Is China ahead of the US in the new race for the moon?

Recently, China launched its latest robotic lunar lander, the Chang’e 6, headed for a sample return mission on the far side of the moon. 

Greg Autry, the coauthor of a new space policy book, “Red Moon Rising,” noticed something interesting about the probe’s destination. He pointed out that it would land “in the resource-rich South Pole-Aitken (SPA) basin,” aiming for “a crater called ‘Apollo’ which is named in honor of America’s great lunar achievement.” 

“Apollo’s interior and adjacent craters are named for Apollo astronauts and memorialize deceased NASA employees including the lost crew of the Space Shuttle Columbia,” Autry noted.

He finds that this is no coincidence. “Chang’e 6 will literally raise a communist Chinese flag there. The Chinese are extremely careful with protocol, any small slight is intentional.”

Leaving aside the slight to the United States, the Chinese lunar effort is going quite well, with three successful landing missions and a fourth on the way.

Chang’e 3 landed in the northern Mare Imbrium area of the nearside of the moon in 2013. It carried a small, Yutu rover. The probe came equipped with cameras, a ground penetrating radar, a visible/near-infrared imaging spectrometer, and an alpha particle x-ray spectrometer.

Chang’e 4 landed in the Von Karmen crater in an area of the lunar south pole on the far side of the moon in 2018. The probe also contained a Yutu rover. Both the lander and rover carried several scientific instruments and cameras,

Chang’e 5 landed on the Mons Rumker region of Oceanus Procellarum in 2020. Its main goal was to return 2 kilograms of lunar regolith to Earth. The sample included a minuscule amount of helium 3, an isotope abundant in lunar soil that could be used to power future fusion power plants.

Chang’e 6 is also designed to return a lunar soil sample, perhaps including ice. It also carries a small rover and instruments provided by France, Sweden and Pakistan.

How does the West, including signatories of the Artemis Accords, stand up against the Chinese accomplishments? It turns out that the United States and its commercial and international partners are behind in the current race to the moon.

Recent moon landing failures include the Israeli Beresheet, the Indian Chandrayaan-2, the Japanese iSpace Hakuto-R and the Astrobotic Peregrine. However, the Artemis Alliance has had its share of successful moon landings, albeit some of them qualified.

India successfully landed the Chandrayaan-3 on the moon’s south pole in August. The lander included a rover and carried cameras and several instruments.

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) probe Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM) landed in January at the Mare Nectris. It deployed two lunar rovers. However, SLIM landed upside down, which complicated operations. Nevertheless, the probe has survived 3 lunar nights, unexpectedly, and is currently returning images and data.

The Intuitive Machines Odysseus almost didn’t make it. It landed, skidded across the lunar surface, snapped a landing leg and wound up on its side. Nevertheless, it was able to return some good science before being turned off at the advent of lunar night.

Astrobiotic, iSpace and Intuitive Machines are planning second lunar landing attempts under NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services program.

As for crewed lunar landings, NASA still schedules Artemis III for late 2026. But because of challenges developing the SpaceX Starship Human Landing System and the spacesuits the astronauts will wear on the lunar surface, plus problems with the Orion capsule’s heat shield, no one will be surprised if the next American lunar landing is pushed back a year or two.

In the meantime, the Chinese are certain that they will have their astronauts on the moon by 2030. China is already making plans for its lunar base.

On the face of it, it looks like America and its international and commercial allies should get back to the moon years before China, if everything turns out right, avoiding the embarrassment of being beaten in Moon Race 2.0.

Of course, as Autry points out in his book, the prize of the real space race will go to the side that develops the moon’s resources. China has a long-term strategy to use space to dominate Earth and access to the moon is a key to that plan.

Demographic problems and poor economic choices may doom China as a coherent state in the long run. But, before China falls, the United States and its allies must restrain their ambitions, in space, especially.

Mark R. Whittington, who writes frequently about space policy, has published a political study of space exploration entitled “Why is It So Hard to Go Back to the Moon?” as well as “The Moon, Mars and Beyond,” and, most recently, “Why is America Going Back to the Moon?” He blogs at Curmudgeons Corner.