Ominous warnings from Afghanistan’s last men standing

On Sept. 9 2001, a man by the name of Ahmad Shah Massoud was assassinated by al-Qaeda in North Eastern Afghanistan. Two days later, airplanes flew into the Twin Towers, leading to the most death and destruction on American soil perpetrated by a foreigner since the World Wars. 

How are these two events related? 

The answer to that question will provide clarity on what happened, what is happening and what will  happen in Afghanistan.  

Massoud, also known as Lion of Panjshir, was a Mujahideen commander and the leader of the Northern Alliance, a military alliance of rebel groups that operated between 1996 and 2001, after the Taliban took over Kabul. His rebel forces have been the only indigenous force to keep the Taliban at bay. He is touted as the hero of Afghanistan for his successes against the onslaught of al Qaeda and Taliban.  

Months prior to the attacks on 9/11, Massoud warned American intelligence officials that al Qaeda was planning an attack on American soil. However, he was sounding the alarm only for it to fall on deaf ears. That September, on orders of Osama Bin Laden, he was assassinated by al Qaeda operatives pretending to be journalists who concealed a bomb in their camera. 

Two days after the assassination, 9/11 happened — dragging American and NATO forces into Afghanistan. If only the U.S. had heeded his warning.

Twenty years later, Massoud’s son has a similar warning. Writing in the Washington Post, Ahmad Massoud puts it bluntly: “Under Taliban control, Afghanistan will without doubt become ground zero of radical Islamist terrorism; plots against democracies will be hatched here once again.”

With the fall of Kabul, Afghanistan’s president and his close associates fleeing the country, and several Afghan commanders throwing in the towel, Afghanistan’s Vice President Amrullah Saleh stood ground and did not abandon his country. Amrullah Saleh moved to the Northern province of Panjshir to revive the Northern Alliance to take on the Taliban. 

Historically, the province has been the stronghold for resistance fighters. Neither the Soviets nor the Taliban were able to conquer the region. Its mountains, rivers and terrain, along with its courageous people, made it an impossible feat for external forces to conquer the valley.  

Citing the provision in the Afghan constitution that makes the vice president the president when the latter absconds, Saleh has declared himself president. Providing him support are patriotic Afghan forces that have followed him to the valley and the resistance forces under the leadership of none other than Ahmad Massoud. Ahmad Massoud and Amrullah Saleh are holding the last strand of hope for an Afghan-led Afghanistan through their National Resistance Front. 

The Taliban have cut off phone and internet lines to Panjshir and are engaging in an information campaign to reinvent themselves as the “reformed Taliban” to gain legitimacy in the West and as a consequence, maintain aid and economic support. In the absence of material support, the Panjshir province will not be able to hold out against the Taliban offensive. 

As the last American airplanes depart Kabul and the Taliban take control of the airport, the remaining Americans and their allies have been transformed into sitting ducks with no escape in sight. Afghans from around the nation have sought refuge in Panjshir. Post withdrawal, Panjshir could be the only safe haven for Americans and their allies. 

As Saleh put it in his telephonic interview with the Canadian think tank, MacDonald-Laurier Institute, “I am not asking for re-engagement of Western militaries.” Resistance forces are not seeking American troops on the ground. Alternatively, they are seeking moral and material support to take on the Taliban and prevent the nation from falling to the hands of theocratic elements who are in bed with terror outfits such as the Haqqani Network and al Qaeda.  

Anti-imperialist and post colonialism scholars are ardent advocates for local mobilization and are opposed to foreign invasion or intervention. They cite America’s interventions beginning in the early 1900’s to its most recent debacle in Afghanistan as imperialist endeavors. And yet, progressives in the Western world who view the crisis in Afghanistan as a victory against American imperialism have not voiced their support for resistance forces led by Saleh and Massoud. It is baffling to witness progressive politicians stick to what former Pakistani ambassador to the U.S. Husain Haqqani called, “bumper sticker messages” as Rep.Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) has — without addressing Afghanistan’s takeover by a theocratic and barbaric outfit such as the Taliban that rapes, maims and kills innocent women and children — while remaining silent about Saleh and Massoud’s National Resistance Front, which wants democracy and women’s rights.  

It is interesting to note that conservatives voices such as Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson have provided a platform for the voices representing the resistance forces, while some media representations have begun to sanitize the Taliban as reformed and changed. 

The hard fought gains of the last 20 years would all be in vain if the U.S. recognizes the Taliban as the legitimate government and proceeds to support them with material and financial aid. The Afghan, American and all other lives lost in the two decades of war, fighting the same forces that are in power today, would be meaningless if the U.S. supports those forces and not the resistance forces fighting them. 

President Biden has mentioned that he holds in his jacket a tally of service members who were killed in the conflict. Supporting the Taliban will be an egregious act and will amount to dancing on the graves of the service members whose names he holds close to his chest. 

Alternatively, for once in America’s foreign policy history, it should heed the counsel of men on the ground fighting for their survival over academics and lobbyists in Washington D.C.  

Akhil Ramesh is a non-resident Vasey fellow at the Pacific Forum. He has worked with risk consulting firms, think tanks and in the blockchain industry in the United States, India and in the Philippines. His analysis has been published in The South China Morning Post, The Diplomat, Asia Times and the Jerusalem Post. Follow him on Twitter: @akhil_oldsoul