanyahu will follow through on his warning, as Iran has been on the receiving end of Israeli airstrikes in the past. As for Biden’s show of force, however, not so much. This is why Shia militias continue to strike U.S. bases, despite countless warnings from the Biden administration.

Strength and decisive action matter.

The permissive environment established by the Biden Administration to placate Iran has only exacerbated the situation. Iran lulled the U.S. and Israel into a false sense of security. This was put on full display by Biden’s National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan in his Foreign Affairs magazine essay published shortly before the Hamas attack, in which he stated, “Although the Middle East remains beset with perennial challenges, the region is quieter than it has been for decades.”

That sentence did not age well. Nor will the current, limited U.S. responses to ongoing Iranian provocations.

Thus far, not one airstrike has been conducted by the U.S. military to deter any attacks on Israel. U.S. assets in the region have shot down missiles intended to strike Israel, but they have not neutralized the weapons systems that launched those missiles. Meanwhile, Israel has repeatedly struck targets in Syria and Lebanon, striking airfields to impede weapons shipments from Iran and Hezbollah militants firing rockets and anti-tank missiles towards Israel. 

The U.S needs to channel Israel and begin actively deterring Iran. The wrath of the assembled U.S. military force present in the region must be brought to bear — and that cannot be limited to just the Iranian-backed proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Forces of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps must be included on the target list. That message needs to resonate in Tehran.

The Biden administration needs to adhere to four guiding principles. Provide security to American citizens in the region; provide force protection to our service members manning remote bases; honor our commitment to our principal ally in the Middle East, Israel; and provide decisive action to deter and remove any threat.

It is all connected — there can be only one message.

Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army Colonel and 30-year military intelligence officer, led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth is an economist, entrepreneur, and former board member of the World Trade Center, St. Louis.