Donald Trump’s ‘Nixon strategy’ could pay off in 2024

Donald Trump departed the presidency with the same power he wielded as a billionaire real estate developer: leverage. 

Although Trump won more than 74 million votes in 2020, many Republicans wrote Trump off and were ready to move on from him, but Trump still had cards still to play. His leverage over the Republican Party is that he represents the bridge between the “party that was” and the “party it is becoming.” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) wrote on Twitter, “We are a working-class party now. That’s the future.”

Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), in a memorandum to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) in March 2021, wrote: “President Trump gave the Republican Party a political gift: We are now the party supported by most working-class voters. The question is whether the Republican Party will reject the gift or unwrap it and permanently become the party of the working class.”

Trump can rally the working class vote like few Republicans have been able to do since Ronald Reagan. His “Forgotten Man” language connects him with those who believe that they are not getting a fair shake from Washington insiders, political elites and global corporations. 

One problem with “Trumpism” is that it is built more on leverage than it is on a governing philosophy. This makes it more transactional than unifying. A Trump endorsement provides a level of built-in political support, especially in a primary election, but it also serves to brand a candidate with many of the pejorative invectives leveled against Trump the man, rather than his policies, and branding that can limit a candidate’s crossover appeal in the general election.

This is not to say that a Trump endorsement is not powerful and coveted by Republican candidates across America, because his endorsement provides a lift like no other endorsement can. As CBS News recently reported, “Trump has endorsed nearly 130 candidates for 2022, testing his influence in the Republican Party.” Trump’s tried-and-true strategy is one that resurrected the political career of Richard Nixon after he lost the presidency in 1960 and governorship of California in 1962. Nixon would go on to win the Republican nomination for president in 1968, and the presidency.

No would have bet that, eight years after losing to John F. Kennedy and then losing to Democrat Pat Brown in California, Nixon would be back on top in 1968. In 1962, Nixon gave what many felt was his “last news conference” stating, “I leave you gentlemen now, and you will write it. You will interpret. That’s your right. But as I leave you, I want you to know — just think how much you’re going to be missing. You won’t have Nixon to kick around anymore, because gentlemen, this is my last press conference, and it will be the one in which I have welcomed the opportunity to test wits with you.” 

A lesson from Nixon in 1968 is that candidacies are decided more by events than by party leaders, press or prevailing wisdom. In Nixon’s case, the Republican Party took a disastrous turn to the right in 1964 by nominating Sen. Barry Goldwater of Arizona who infamously stated in his convention speech, “Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice. Moderation in pursuit of justice is no virtue.” Goldwater had branded himself and went on to win only six states.  Conservatism was viewed as risky in the aftermath of his defeat.

The 1960s was a time of social upheaval and widespread domestic violence spawned from the civil rights movement and protests against the Vietnam War. It was a time when the American people wanted to return to some semblance of normalcy. Nixon represented normalcy. He was the safe bet, the man who had faithfully served as Dwight Eisenhower’s vice president for eight years. Nixon had a lot of what we perhaps hoped we were getting with Joe Biden, until we didn’t.

There are other parallels to today as we enter the post-COVID era with new challenges begun by Black Lives Matter and framed by the diversity agenda, and a revolt by parents against curricula about race and gender identity in schools that may change the face of politics in America. At this point, the Biden team seems like a crisis-creating machine and many Americans are starting to look beyond him — toward a return to a less chaotic America.

This is why 2024 may be shaping up to be the second political resurrection of Trump’s candidacy. Trump is building his political capital with his endorsements. He is raising money.  The Biden administration, at least at this point, is handing him an “I told you so” agenda on which to run. The nation is exhausted in the wake of COVID-19 and scared by runaway inflation. The last “normal time” many people remember is pre-COVID. Trump would be well served to lay claim to the normalcy he created — and to promise he can do it again for America. 

Trump’s greatest — and perhaps insurmountable — challenge is to move the focus to the issues and off himself. This will require him to define “Trumpism” as a governing philosophy and to frame issues that bring people together, rather than drive them apart. Too heavy a lift for Donald Trump? Maybe, but not if he keeps his eyes on the prize.

Dennis M. Powell is founder of Massey Powell, an issues management strategy consultancy based in Plymouth Meeting, Pa. He was retained for six years by Trump Entertainment Resorts to build coalitions.