Kristin Tate: In year two, how Trump could defeat Trump

President Trump’s second year, a time many presidents see as a chance to hit their stride and notch their signature victories, has begun. But Trump faces a number of obstacles — the Robert Mueller investigation, Michael Wolff’s “Fire and Fury,” Steve Bannon’s public departure, and unprecedented obstructionism from the Democrats, to name a few. Cheering on all of Trump’s gray skies is a vocal media. However, all of those forces combined don’t add up to the president’s largest challenge.

That challenge is President Trump himself.

{mosads}Year one may have been a time of setting the stage, but year two should get the show on the road. Trump navigates a hostile media with unique skill — and yet he is missing glowing accomplishments. Until the president completes his core campaign promises he risks the loyalty of his own base and a second term.

No amount of bipartisan meetings in the cabinet room or New York Times interviews will change this simple fact: Trump will never win over Congressional Democrats or the mainstream media. With so much of the establishment’s infrastructure lined up against him, the president must prioritize consolidating his own supporters. Trump’s base is among the strongest in presidential history. But considering that the 2016 vote came down to under 78,000 votes in three key states, there’s scant room for error. In 2020, if Trump loses even just a small portion of his base, he also loses the White House.

Trump aide on shutdown: “I think you’ve seen us move throughout the negotiation on immigration” https://t.co/0vKswPGBZE pic.twitter.com/I6bwXXVWUs

— The Hill (@thehill) January 21, 2018

Candidate Trump was the only candidate, since Ronald Reagan, to successfully mobilize traditional Republicans, blue collar Democrats, and Perot-ian independents to pull off a historic victory in 2016. But that was 14 months ago — and now many of those same voters are asking: Where’s the beef?

The wall hasn’t been built. ObamaCare is still the law of the land. There are still more questions than answers about Hillary Clinton’s email server and Huma Abedin’s classified files. The travel ban is a shadow of its original proposal.

Trump’s actions on these issues are what will determine whether or not his supporters stick with him. The frantic, unfavorable media coverage that blasts Trump as a buffoon or a racist will have zero influence on his base. The mechanic in Iowa and the bus driver in Indiana have little interest in reading the Washington Post. Most will never open a copy of “Fire & Fury.” Some stay out of the coastal media’s anti-Trump bubble altogether.

Trump must make 2018 the year of the Trump accomplishments, yet it doesn’t quite seem that way sitting in January. Bannon is gone, Wolff has Trump’s attention, and many members of the original Trump Train are on to other paths. In their stead come same-old, same-old figures like Gary Cohn, Jared Kushner, and Ivanka Trump. Their instincts are to make empty deals with the swamp — not to destroy it.

White House changes public voicemail to say Dems are holding government funding “hostage” https://t.co/eDyIOjqi7A pic.twitter.com/NCkx6XxpuY

— The Hill (@thehill) January 22, 2018

DACA is always going to be the Democrats’ poison pill. No matter what Trump offers, it will remain a political trap. The Dems decided to shut down the government over the fight — a fight that, if Trump doesn’t act quickly, they will win handily. Don’t trade a token to save Obama’s legacy. Instead, fast track the wall. Enforce the travel ban with vigor. The Individual Mandate is dead, but the rest of ObamaCare is rotting our medical system. The U.S. still faces unfair trade competition from China, Mexico, and Canada. Outsourcing is declining yet an integral threat to the wellbeing of families and communities across the 50 states. Trump has a unique opportunity to unleash competition and innovation unseen since Ronald Reagan’s first term.

Wall Street is booming and unemployment is the lowest it’s been in decades — some of that success has reached the heartland. However, in many parts of the country, more needs to be done. Illegal immigration pushes down wages and 75 percent of all federal drug convictions involve illegal immigrants. ObamaCare packages are increasing an average of 34 percent in 2018! Trump is fixing the roof while the foundation is caving in.

Folks from flyover country want America to win again. Small victories bring small consequences.

Caving in on the wall — Trump’s most significant campaign promise — would be a betrayal of the first order. The president seeks $18 billion for the full construction costs but can divert Homeland Security Funding to kick the process off. He signed the executive order to start work on the wall a full year ago; but now Kellyanne Conway says that the president realizes that the wall doesn’t need to be a real, “physical wall.”

Conway: Trump “discovered” there doesn’t need to be a physical wall along entire border https://t.co/Ogz7gk7WUO pic.twitter.com/fB1s0P0Up3

— The Hill (@thehill) January 12, 2018

Sorry, but a hasty deal for ethereal “border security” in exchange for the demographic destiny of the United States simply won’t cut it. It’s a simple formula: The wall or no second term.  

Donald Trump won in 2016 because he boldly articulated the faults and failures of the establishment. What the president needs to realize is that many of these disaffected voters loved his message more than him. The blue-collar worker whose home faces foreclosure or farmer that lost out due to illegal immigration will see through failures quicker than a pundit in the Beltway. Simply put: They’ll stay home or write in Ron Paul if Trump proves to be another person who lost to the swamp.

Come 2020, if Trump doesn’t build a fortress of wins, his base will point the finger right back at him. They were promised winning until you “get tired of winning.” If the mood in small town cafes and bingo halls are any indication, this promise will be the biggest indicator of Donald Trump’s time on the political stage.

Kristin Tate is author of the upcoming book “How Do I Tax Thee?” and an analyst for Capitalism.com. Follow her on Twitter @KristinBTate.