Ex-ambassador: Syria negotiations going to go ‘nowhere’

A respected former career diplomat who served under the Obama administration doubts the U.S. can achieve a political resolution of the war in Syria without taking more dramatic measures — particularly imposing no-fly zones. 

Retired Amb. Ryan Crocker, whom President Obama picked as ambassador to Afghanistan in 2011, predicts the negotiations will go “nowhere” as long as Syrian President Bashar Assad, who is backed by Russia, believes he will prevail in the five-year civil war. 

{mosads}”I have the highest regard for Secretary [of State John] Kerry, but this effort at a political negotiation is going to go nowhere because the Russians, the Iranians and Bashar Al-Assad think they’re on a roll — why should they negotiate?” Crocker said earlier this week at a breakfast in Washington. 

The Obama administration has long insisted that Assad must leave in order for there to be peace in Syria, but the president seemed to soften his tone Friday during his last press conference of the year. 

In contrast to his 2011 declaration that “Assad must go,” the president said Friday that “I think that Assad is going to have to leave.” 

Secretary of State John Kerry on Friday touted reaching a United Nations Security Council resolution in support of a political roadmap to end the war, but his Russian counterpart indicated the two were still far apart on Assad’s fate. 

“As to Bashar al-Assad’s fate, we don’t have that,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, before criticizing leadership changes “imposed from the outside.” 

Citing examples of U.S.-backed regime changes in Iraq, Libya and Yemen as “mistakes,” Lavrov added, “only the Syrian people are going to decide their own future, certainly.”

Crocker, who also served as ambassador to Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, said that “the reality is they’re not going to [negotiate] as long as they think they’re winning.” 

He made the comments Thursday at an event hosted by the National Press Club and the Arab Center of Washington DC, where he criticized the administration for its lack of global leadership on the Syrian war and refugee crisis. 

Crocker said imposing no-fly zones in northern and southern Syria would change the current political dynamic that favors Assad, Russia and Iran in the negotiations. 

He said it would also counter a pervasive belief in the Arab Sunni world that the U.S. is allied with an “anti-Sunni axis” consisting of Damascus, Tehran and Moscow. 

“We’re seen as de facto in alliance with, again, Iranians, Russians, and the Assad regime, against Sunni Arabs,” he said. 

Crocker said the administration — by refusing to go after Assad militarily, instead targeting only the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria — has fueled the perception that it doesn’t care about the mostly Sunni victims of Assad’s brutality. 

The U.S. unintentionally reinforced that notion when it profusely denied responsibility for an errant airstrike that killed Syrian regime soldiers earlier this month, he said. 

“No-fly zones, north and south, could begin to change that dynamic. It also is a pushback against the regime, against the Russians, against the Iranians,” he said. 

Crocker said no-fly zones would also show the U.S. does “stand with those who are being slaughtered and driven out of the country.” 

The administration has at the moment ruled out a no-fly zone, due to the risk of war with Russia, which began an air campaign to shore up Assad in September. 

Other concerns include the legality of doing so under international law and a potential war with Syria, as well as the difficulty and cost of enforcing the no-fly zone. 

Crocker, who retired in 2012, is just the latest of a string of former administration officials to call for a no-fly zone over Syria. 

Other senior Obama administration officials who have called for a no-fly zone include former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, former Defense Secretary Robert Gates and former CIA Director David Petraeus. 

Crocker acknowledged that no-fly zones would be “really, really hard to do,” but said doing so earlier may have prevented the Russians from launching its air campaign in Syria. 

“Again, the consequences of inaction, can be as severe as misguided actions,” he said.