At a certain point, all decisions and election chances in politics come down to basic math. No matter how some consultants, pollsters or campaign managers may attempt to complicate the process to justify their fees or salaries paid by a candidate or company, it still comes down to this: Does the math finish on the “plus side” for him or her to run, and does it finish on the plus side for the candidate to win?
My mother used to say, “If you can read, you can cook.” In the arena of political elections, if you can do basic addition and subtraction, you can honestly advise a candidate whether to run. Former President Donald Trump has some of that basic math working against him — but also, for him.
What he and his mercurial ego really will do becomes the political question of the 2024 presidential cycle.
With each passing week, there are reports of more and more Republicans suffering from “Trump fatigue.” Although many still strongly approve of most of Trump’s policies from his four years in the White House, they have grown increasingly tired of his perceived juvenile antics and insults. Worse for Trump, many now blame him for the GOP losing the chance to take control of the Senate — not only in the November midterms, when he forced marginal candidates on the party with his endorsements, but also back in 2021 when he suppressed GOP voter turnout with negative comments and attacks in Georgia’s runoff election.
On top of that, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis comfortably leads Trump in the latest polls among Republicans. Given all this, does it spell the end for Trump as a viable GOP presidential candidate?
Not necessarily. It all comes down to those fairly simple addition and subtraction equations.
In this case, the relevant question becomes: If Trump decides to run as a third-party candidate, could he somehow manage to win enough significant states to beat the GOP nominee (whether it’s DeSantis or someone else) and the Democratic nominee (whether it’s President Biden or someone else)? Even a high school student who’s truly proficient in math might be able to give Trump that answer.
In 2020, there were approximately 155 million votes cast — Biden received about 81 million to Trump’s 74 million. That said, Biden’s electoral victory really came down to about 70,000 votes in several critically important states. Had those votes ended up on Trump’s side of the ledger, he would have been reelected.
Of the 74 million votes Trump received, some believe he still may retain around 50 million of them. Although I believe that’s a generous estimate, the fact is that tens of millions of Americans remain loyal to Trump.
That is where the next part of the math equation comes into play. In which states and counties are those loyal Trump voters located? As the 70,000-vote margin for 2020 shows, securing a presidential victory still comes down to winning a half of 1 percent in one district, a quarter of a percent in one county, and an eighth of a percent in one state.
And then we have to ask: How much of the approximately $100 million that Trump and his team have raised from his loyal followers would he be willing to spend on, first, getting on the ballot in every state, and next, getting his “loyal” voters to go to the polls? If the past midterm serves as an example, it’s not much.
That becomes a basic math answer. If Trump is not willing to spend a realistic amount of money to self-fund a third-party presidential campaign, the high school math whiz-kid could tell him categorically it makes no sense to try.
But, what if Trump’s ego tells him he has to run in 2024 as a third-party candidate to avenge Biden’s win in 2020 and as a way to stick it to those “Republican rats” who are deserting the Trump ship in droves? And what if Trump finally does roll out a kinder, gentler, more statesman-like version of himself for 2024?
I have argued that even though Trump has announced his candidacy, I don’t believe he intends to go through with a full campaign. Instead, I think he made the announcement to keep his “franchise” viable and keep the campaign donations coming in. Of course, Trump has proved prognostications about him to be false before.
It really does boil down to basic math equations when it comes down to Trump’s being competitive in either a Republican primary or as a third-party candidate. With his star waning, are the numbers still there for him to entertain a run?
Most likely not, but Trump and his ego might soon see an opening as clear as day — especially if he remembers that, in 1992, Texas businessman Ross Perot, even after making some bizarre statements, still managed to garner 19 percent of the vote in the race against then-Gov. Bill Clinton and sitting President George H.W. Bush. It’s a number that Trump knows he surely could best, and that might make him believe he could cobble together just enough states and electoral votes to win in a three-way race.
To this day, some believe Perot — and his fragile ego (sound familiar?) — ran only to act as a “spoiler” to prevent Bush’s reelection. Might Trump do the same thing to punish DeSantis and “disloyal” Republicans? That answer has nothing to do with basic math, however, and everything to do with a “sandbox mentality.”
Douglas MacKinnon, a political and communications consultant, was a writer in the White House for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and former special assistant for policy and communications at the Pentagon during the last three years of the Bush administration