As Ukraine aid dries up, next package remains on back burner

The billions of dollars in defense aid approved for Ukraine last year could dry up by late summer, but conversations on the next round of funding remain on Congress’s back burner. 

Lawmakers say delays caused by the ongoing debt ceiling impasse and the uncertain implications of a coming Ukrainian counteroffensive have delayed serious conversations around the next round of funding. 

Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.), a House Armed Services Committee (HASC) member, said lawmakers have had conversations about what needs to be a part of the next package, but he is unsure about the timing of the legislation.

The congressman said the ongoing fight over the debt ceiling was putting important legislation such as Ukraine aid at risk.

“It’s delaying our ability to focus on these issues,” Kim said. “That really shows that it has national security implications because we’re not able to have that kind of earnest conversation about Ukraine or the [National Defense Authorization Act] until they’re done with that.”

The Pentagon on Thursday revealed an accounting error that frees up an additional $3 billion, but the remaining funds intended to last for most of the year would still amount to less than $14 billion, according to a review of security aid specifically for Ukraine. At the current pace of spending, it’s unlikely that will last beyond September. 

The next package will be the first test of whether the Republican-controlled House will continue strong Ukraine support, despite a vocal minority of far-right lawmakers who are opposed to more security assistance.

Some Republican House lawmakers are already stressing the need for unity behind Ukraine ahead of the next package.

“We have to continue — we are obligated to continue to help them in some way, shape or form,” said Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.). “The question is always in the details.”

Rep. Bill Keating (D-Mass.) said those would ultimately depend on Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

“It’s not a precise science to say what because it could be gains that were made that make more support less necessary,” Keating said. “Or there could be damage inflicted where there has to be more” assistance.

He added that Ukraine has “enough right now for the near future.”

McCormick, a member of the HASC, said some of the most pressing concerns about U.S. security aid to Ukraine that opponents often raise are no longer major concerns.

That includes the proper auditing of weapons and equipment sent to Ukraine and adequate contributions from European Union members of the Western security alliance NATO.

“The EU is stepping up both militarily and in training,” McCormick said. “So this is a NATO effort, it’s not unilateral … [and] I think we have better accountability for the funds and for the arms that we give them than we ever had in Afghanistan.”

The U.S. approved $113 billion in overall emergency assistance to Ukraine last year, about $47 billion of which included direct security aid through replenishing U.S. stockpiles from equipment and supplies sent to Kyiv, the purchase and delivery of new weapons or direct funds for training or other means.

As of the last package announced for Ukraine earlier this month, the Defense Department said about $37 billion has been spent since Russia invaded the country, meaning there is a little more than $10 billion left.

It’s unclear if the $3 billion accounting error, discovered in March through an internal audit, means there is closer to $13 billion left or if the latest Pentagon estimate has already factored that into account.

Either way, it won’t be long before approved funding is tapped. 

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre declined to detail any conversations with Congress when asked about Ukraine funding this week, but she said the world has “seen our commitment to the Ukrainian people with the aid packages.”

Kyiv has said it is prepared to launch a long-anticipated counteroffensive to retake significant territory in the eastern and southern regions occupied by Russian forces. 

NATO officials have indicated Ukraine has nearly all the promised weapons and equipment it needs for the counteroffensive, including Germany’s Leopard tanks, a range of infantry fighting tanks and even long-range cruise missiles from Britain.

But Russian troops are dug in across the 600-mile front, and Ukraine faces immense difficulties in overcoming the fortifications.

Conor Savoy, a senior fellow with the Project on Prosperity and Development at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, agreed the next package will be shaped by the coming counteroffensive.

But Savoy warned a failed or stalled Ukrainian attack could work against the next package. He called it a “dangerous situation” politically and stressed the need to stick with Ukraine for the “long haul” regardless of the outcome of the counteroffensive.

“It’s not the beginning of the end,” Savoy said of the counteroffensive. “It’s more likely this is going to go on for a while, and absent American and European support, the Ukrainians are going to be in a very tough position.”

Savoy said the four legislative packages passed by the Democratic-controlled Congress last year should last until the end of the fiscal year, which is the end of September. 

The final package approved by Congress in December was intended to keep the aid flowing for most of 2023, including about $20 billion for Ukraine’s security needs.

Looming over everything is how the GOP-controlled House will handle the first legislative aid package for Ukraine.

Before he was elected a Speaker, Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), said there would be no “blank check” for Ukraine, setting off concerns he might limit how much funding Kyiv could get.

But McCarthy has been more supportive of Ukraine since winning the gavel. Earlier this month, he said the GOP has “been very clear about the atrocities that Russia and Putin have presented to this world” and “very clear in our votes as well,” suggesting the House would continue doing “what we’ve been doing.”

Still, a letter signed by 19 far-right lawmakers last month tied their support for any future Ukraine aid to a clear diplomatic strategy from President Biden to end the war.

When asked about the far-right lawmakers stymying the next package, Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.), an HASC member, said “you can never say you’re not worried about anything.”

“But I think the majority of people here in Congress, the majority of people in the country,” she said, “understand the importance of what it is that we’re doing to support the people of Ukraine.”