The folly of men’s college basketball preseason polls

The men’s NCAA basketball tournament field has been set. Alabama was named the top overall No. 1 seed, with Houston, Kansas and Purdue rounding out the No. 1 seeds. Looking back six months, the Associated Press (AP) Preseason Poll Top 25 had North Carolina as the top team, which did not even make the tournament, the first time that a No. 1 preseason pick missed the tournament. Conversely, Purdue, Marquette and Kansas State, three dominant teams throughout the season, were not in AP’s top 25. 

Among the top 25 in the AP preseason poll, six teams did not make the tournament: North Carolina (1), Villanova (16), Oregon (21), Michigan (22), Dayton (23), Texas Tech (25)).

The ESPN Preseason Poll did not fare much better. They missed the same six teams as the AP poll. 

Both preseason polls had Florida State listed as receiving votes, even though they had one of their worst season in decades. 

Andy Katz, a well-known college basketball analyst, had 29 teams (of 36) make the tournament in his post-NBA draft Power 36. His top three were North Carolina, Gonzaga (who ended up seeded No. 3) and Kentucky (who ended up seeded No. 6). Conspicuously absent from his Power 36 were Alabama and Iowa State, both of which comfortably made the NCAA tournament field. 

So, why is it so difficult to forecast at the beginning of a season which will be the best teams at the end of the season? 

Games are played on the court, not on a computer. How a team finished the prior season, as well as which players they will lose and gain are useful inputs. However, such information has its limitations to forecast a full season of performance. This means that the potential for a successful season must be realized game by game. Numerous factors, like player injuries and team chemistry can derail the best laid coaching plans. 

The transfer portal — a database and compliance tool to manage players who are interested in transferring schools — has created additional team uncertainty. It has forced coaches to refill their rosters with incoming transfers as some of their prior starters and role players used the transfer portal to seek new opportunities. The resulting transfer portal chaos means that not only must the talent of each team be assessed, but how they will coalesce together as a unit must be managed with care. The former is straightforward to assess, while the latter is near impossible. 

The takeaway from preseason polls is that it is exceedingly difficult to know in October how teams will perform throughout the season. Preseason polls give sports commentators and fans something to talk about, but their ability to forecast an entire season of play is limited. This makes them a vehicle for entertainment rather than assessment. 

Quantitative tools available on KenPom and Sagarin provide meaningful information to calibrate team performance. Yet, they are most useful only once teams have played several games, limiting their preseason utility.

So, in spite of the attention that preseason polls are given, what happens on the court is the only factor that really matters. This explains why every other AP poll (from Week 1 to the final regular season poll at Week 18) included no more than three teams that did not make the NCAA tournament field. Moreover, the final four polls (Weeks 15 through 18) only included teams that made the tournament.  

What every season demonstrates is that no one can predict before the season begins with any certainty how a team will perform throughout an entire season. Until teams take the court and play actual games, expected performance may be realized, exceeded or fall short. 

With the NCAA tournament, also known as March Madness, set to begin in just a few days, the unforgiving nature of single elimination tournaments means that polls and prognosticators take a back seat to pick-and-rolls and full-court presses. College basketball fans would have it no other way.  

Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a founder professor of computer science at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. He is also the founder of the Bracketodds website, a STEM Learning Lab at the university.