Why it could be a while before Ukraine deploys F-16s in the war

Ukraine got a major boost last week when the United States agreed to a joint effort to train pilots from the embattled nation on F-16 fighter jets, but it’s still a ways off before the planes reach Ukrainian skies. 

The planned training has begun in earnest, with Poland on Tuesday announcing it is “ready to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 aircraft.” The Netherlands and Denmark are also preparing for such instruction. 

But even with America dropping its obstruction, there are other obstacles to Ukrainian forces using the advanced fighters. 

They now have to teach pilots how to use the jets in battle, train maintenance personnel how to keep the warplanes in working order, and obtain the aircraft from its Western partners in the first place. 

The long to-do list means it will take months, at least, before the F-16s take to the skies above Ukraine, officials and experts say. 

“F-16s for Ukraine is about the long-term commitment” to the country, Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters Tuesday, noting the jets “will not be relevant to [Ukraine’s] upcoming counteroffensive.” 

He added that U.S. officials hope training will start within “weeks or months” outside of Ukraine at sites in Europe. 

But asked whether any F-16s would be delivered to Ukraine this year, Ryder replied, “I don’t want to put a timeline on it.” 

Doug Birkey, executive director of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, said when F-16s make it to battle depends on “a lot of conditional things,” including the training timeline and when countries agree to give up some of their stock of fighters.   

“You could do it this year, if the jets are available, no problem,” he predicted. “It all depends on [when] they’re being volunteered to go.” 

And Mark Cancian, a defense expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said it could take “at least six months, if not actually a year.”  

Ukraine has long pleaded for more advanced fighter jets to beat back a Russian invasion that began in February 2022. Jets like the F-16 could give Kyiv a strategic edge in providing air support for Ukrainian troops, intercepting Russian missiles and drones, attacking ground targets, and building back a gutted arsenal of Soviet-era planes. 

After more than a year of stonewalling over fears it could escalate tensions with Russia, the United States finally agreed to a path forward to get Ukraine the fighters during a Group of Seven summit in Japan. 

Although the new plan paves the way for several nations that own F-16s to supply the aircraft, there is still the question of where they will come from. 

Ukraine’s military has already proven it is adept at quickly picking up a new weapons technology, with troops who were sent to an Oklahoma Army base to train on the Patriot earlier this year finishing their course in only a few short months, surprising their trainers.  

Most experts and officials have predicted Ukrainian pilots could reasonably learn how to fly F-16s in as little as three to four months. 

Birkey went even further, predicting it could happen within a month if really pressed.  

“Remember, we’re not holding the U.S. standards. These are guys fighting for their lives, what are the bare bones they need to know to deploy?” he said. 

What will take longer to train on is the maintenance aspect, he added. 

“The Western systems are way more complex; it’s a totally different kind of mindset,” he said, noting that contractors could be offered to help in the interim while Ukrainians train on the system.  

A March report from the Congressional Research Service (CRS) also predicted a roadblock in training Ukrainian on how to keep up the jets, stating it can “take months or years, depending on the desired level of proficiency.” 

The report, which looked into the possible F-16 transfers, said U.S. Air Force maintainers who took up to 133 days of training still needed a year of real-world experience to gain full qualification. 

An F-16 also requires major amounts of maintenance — about 16 hours for every hour it’s in the air. 

Another layer to the issue is whether European countries are willing to give up their F-16s without commitments from the U.S. to backfill their stock.  

Case in point, when asked Tuesday how many Ukrainian pilots his country could train and eventually supply with jets, Polish National Defence Minister Mariusz Błaszczak said it “depends on our capabilities.” 

“Poland is on the eastern flank of NATO,” he told reporters in Brussels. “We have certain obligations to protect not only the Polish airspace, but also, for example, the airspace of the Baltic countries.” 

Still, getting pilots trained now will help put planes in the sky faster once a deal is worked out, according to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. 

“This is an important step that partly will enable us to then deliver fighter jets at some stage but also sending a very clear signal that we are there for the long term and that Russia cannot wait us out,” he told reporters in Brussels before a meeting of EU defense ministers. 

Officials and analysts have warned F-16s won’t miraculously turn the tide of the war, though they will help Ukraine build back its air force with a more advanced capability — with some 60 Ukrainian aircraft downed in the course of the conflict.

“It will give Ukrainians an increment of capabilities that they don’t have right now. But it’s not going to be a dramatic game-changer, as far as I’m concerned, for their total military capabilities,” Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall told reporters Tuesday.  

Cancian said the green light on the F-16s and the Biden administration’s eventual sending of other previously held back equipment, including the Patriot air defense system and Abrams tanks, are “not going to be a game-changer.” 

“These are all useful capabilities, but it’s the sum of the capabilities that will produce victory.”