Editor’s note: This story was updated to correct the number of users on a social media site. We regret the error.
The Supreme Court upheld the TikTok ban, causing the app to go dark for half a day. Then, Trump issued an executive order to postpone the ban for 75 days, allowing TikTok to go back online.
Beyond the legal complexities, these events set the tone for U.S.-China relations as Trump begins his second term. At least initially, this dynamic suggests that Trump might be more inclined to make concessions than Xi Jinping — a scenario Xi likely finds advantageous as the relationship resets.
Trump’s efforts to salvage the TikTok situation illustrate this point. On Jan. 16, he proposed terms in which the U.S. would have a 50 percent stake “in a joint venture” that would be “set up between the U.S. and whichever purchase we so choose.” Trump recently said that he is open to Elon Musk buying TikTok and floated a proposal that the U.S. government could jointly own half the company.
This approach, however, raises legal challenges. Under the law, a 90-day extension can only be granted if “significant progress” has been made toward selling TikTok’s U.S. operations — something that hasn’t materialized.
Additionally, Trump’s earlier proposal for 50 percent total U.S. ownership deviates from the law’s insistence on full divestment by ByteDance, TikTok’s Chinese parent company. And if ByteDance is allowed to keep its ownership of TikTok, national security risks for the U.S. will indeed remain. These inconsistencies could make the executive order vulnerable to legal scrutiny.
China’s reaction also signals a shift. After Trump’s extension, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning commented, “Corporate operations and acquisitions should be independently decided by companies based on market principles. If Chinese companies are involved, they should comply with Chinese laws.”
This softer tone contrasted with Beijing’s earlier stance when it blocked ByteDance from selling TikTok to U.S. investors by amending the law to restrict the selling of technology with data analysis for personalized information recommendation services. Reports now suggest that Chinese officials may be open to selling TikTok to trusted U.S. businesses, such as Elon Musk’s companies.
Trump’s executive order has given Xi Jinping more leverage than he had when Congress initially passed the TikTok ban. For Xi, maintaining his stance without making the first concession is critical. Securing the final say would be even more advantageous — and this outcome might become reality in the TikTok saga.
Initially, when the law passed, Xi faced a no-win choice of either shutting TikTok down or else allowing its sale. Neither option was ideal. A sale would not only relinquish control of TikTok — rendering it effectively meaningless for Beijing — but also signal weakness to the U.S., which was unacceptable to Xi.
Xi’s approach reveals his rigidness in diplomacy: He cannot accept defeat, even if victory is purely symbolic. This insistence on appearances gives Trump a strategic advantage. By observing Xi’s playbook, Trump can tailor U.S. policies accordingly.
During Biden’s presidency, the U.S. never truly grasped Xi’s bottom line. As a result, the Biden administration often appeared anxious, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken repeatedly traveling to Beijing to establish dialogue and discern China’s true intentions. The administration continually emphasized avoiding misunderstandings, assuring China that the U.S. had no intention of decoupling while urging Beijing to make changes.
China, however, kept the U.S. on edge by responding indifferently, cutting off military communications, and amplifying Washington’s unease. In that dynamic, China clearly held the upper hand.
But the TikTok incident forced Xi to reveal his position, which is advantageous for Trump. No matter how Xi responds, Trump would stand to benefit.
If Xi adopts a hardline stance, Trump could use this to push for supply chain diversification and greater manufacturing independence. Xi’s “scorched earth” attitude would justify relocating critical industries out of China, minimizing political resistance in the U.S.
If Xi compromises, such as agreeing to sell TikTok, Trump will gain leverage. A concession on TikTok could set a precedent, signaling Xi’s willingness to negotiate on other issues, such as trade and tariffs.
As Trump begins his second term, intense U.S.-China negotiations on trade and other issues are inevitable. By forcing Xi to show his hand early, Trump enters these talks from a position of strength. Notably, Trump didn’t pay a political price for initiating the TikTok ban — credit for that goes to the Biden administration. If TikTok’s 170 million U.S. users are upset, Biden shoulders the blame.
However, Trump’s recent efforts to keep TikTok online could weaken his position. By appearing to accommodate Beijing’s preferences, Trump risks starting his second term with a tone of compromise. This dynamic could place the U.S. at a strategic disadvantage as it navigates its renewed relationship with China.
Simone Gao is an independent journalist and her website is zoomingin.tv