According to a recent Wall Street Journal poll, the four prosecutions bedeviling former President Donald Trump are deemed illegitimate by a plurality of the country. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives is heading towards an impeachment inquiry targeting President Joe Biden — which will likely be deemed equally suspect by a separate plurality of the nation.
Trump’s and Biden’s legal challenges, symptoms of the country’s broader struggle with extreme partisanship, are mirror images in that each candidate’s supporters embrace the rule of law in one case while railing against its misuse in the other. It all has the feel of a holy war, where compromise is impossible, and normalcy is subordinated to each opposing side’s perceived truth and higher purpose.
With such immutable, opposing forces on inexorable paths driven by massive constituencies, each certain of their own righteousness, this all seems likely to end very badly. It is not hard to envision multiple convulsions engulfing the country in the coming months if one or more of Trump’s legal entanglements results in a guilty verdict and potentially jail time, or if he is stripped of his right to the ballot in various states via a 14th Amendment invocation. After all, how stable is a republic, based upon the sovereignty of its people, when nearly half of those people will view themselves as denied their rightful sovereignty?
Conventional wisdom is that the way out of this mess lies squarely with Trump. In another universe, and possessed of different DNA, he might take the high ground and leave the race, letting his legal chips fall where they may and taking his chances with a future president who could see wisdom in a blanket pardon to avoid a national schism.
But the author of “The Art of the Deal” who has said “I look at everything like a deal” and “deals come out of my ears,” would never take such steps, seeing them as tantamount to unilateral disarmament. Besides, his campaign is now the vehicle to fund his mounting legal bills, and winning a second term would give him control over a pardon. For a man who brazenly declared in his campaign kick-off speech that he would be the “retribution” president, the prospect of regaining control of the Department of Justice must be compelling.
Trump, a veteran of countless lawsuits, seems to relish court battles. But this time is different. His fate lies not with a judge but at the whims of various unpredictable juries, and his downside — the rest of his life in jail — has never been greater.
So I would be surprised if the self-proclaimed “greatest dealmaker ever” is not contemplating various ways to extract himself from his current predicament.
Ironically, Biden’s thinking must now be similar to Trump’s. Last week, liberal columnist David Ignatius, an avatar of the establishment, called for Biden to step aside, thus opening the floodgates for the broader Democratic Party establishment to do the same.
But Biden has little incentive to resign. He, like Trump, must see the presidency as similar insulation from legal jeopardy for himself and his family. And Peggy Noonan is likely right when she pointed out that Biden simply “can’t resist the river of power” in which he is the biggest fish.
It’s time for the deal of the century. Trump and Biden could mutually agree to drop from the race subject to these conditions:
- Their legal jeopardy ends. The New York, Georgia, Florida, and Washington D.C. prosecutions, and the House inquiry, are all dropped.
- All major Republican and Democratic presidential candidates sign a pledge to pardon Trump, Biden — and their family members — if elected president.
Every dealmaker understands that the best transactions are concluded when each party secures big wins while also leaving the negotiating table a bit unsatisfied, and this deal — albeit audacious and ambitious — would fit that description like a glove.
Trump and Biden would secure everything they presumably desire, except the presidency. The Democrats would be relieved of a historically weak incumbent presidential candidate at the top of the ticket, but they would lose the satisfaction of seeing Trump in jail. The country would be the big winner.
Every deal needs someone to propose it, to make the opening move. I’m not holding my breath for Trump to do so. He seems to thrive on chaos. Our current national nightmare might just be his comfort zone. Biden won’t do it, because it would underline the fragile state of his candidacy.
This solution will only happen if some political leader is — or, better yet, leaders from both sides of the aisle are — bold enough to propose it, and the media and public demand it. So who’s ready to assume the mantle of a modern-day Monty Hall and suggest to the candidates, “Let’s Make a Deal”?
Emil W. Henry, Jr., formerly U.S. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, is CEO of private equity firm Tiger Infrastructure Partners.