Much has been written recently about the state of America’s deterrence, or lack thereof. The world has witnessed the negligible impact of sanctions on the Russian economy for its war against Ukraine as Russian oligarchs continue to rake in millions if not billions.
In the Middle East, Iran and its proxies continue to aim at ships crossing the Red Sea Corridor, despite the presence of U.S. and allied naval ships.
In the Pacific, China is determined to expand its territorial claims through the first island chain, despite harsh words and statements from the U.S. and its partners in the region.
In all three theaters, U.S. deterrence is not working. Sanctions, which have not been updated since the rise of the global economy, do little to keep vital funding from aggressors’ pockets. Red lines are repeatedly crossed despite military presence. And words are too often dismissed as mere rhetoric.
Furthermore, the United Nations, the International Criminal Court and other international bodies have failed to hold perpetrators accountable. Despite signing international agreements, certain countries continue to ignore the rules set by global governing bodies and exploit that lack of enforcement for their benefit — both economically and militarily.
China is the world’s most flagrant offender. As just one example, a 2020 analysis of environmental standards by the U.S. Department of State detailed how as U.S. emissions declined over the past two decades, China’s increased. This is largely due to the lack of serious enforcement by the government.
As former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer noted in his recent book, “No Trade is Free,” “China’s leaders put on a show — signing agreements such as the 2015 Paris agreement and committing to be carbon neutral by 2060,” but “the government remains unwilling to impose excess regulatory costs on its firms.”
This unfair advantage allows China to produce more at a cheaper rate than its competitors and flood the world market with low-price, high-pollution products.
China’s neighbor, Russia, is another regular violator. Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas has allowed Vladimir Putin to undermine the effects of sanctions to fund its war against Ukraine. As Russia bilks European Union members through the sale of LNG, oil and coal, Europe is literally fueling the atrocities against the Ukrainian people.
Both China and Russia signed the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. Both are considered adversaries of the U.S. And both continue to flout international accords with impunity.
The U.S. speaks of a fair playing field, but when nations refuse to adhere to even the simplest of guidelines, the U.S. has only two choices — fight back unfairly, which would undermine its standing on the world stage, or level the playing field.
Capitol Hill and other policymakers are finally starting to take note of these inequities, and are working to devise new soft power tools to hold countries such as China and Russia to account.
One recent such example is the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which gave the Department of Homeland Security the ability to stop products at the border that have been produced through forced labor practices. But more needs to, and can be, done.
Leveraging trade in this way is increasingly seen as the most effective way to hit adversaries where it hurts. China’s continued abuse of international climate agreements should signal to the U.S. that pollution is something they know is a major weakness.
Whether it be a tariff or another mechanism, using climate as a forcing function would provide the defense industrial base a catalyst to form new partnerships and clean up and secure new supply chains that uphold America’s standards.
One proposal, the PROVE IT Act, was introduced in the House last week. The act would provide data detailing the ongoing — and rising — emissions from production in other countries compared to the U.S. This would vividly demonstrate China and Russia’s double talk on this urgent issue.
Acting on the pollution in the products exported by our adversaries would also slow output, providing American businesses crucial time to shore up and plan for the future. Whether it’s critical mineral mining, magnet production or petrochemicals — all uniquely environmentally dirty industries that America is dramatically cleaner on — all are vital in defending our nation. Not only would it boost our industries, it would also inflict real pain in a way that the status quo has failed to.
Compared to sanctions, Russian oil czar Igor Sechin said this approach could cause “incomparably greater damage to the economy than illegal restrictions imposed on Russia and Russian companies.”
Whatever happens in November, either party would benefit from a new tool of deterrence to level the playing field and hold non-compliant nation-states accountable for their actions.
For Democrats, considering such actions on China would raise overall environmental standards and address the inconsistency of saying the climate issue is important while letting the biggest polluter off the hook. As the world’s worst carbon polluter, climate change cannot be addressed until China is forced into compliance.
For Republicans, using pollution as a form of deterrence allows the party a uniquely capitalist path to addressing this global challenge, and would impose costs on two of America’s most dangerous adversaries — costing them billions, which may one day be used against the United States.
Amy K. Mitchell is a former senior official at the Departments of State and Defense.