What I know about Joe Manchin

Several months ago, I hosted a fundraiser for Sen. Joe Manchin on Long Island. My progressive friends flooded my in-box almost instantly with incredulous, all caps, “HOW COULD YOU?????” protests. One would have thought I was supporting Vlad the Impaler instead of the Democratic senator from West Virginia.

I should have expected it. It’s been easy for the far-left to attack Manchin and much harder for them to credit his left-of-center accomplishments. As the New York Times noted in its coverage of Manchin’s decision, he was instrumental in the “passage of the biggest investment in clean energy in U.S. history, the largest financing of bridges since the construction of the interstate highway system, the first bipartisan gun safety legislation in a generation, a huge microchip production and scientific research bill to bolster American competitiveness with China, a major veterans health care measure, and an overhaul of the electoral system designed to prevent another Jan. 6-style attempt to overturn a presidential election” as well as “playing a central role in shaping Mr. Biden’s efforts to fight climate change.”

Pretty progressive, if you ask me.

Manchin’s decision has put the political world in a state hyperventilation. The pundits are recalibrating the mix of 2024 Senate races that will decide the majority. Like old Kremlinologists, they parse and analyze every faint hint about whether Manchin will run for president — and, if he does, whom will it help and whom will it hurt?

Just as Manchin set the stage and commanded the spotlight with every close vote in the Senate, he did so again in the video announcing he wouldn’t seek reelection. He announced he would travel the country and assess the appetite for a new movement that brings together Democrats and Republicans. Tongues wagged, hearts beat, predictions blared with absolute certainty (if not credulity) on what it all meant for the future of a Democratic Senate and Democratic White House.

Let’s take a breath.

Yes, Manchin’s decision undeniably steepens the Democrats’ path to retain their 51-seat majority, but it doesn’t blockade them. Manchin was the only Democrat able to win West Virginia (Donald Trump won the state by nearly 40 points). Meanwhile, Democrats continue to defend incumbents in two tossup races in Montana (John Tester) and Ohio (Sherrod Brown.)

But, especially after last Tuesday’s successes in Kentucky, Ohio and Virginia, the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee sees opportunities in Texas and Florida. According to most credible political forecasters, Democratic incumbents currently retain the advantage in competitive seats in Montana, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The most accurate thing we can say a year away from election day is that Manchin’s decision has cost Democrats a seat, but not the majority.

The larger questions are whether Manchin runs for president, and whether a third-party candidacy tips the scales for Biden or Trump. Here, the path for a third-party presidential victory is paved with a mix of ravenous appetite and wishful thinking. But neither wins elections. It’s very late in the game to raise the hundreds of millions of dollars necessary to run a winning national campaign. As the New York Times reported, even Manchin’s supporters note that he’s not the most enthusiastic fundraiser in politics — he’s much more interested brokering a deal than begging for dollars.

A presidential campaign requires infrastructure that is planted deeply and expansively on the ground. According to another Times report, the centrist group No Labels, which has been raising money and laboring to qualify an as-yet-unnamed candidate for the presidential ballot has stalled in the effort, securing access in only 12 states. Perhaps Manchin would give them the spark they need. But you need more than a spark — you need nuclear energy to do the hard, the laborious work of getting on the ballot and winning states.

More than anything, Joe Manchin has a career of being effective. He’s delivered to West Virginia — and to Democrats and Republicans — seeking compromise in the Senate. He runs to win; negotiates to achieve realistic, pragmatic victories. But 270 votes in the Electoral College? I can see the political math where his presidential campaign helps Donald Trump win, but I can also see the political math where his presidential campaign helps Joe Biden win. I just don’t see creditable political math that helps Joe Manchin win, at least for now.

One of my fondest memories of Manchin was in the fall of 2016, when he invited me to travel with several senators across a network of military bases protecting us from a North Korean missile attack. At one point, our group was escorted to the Demilitarized Zone. There, just a few feet over a slight curb, menacing North Korean guards glared at us, clenched their fists and aimed their cameras. Manchin leaned over to me and kidded, “Steve, I think we can take them.”

I laughed. But the moment is instructive. Manchin has always understood the difference between winnable and unwinnable fights; the difference between pipe-dreams and pragmatism; the vital lesson of fighting to make a difference, not to make a point.

America needs a movement that can unify moderate Democrats and Republicans and push our country forward. I hope Joe Manchin runs that movement. But run for president? It could be a fool’s errand, and Joe Manchin is anything but foolish.

Steve Israel represented New York in the U.S. House of Representatives over eight terms and was chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee from 2011 to 2015. He is now director of the Cornell Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy Institute of Politics and Global Affairs. Follow him @RepSteveIsrael.