Joe Biden may be forcing Israel to finish off Hamas in Tehran instead of Rafah

Winning is not a difficult concept, except when it comes to President Joe Biden and his national security team. 

Led astray by national security advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Biden is thinking short-sightedly in terms of strategic ties. In doing so, he is setting up the U.S. and its allies for completely avoidable losses.

In Ukraine, his has been a dangerously half-hearted approach to countering our country’s enemies. Instead of equipping Ukraine to win, the Biden administration has piecemealed weapons and munitions, transforming a once-winnable conflict into a “forever war.”

Now, Biden is doing it again in the Middle East. During a telephone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last Thursday, the president essentially demanded that the Israel Defense Forces capitulate to Hamas in the wake of the deaths of seven aid workers in Gaza who were killed in an Israeli airstrike. 

On Saturday night, Israel abruptly withdrew its ground forces from Southern Gaza. The White House seemingly got what it wanted.

Or did it?

Former President Barack Obama once said of Biden, “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f— things up.” And Biden, more likely than not, just seriously messed things up in the Middle East. Indeed, the second- and third-order effects of Biden’s decisions have escalated conflicts throughout Africa, the Middle East and Europe.

Israel views this conflict as existential and is therefore unlikely to back down. Thus Biden, in pressuring Israel to draw back from Hamas, may prod it into taking the fight directly to the source: Iran. Israel’s war cabinet is probably already recalibrating with this withdrawal. Hamas was the wolf closest to the gates of Jerusalem, but the source of the current chaos has always been Iran, and by extension its proxy, Hezbollah.  

We witnessed Jerusalem’s willingness to strike against Iran on April 1, when Israel bombed Tehran’s diplomatic compound in Damascus, Syria. Seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders were killed, including Brig. General Mohammad Reza Zahedi.

Initially, the Israeli strike was viewed as Netanyahu putting Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Hezbollah head Hassan Nasrallah on notice. Israel had had enough. But it may be reinterpreted in the aftermath of Biden’s pressure on Israel and the withdrawal from southern Gaza. It may instead be the first shot in a dangerous regional war between Tehran and Jerusalem.

As it was, Iran had already declared its intention to strike back at Israel. Mohammad Jamshidi, Khamenei’s deputy chief of staff, demanded that Washington “step aside so that you don’t get hit.” 

Tehran may now perceive Netanyahu as politically vulnerable due to Biden’s dressing down. Khamenei might be tempted to launch a reprisal strike or strikes on Israel directly. If he does, he will have badly miscalculated.

Before this, Israel had been likely content to eliminate Hamas as a threat and militarily check Hezbollah as needed in Lebanon. But thanks to Biden’s meddling last Thursday, Israel likely now sees only one way out, and it involves strategically eliminating Iran and Hezbollah as significant military threats. If it can’t beat Hamas in Rafah, Israel will cut its roots in Iran and Lebanon, starving the terrorist organization and its affiliates in Gaza, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

If Iran directly hits Israel, Netanyahu and his war cabinet know they will have no other choice than to respond in kind. Perhaps that is why the Israelis withdrew from southern Gaza, to better position their forces ahead of war with Iran.

And is a nuclear wildcard in play. Depending on where Iran’s nuclear program stands, and if Iranian nuclear breakout has indeed been achieved, any direct confrontation between Tehran and Jerusalem could dramatically escalate even further. 

Biden’s political problems in Michigan had better be worth all the chaos his intervention has caused. Whether you politically support Biden or not, he has prioritized electoral calculus over national security. Ukraine and others now have reason to fear what else Biden might do based on political considerations.

Biden has publicly criticized Israel. So too his chief political ally in Congress, Senator Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). Ditto Democratic members on Capitol Hill.

But where is Biden’s public outrage over Hamas, which continues to hold six American hostages? Biden has made no demands of its leaders, even as they deliberately fight from behind Palestinian civilians and hijack international humanitarian aid. 

Where are Biden’s public lines in the sand for Iran? Khamenei and his Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are behind Hamas and will be again if Biden allows Hamas to survive.

There are late reports, as yet unconfirmed, that Iran is offering to refrain from a reprisal strike against Israel if Jerusalem enters into a ceasefire. If true, the only reason would be that Khamenei wants Hamas to survive to fight Israel another day. 

Israel must be given the latitude it needs to destroy Hamas in Rafah. Otherwise, Jerusalem may be forced to finish the job in Tehran. 

Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014.