This is no time for the West to get complacent about Ukraine

In April, many were quick to celebrate the passage of the $95 billion spending package that will, among other things, supply Ukrainians with the equipment they need to defend themselves from Russia’s ongoing war of aggression.

Members of the House and Senate stressed the importance of sending this crucial aid. In Ukraine’s case, members of Congress waved Ukrainian flags when the package passed. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government thanked its American counterparts for this new assistance. The aid package will give Ukrainians the tools to defend their positions. It will also help stymy Russian advances in southern and eastern Ukraine.

“The just-passed National Security Supplemental is vital for Ukraine’s success,” stated Scott Cullinane, Director of Government Relations at Razom for Ukraine. “This new American aid, along with what Europe is doing, will bolster Ukraine.”

But while this aid is essential to Ukraine’s success, it will not be enough to end the war. The West must manage its expectations with the war as Ukrainians receive this new aid.

“Individuals in the West are celebrating that new aid for Ukraine was passed,” a spokesperson from the Ukrainian government said under anonymity. “We are very grateful for the aid. But the situation on the front is still very serious. It is important to emphasize this.”

Russia took advantage of the seven-month period during which aid for Ukraine stalled in Congress. For half a year, the Russians fortified their positions in southern and eastern Ukraine. They dug anti-tank ditches and built mazes of trenches that span hundreds of miles. The Russians heavily mined the occupied regions to slow down Ukrainian advancements. This made matters difficult as Ukrainian forces need to de-mine these areas and account for the terrain so that their military equipment and troops can pass through undamaged and unscathed.

In addition, Ukrainian forces faced ammunition shortages while Russians produced equipment quickly. As Ukraine waited on Western assistance, the Russians purchased weapons and military equipment from Iran and North Korea. This left the Russians better equipped than the Ukrainian forces.

“The casualties and struggle were very serious,” one Ukrainian soldier said under anonymity. “We took many casualties. And in a matter of months, we lost [several] kilometers [in the east].”

Stalled Western aid allowed the Russians to make advances in the east, most notably in Avdiivka, and Ukraine lost ground. Finally, while there were delays in Western assistance, thousands of Ukrainian lives were lost due to these Russian bombardments and attacks. This has been most noticeable during the current Russian attack on Kharkiv province.

“Western countries need to be as serious and as committed to Ukraine as Iran and North Korea are in helping [Russian President Vladimir] Putin,” Cullinane stated. “Ukraine is buying the West time to mobilize our industrial base and to get serious about imposing costs on Russia. The West must show Putin he cannot outlast us and that our resolve to win will not fail.”

New U.S. aid to Ukraine, as well as additional assistance from the United Kingdom and the European Union, will help the Ukrainians reclaim territory in the south and east. But the West needs to ramp up its solidarity and commitment to Ukraine, to ensure that the Ukrainians win the war. Otherwise, the situation on the front will become more drastic.

“The danger of renewed [Western] complacency is worse than ever,” said James Nixey, the Director of Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme. “The stakes are higher than ever before. Russia is going all-in on its war. [If Ukraine loses], the world [will be] disastrously insecure and more turbulent.”

Some have not heeded these warnings. Instead, several Western politicians are pushing to abandon Ukraine. For example, many Republican politicians have argued that the U.S. should stop providing aid altogether — that aid for Ukraine is expensive, that the U.S. should not help fund a foreign war, and that the U.S. does not have any interests in Eastern Europe.

This group of Republicans in Congress is not alone. In Europe, several politicians believe their countries should stop assisting Ukraine. For example, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico stated that he will not support additional military aid to Ukraine. Similarly, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has continuously stood in the way of EU defense and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Both Fico and Orbán have called on the EU to scale back on its assistance to the Eastern European country.

Finally, there are some individuals who are simply tired of the war and they want it to end quickly. This group believes the newly-passed foreign aid to Ukraine will help speed up the war. Others have pushed for a swift end to the war.

The truth is that the war will not end quickly. As a Ukrainian soldier put it to me, “Russia is currently producing weapons and is mobilizing forces at a faster rate. The West and Ukraine need to continue their coordination about strategies to ensure Ukraine’s victory. [But for now], the new weapons from the West will help the Ukrainians stabilize the situation on the front in eastern Ukraine. This will us counter Russian aggression and target Russian fortifications.”

Therefore, the West must develop a concrete strategy to help Ukraine win the war. First, the United States and Europe should adjust their economies and industries to better supply the Ukrainians. Increased defense spending will replenish and enhance American and European stockpiles. It will employ thousands of individuals, and it will boost Western economies. It would also strengthen the national security of Western countries. This would provide weapons to the Ukrainians at a faster rate while also ensuring that Western countries are not without their own armaments.

Second, the West should establish a pattern that provides Ukraine with weapons and equipment efficiently and consistently. NATO countries are currently discussing how to create a program that will commitment members to aid Ukraine on an annual basis. Effectively and efficiently providing Ukrainians with defense capabilities was previously successful during Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive in 2022. The momentum gained from receiving these weapons will allow the Ukrainians to make further grounds on the battlefield while fighting against the Russians. Otherwise, further delays in assistance will weaken Ukrainian positions and lead to additional Ukrainian deaths.

Third, several Western countries stated that they aim to help Ukraine win the war. If this is the case, then these governments need to better inform their constituents about why they are helping Ukraine, and the dangers of a Russian victory in Ukraine. Providing transparency about the breakdown of Ukraine aid will inform westerners that much of the assistance has replenished domestic stockpiles and has employed thousands of citizens. Aid to Ukraine has been a small fraction of the defense budgets of several Western countries, and Western leaders need to stress the successes that Ukraine has had with foreign aid.

To date, the Russians have had nearly half a million casualties. One-third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been destroyed, and two-thirds of Russia’s pre-invasion tank force has been destroyed. These successes have come without the loss of life by Americans or others from NATO countries.

The alternative would be much worse. Should Russia gain ground and succeed in Ukraine, then the war would undoubtedly involve American and NATO forces. This would lead to a deadlier and costlier war.

Finally, to guarantee Ukrainian success, Western countries should lift their self-imposed restrictions and limits on aid to Ukraine. To date, there is still a concern among some Western officials that providing Ukrainians with weapons will escalate the war. Time and time again, these concerns have been unwarranted. When the war first began, Russia ordered the West not to intervene, threatening consequences. Despite these threats, the West provided Ukraine with weapons, and Ukrainians reclaimed territory in northern and central Ukraine.

Similarly, when the West toyed with giving the Ukrainians HIMARS, the Russians stated that they would escalate the war. The West provided the HIMARS, and nothing came of these Russian threats. Finally, and more recently, the West has provided the Ukrainians with ATACMS and other long-range missile capabilities. This will allow Ukraine to strike ammunition depots and Russian factories that are helping produce materials and equipment for the war.

Overall, Ukraine’s determination and grit, as well as Western assistance, will make a Ukrainian victory achievable. The Ukrainians have demonstrated that they are ready to do whatever it takes to win the war. They have brought significant losses to the Russian Federation, and the Ukrainians have reclaimed more than half of the temporarily Russian-occupied territory.

Ukraine is very capable of winning this war. The West must decide if it is willing to show a similar commitment.

Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.