Mutual hatred for America will only bring China, Russia and Iran closer

The stories of China, Russia and Iran’s confrontations with the United States and its allies began independently. Each has roots and causes quite separate from the others. 

And yet, the logic that governs human conflict has been pushing these three powers into greater strategic collaboration. It is likely to develop further, and may eventually take the form of a fully aligned geopolitical camp whose members operate against their common adversaries in concert.

The outcomes that the regimes in Beijing, Moscow and Tehran seek to bring about through their strategies are not the same. But this would not be the first time when powers with very different geostrategies aligned with one another.

Nazi Germany gave weapons to the Ethiopians during the Italo-Ethiopian War of 1935-1936, because Fascist Italy opposed the German plans to annex Austria. Nazi Germany also maintained close military and economic cooperation with China, before finally choosing to align with Japan instead during the Sino-Japanese War.

 In the end, the factor that defined the strategic choices of Berlin, Tokyo and Rome resulting in the formation of the Axis was having the same main adversaries in the Western democracies.

Iran wants to become the hegemon of the Middle East. This goal is in the ideological DNA of the current ruling regime in Tehran. Its support of Shi’a rebel movements,  implacable enmity of Israel and the creation of states within states in Lebanon and Iraq all are means to this end. The most powerful force that stands in the way of this imperialist project is the U.S.

Russia wants to replace the global leadership of the U.S. and its allies with a world of a few great powers that dominate their neighbors and compete or cooperate with the rest of the world. It intends to be among these great powers and therefore seeks to restore its lost empire in a new form. 

Since, unlike the Soviet Union, modern Russia has no resources to attempt to dominate the world by itself, it wants it to be leaderless. Those in the U.S. who dream about aligning with Russia against China fail to understand that America’s world leadership is completely incompatible with the purposes of the current regime in Moscow and no amount of talk about the Chinese threat can change this reality.

China currently is the only power capable of an attempt to replace America as the global leader. This is exactly what the regime in Beijing has set out to do. The resulting Sino-American struggle is on and will continue for the foreseeable future.

In every one of these three very different strategies the main obstacle, the chief adversary to overcome, is America. But there is also another refrain common to Beijing, Moscow and Tehran, in addition to their geopolitical struggle with the U.S.

These three regimes do not wish to live in a world where democracy, with all its values, is the primary, influential and legitimate form of political thought and practice. They do not want to remain in the role of political rogues. Such status is tiresome and potentially very dangerous for them. They want their despotism to be the norm rather than a deviation from modern human civilization. 

In this sense, too, the global leadership of America — by far the most powerful and influential proponent of democracy — is a problem that needs to be eliminated from the perspective of Beijing, Moscow and Tehran.

Russia and Iran found their way to serious strategic cooperation in 2015, in the joint effort to save the Assad regime in Syria. Since then, they have operated together in that country on numerous occasions. 

As the Russo-Ukrainian War continues, Iran is making an important impact on European geopolitics for the first time in modern history by supplying Russia with weapons. Even more arms to fight Ukraine are delivered to Russia by North Korea. It is hardly conceivable that Pyongyang would commit to such a consequential step if China were against it. Moreover, China’s support of Russia in its war against Ukraine has been growing.

There is still a lot of room for further closer alignment between China, Russia and Iran. So far, the new Axis has not been fully formed. But the inexorable logic of struggle applies great pressure in favor of strategic collaboration between these three powers.

They have the same main adversary — America. Their chances of prevailing against it will be better if they work together, still more if they coordinate their actions forcing the U.S. to split its limited resources between different geographic theaters. Moreover, the serious success of any one of these three powers would weaken America, its prestige and its alliances, thus helping the other two.

The world is a dynamic place right now. Many processes are gathering pace. The growing alignment of China, Russia and Iran is among the most consequential. Everyone who stands against the ambitions of any of these three states and their ruling regimes needs to pay close attention.

David Batashvili is a research fellow at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (Rondeli Foundation) in Tbilisi, Georgia. Previously, he was an analyst at the Georgian National Security Council.