Russia has recently moved about a half-dozen tanks into Syria and is increasing its military flights to the country, according to a U.S. official.
Moscow now has about seven tanks at a Syrian airfield near Latakia, in what the official characterized Monday as a major new development in the country.
{mosads}While Russia has supported the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since the beginning of his four-year civil war with rebel forces, the support was mostly “defensive.”
But it is hard to characterize the tanks as “defensive” support given that forces fighting the Assad regime — both moderate groups and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) — do not possess the same type of capability, at least not in any meaningful way, the official said.
Russia has also been increasing the number of its military flights to the Syrian airfield, the official said. Last week, it was six to seven flights. This week, Russia has already conducted even more, according to the official.
“We have movement of people and things that would indicate that they plan to use that base there south of Latakia as a forward air operating base,” said Pentagon spokesman Navy Capt. Jeff Davis.
Davis did not go into specifics of what was being shipped, but said, “That airport is being readied to be used as a forward air base.” He said no fighter jets or aircraft have been sent yet.
The flights have been on giant Russian Condor cargo planes, the largest military transport aircraft in the world, according to Jane’s Defense.
The flights are continuing despite a warning from President Obama on Friday, and calls to Moscow by Secretary of State John Kerry.
“We are going to be engaging Russia to let them know that you can’t continue to double down on a strategy that’s doomed to failure,” Obama said.
Obama had also said Russia’s support would not affect the U.S. strategy in Syria, which involves striking ISIS targets, training moderate rebels, and supporting those rebels and other vetted groups with airstrikes, while working toward a political settlement that does not include Assad.
“This is going to be a long discussion that we’ll be having with the Russians, but it is not going to prevent us from continuing to go after ISIL very hard,” the president said, using a different acronym for ISIS.
However, experts say that Russia’s support will indeed effect the U.S. strategy — it will make it much harder for the U.S. to reach that political settlement, draining U.S. resources spent there, and possibly result in a proxy war between the U.S. and Russia.
“It will complicate the battle against ISIS. It will totally derail our anemic campaign to get rid of Assad,” said Amb. James Jeffrey, who served in both the George W. Bush and Obama administrations and is a fellow at the The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
“[Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s goal in life is to reverse the entire American-led global order since 1945. … He sees this as an opportunity because he knows Obama will do nothing more than make a public statement,” he said.
U.S. officials are concerned that the use of tanks will result in a higher number of civilian casualties and prolong the instability in Syria.
In addition, while the tanks could be used against ISIS, they may also be used against U.S.-trained rebels and U.S.-backed rebel groups that also oppose the regime.
With the U.S. pledging to defend the rebels against “any” attacks, including from regime forces, there is a potential that U.S. aircraft and Russian forces or Russian-backed Syrian forces could find themselves facing off.
“Deconfliction is one of our concerns with regards to any activities over there,” said Davis.
“This is extremely dangerous on top of everything else because we do have military operations in Syria. Now we’ve got Russians, and one of the first things they brought in are anti-aircraft missiles. Are they to shoot at ISIS aircraft? I don’t think so,” said Jeffrey.
Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain (R-Ariz.), a critic of the administration’s strategy against ISIS, blasted the administration’s inaction in Syria as one of the catalysts for Russia’s increased support.
“Capitalizing on American inaction, Russia is now engaged in a dangerous military buildup in Syria, which has been supported by supply flights through Iranian and Iraqi airspace, despite expressions of ‘concern’ from Secretary Kerry and other Administration officials,” he said in a statement on Monday.
“Russia’s doubling down on the murderous Assad regime is yet another example of how this Administration’s feckless foreign policy has emboldened our adversaries and diminished our standing in the world,” he added.