Will there be war? Iran’s Middle East war against the US is already here

Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security advisor, said Tuesday in Davos that the U.S. is not seeking to widen the conflict raging in the Middle East. But But Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, didn’t get the memo.

He is not sitting idly by — at his direction, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to widen its asymmetric war against U.S. interests.

Hamas’s attack against Israel on Oct. 7 was the first blow. Then came Hezbollah’s displacement of 70,000 Israelis with its attacks on northern Israel. Then came tens of dozens of IRGC-sponsored militia strikes on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthi attacks against commercial and military shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

On Monday, Iran expanded its operations to the Kurdish region of northern Iraq. The IRGC claimed responsibility for missile strikes against what they alleged was an Israeli Mossad base. 

Tehran said the IRGC “destroyed one of the main espionage headquarters of Israel in Erbil” in response to what they said were Israeli attacks that “killed IRGC commanders and members of the Iranian resistance front.”

The Iranians are likely referring to the late December strikes by Israel that killed General Seyed Razi Mousavi, an IRGC adviser in Damascus, and killed another 11 IRGC officials at the Damascus International Airport. 

Monday’s attack also killed prominent Kurdish businessman Peshraw Dizayee and four of his family members at their home. He was the owner of the Falcon Group — responsible for major projects such as the Empire World, and according to Visegrád 24, “facilitated trade with Israel.”

While the strikes did not damage the U.S. consulate in Erbil as first reported, it is clear, as we noted in an interview for the Daily Mail, that Khamenei is calling the Biden administration’s bluff. 

State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller’s response was predictable and self-defeating. “We strongly condemn Iran’s attacks in Erbil and offer condolences to the families of the victims,” Miller said. “We oppose Iran’s reckless missile strikes and support the government of Iraq and the Kurdistan regional government’s efforts to meet the aspirations of the Iraqi people.”

But thoughts and prayers are not going to stop the IRGC from waging its current war against the U.S. Also left unsaid by Miller was that Iran rejected the private message Biden delivered last week after he authorized the Joint U.S.-UK strike against Houthi targets in Yemen. It is business as usual and could potentially widen the war in the Middle East. 

Notably, the Biden Administration continues to avoid striking IRGC targets. Israel is showing no such restraint. If the building struck in Erbil was a Mossad facility, it was likely intended to provoke a response from Israel — possibly to strike Iran directly, forcing the U.S. to intervene and dissuade its ally. 

The Biden administration does not want a direct confrontation with Iran, but that appears to be the calculated direction Khamenei is taking things. For all the U.S. military might put on display throughout the Middle East, Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden right now, Iran and its proxies have not been deterred. 

Khamenei continues to up the ante — and the White House and Biden’s national security team keep ignoring it.

As of Jan. 8, there had been a total of 128 attacks on U.S. military bases and naval ships in the region since last Oct. 17. Notably, 13 of those Iranian-backed attacks occurred after Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was hospitalized for complications associated with surgery for prostate  cancer. 

Biden finds himself increasingly mired in three different regional conflicts: Ukraine, the Middle East and then China’s machinations against Taiwan. This is a geostrategic reality that his National Security Strategy neither anticipated nor was designed to handle. Like Iran, China and North Korea are paying attention and looking for openings.

Ukraine is fast approaching its third year of war. The war in Gaza recently surpassed its 100 day. Taiwan just elected Lai Ching-te to be its next president, much to the dismay of China. Biden’s self-defeating response? “We do not support [Taiwanese] independence,” as if he were attempting to appease Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Biden’s response to Iran’s provocations could well determine all three of these national security challenges. The Middle East has reached a boiling point that America cannot ignore. 

Now, domestic politics are coming into play. The Iowa caucuses kicked off the 2024 presidential election cycle. The White House appears to be on the path of least resistance in all three conflicts. In doing so, Washington risks appearing as willing to throw its partners — and service members deployed in the Middle East and East Africa, under the bus to avoid any direct military intervention for the next 10 months.

Zelensky and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are in the fight for their countries’ very survival, not for some election cycle. Both are prepared to go it alone without the U.S. Netanyahu told Biden as much concerning the Houthi threat. Thus, without U.S. support, Ukraine and Israel could drag the U.S. into the very wars Biden is trying to avoid. 

That is the Biden dilemma: Pay the political cost of intervening now, or pay the price later in American lives. Neither Russia nor Iran has any intention of backing down. Kicking the can down the road only makes the problem worse, and Iran is not about to let him do it at any rate. On Wednesday, the IRGC struck targets inside Pakistan, further expanding Iran’s aggressive Middle East campaign. 

Khamenei is on the offensive on multiple fronts across the Middle East. Yet the Biden administration seemingly remains in denial. It is time to wake up and face reality. The U.S. is in an asymmetrical war with Iran. 

Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.