Bakhmut on the brink as Ukraine signals retreat

Ukrainian officials are signaling a potential retreat from the embattled town of Bakhmut, which would give Russia a symbolic victory and deliver Moscow its largest advance in months but wouldn’t significantly change the dynamic of the wider war, experts told The Hill. 

A top Ukrainian presidential adviser hinted at a potential withdrawal on Tuesday, telling CNN that Kyiv was weighing the costs and benefits of holding the city.

“So far they’ve held the city, but if need be, they will strategically pull back because we’re not going to sacrifice all of our people just for nothing,” said Alexander Rodnyansky.

That followed Ukrainian President Voldymyr Zelensky saying in mid-February that the battle for Bakhmut was becoming increasingly difficult amid a new Russian offensive and that Ukraine wouldn’t pay “any price” to hold the city in the eastern Donetsk region.

Russia has shown a seemingly endless willingness to sacrifice waves of soldiers in a months-long push to seize Bakhmut, losing hundreds of soldiers per day during some of the worst fighting, many from the Wagner mercenary group led by oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin.

There are no indications of a Ukrainian withdrawal yet, and it’s possible the public hints of a retreat are a strategic headfake from Kyiv, which is preparing for a counteroffensive. 

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar announced this week reinforcements were being sent to Bakhmut but didn’t say whether they would be used to provide cover for a retreat or bolster defenses.

Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon’s press secretary, told reporters Thursday the U.S. continues to see “intense fighting near Bakhmut.”

“Russian forces and Wagner [Group] mercenaries continue to press their attacks around Bakhmut, and Ukrainian forces continue to hold the line,” Ryder said. “It remains a very fluid situation.”

Bakhmut has become a major focal point in the war for the last few months, with Russia making incremental gains despite paying a mounting human cost. 

Moscow was able to seize the salt mining town of Soledar through sheer force in January and has applied the same pummeling tactic to nearby Bakhmut. Signs now indicate that Russia is slowly encircling the Ukrainians holed up in the center of the city.

Alexander Downes, the co-director of the Institute for Security and Conflict Studies at George Washington University, said Ukraine may need to pull troops out “before it’s too late.”

“The Ukrainians want to bloody the Russians as much as they can. And this is a good place to do it because the Russians are losing a lot of people trying to do this,” Downes said. 

“But it only makes sense as long as you don’t risk losing a large force, either through getting overrun or getting encircled, which is looking increasingly likely given that the Russians are making gains to the northwest.”

In a Wednesday assessment, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Russia has made gains not just to the north and west of Bakhmut but also in the southern outskirts of the city.

Russian military bloggers this week have also reported on advances in the city. Vladimir Romanov posted on Telegram that Wagner Group itself “create[d] a threat to the encirclement of the city.”

Russian diplomat Konstantin Gavrilov similarly told a Russian TV channel that forces are advancing in squares and the “encirclement is closing.”

“Bakhmut will certainly be taken in the near future,” Gavrilov said, according to Russian state news agency Tass.

Victory in Bakhmut would give Russia its largest advance since last summer and control over a key transport hub in Donetsk, one of two regions that make up the Donbas in eastern Ukraine, which Moscow is hoping to assert its control over in its fresh offensive.

In taking Bakhmut, Russia would be able to launch a push into the western Donetsk toward the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, but they would face long highways and heavily fortified Ukrainian lines in the effort.

Igor Girkin, a prominent Russian military blogger who has criticized the Kremlin’s struggles in Ukraine, said taking Bakhmut would give Russia “absolutely nothing.”

“The enemy front will not be broken through and [Ukraine] will have reserves to restore the front line in new (also pre-prepared) positions,” Girkin wrote in a Telegram post this week, also noting that ammunition stocks could soon be exhausted after the months-long assault on Bakhmut.

Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of foreign policy at Brookings Institution, said Russia “should not feel overly encouraged by taking one town,” as it was not operationally significant.

But he said Russian President Vladimir Putin would be able to seize on the capture of Bakhmut to “spin his broader storyline” to continue the war effort after months of setbacks and signs the Russian army is on the verge of collapse.

“Putin is probably anxious to change the narrative,” O’Hanlon said.  

“He would love to have some real, accurate information around which to build his mythology,” he added. “The accurate information being that now he’s got a city back that he didn’t before.”

A changing of the narrative could also hurt Ukraine, which relies heavily on western support for the war. 

It’s possible Kyiv has held back on retreating from Bakhmut thus far out of concern it could hamper international support, but one town in Donetsk is unlikely to change many minds, according to analysts.

The ISW also assessed this week that holding Bakhmut was a sound strategy and allowed Ukraine to inflict heavy losses as Russia spent significant resources, adding that Ukraine’s indication of a possible retreat could just serve as a signal to western allies that Kyiv could conduct a strategic withdrawal if needed.

The person likely to emerge most victorious from the battle for Bakhmut in the event of a Ukrainian withdrawal may be Prigozhin, whose fighters have led the assault on the town.

Prigozhin — who did not even acknowledge himself as the founder of Wagner Group until last year — has taken a more public role in recent months and is becoming more and more critical of Russian generals and the Ministry of Defense.

Sergey Radchenko, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, said Prigozhin would come out on top if he is able to seize the city — even if it was at a “horrendous cost.”

“He can say we have delivered the city for Russia and we have succeeded where the Russian military has failed,” Radchenko said. “It will certainly be a card in his hand as he continues to play this game against the Ministry.”