Why the risk of wider war in Middle East is ‘very, very high’

The risk of a wider regional conflict in the Middle East is growing by the day as Israel prepares for a massive ground offensive in Gaza, continues to bomb Palestinians and trades fire with the militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran, which funds Hezbollah and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, has issued several warnings to Israel in the past few days that if the attacks on Gaza continue, an escalation of the conflict will become inevitable.

And the U.S. is signaling its concern about the conflict growing, sending two carrier strike groups to the Eastern Mediterranean, publicly warning Iran not to get involved and putting some 2,000 troops on ready-to-deploy orders.

President Biden is also set to visit Israel this week in a show of strength and support for the nation — but the visit may do little to defuse tensions.

“The risks for a wider war and for the region going back into full-scale war are very, very high,” said Linda Robinson, a senior fellow for foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. “This is very bad.”

The violence began with a barbaric attack by Hamas militants on a music festival and border villages in Israel. Israel responded over the past week with a bombing campaign on the densely populated Gaza Strip. 

The violence was further inflamed Tuesday by an explosion at a hospital in Gaza that killed hundreds of people who were seeking refuge there from Israeli strikes.

While Gaza and Israel are trading blame for the explosion, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas reportedly canceled a planned meeting with Biden during his Middle East visit.

Robinson said it was “extremely concerning” that Abbas canceled the meeting because it was a sign the situation was worsening and the few diplomatic off-ramps available were quickly deteriorating.

“That was where the beginning of a diplomatic off-ramp would have been crafted,” Robinson said of a four-way summit that would have included Biden and Abbas. 

She called on Washington to relay a stronger message of diplomacy to prevent the region from flaring up.

“The U.S. signaling has been very heavily pro-Israel, and they’ve only been moderating it with the need to protect civilian Palestinians in recent days, “ she said. “What [strategy] is happening isn’t working.”

Israel is seeking to destroy Hamas in retaliation for a surprise attack that killed some 1,400 of its people, but it’s facing a serious threat from other groups across the Levant region while it pursues that mission.

Besides Hezbollah, rocket attacks have also come from Syria, where Iranian-backed militia groups have been operating for years.

With Israel already under heavy fire, analysts fear the nation may soon have to contend with a multifront war that could engulf the entire Levant.

Jonathan Spyer, the director of research at the Middle East Forum, said the rate of fire with Hezbollah has been so heavy that it would have “mushroomed into war” already if Israel was not contending with Hamas.

“All this is very, very unusual,” said Spyer. “Hezbollah, and the Iranians behind them making the real decisions, are playing with fire.”

Israel’s looming ground offensive is expected to be a decisive factor in the trajectory of the war. If Israeli troops enter Gaza, Iran has warned that allied forces may have to intervene.

The Gaza war could end up being extremely bloody and long, and a prolonged Israeli campaign in the dense urban coastal enclave will likely heighten any risk of a wider regional war, according to analysts. 

Biden suggested a similar assessment this week, warning Israel that a reoccupation of the Gaza Strip would be a “big mistake.”

Iran, which has met with senior leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas in recent days, has intensified its rhetoric about the conflict as Israeli air forces conduct a massive bombing campaign on Gaza.

Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, has said Tehran may intervene in the conflict to prevent the “genocide” of the Palestinian people and warned Iranian allies are prepared for a conflict.

“According to our assessment, the resistance is fully prepared to respond to the [Israeli] warmongering,” Amirabdollahian said in a phone call this week with his Tunisian counterpart, according to state-run media outlet the Islamic Republic News Agency.

As Iran’s largest proxy group, Hezbollah is a serious threat. The last war Israel fought with the Lebanese militant group, in 2006, ended with Israel withdrawing from Lebanon without any strategic victory. And since then, Hezbollah has only grown in power.

But Hezbollah is suffering from an economic crisis and may not have the immediate means to carry out a large-scale war.

Iran may also not want to risk drawing Hezbollah into the war because Tehran regards the militia group as its most powerful proxy group.

David Daoud, a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs, said Iran views Hezbollah as its “brightest star in the constellation of proxy forces” it oversees.

But, he added, Iran has also spent the past two decades building up Gaza as the southern front against Israel and could feel forced to intervene, especially if Israel looks vulnerable in the fight with Hamas.

“Iran also needs this axis because at some point in the future, they have promised a major war against Israel. You don’t want to lose a critical front,” Daoud said. “The question then becomes, is it worth it for Iran to risk Hezbollah in a war against Israel?”

Another uncertainty in Iran’s actions is the presence of U.S. forces in the region. It’s unclear if the bolstered American presence is powerful enough to deter any conflict from growing.

“This could actually backfire,” Daoud said. “Hezbollah may be forced to respond, just to save face, because face is very important to them.”

American forces are not expected to intervene unless the situation gets serious enough to necessitate their involvement, such as Iran firing ballistic missiles at Israel, according to analysts interviewed in this article.

Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said any U.S. intervention would have to be approved by Congress, and that it remains a hypothetical at this stage.

Singh said the “main goal” of the U.S. posture in the region is to “send a message of deterrence” to potential adversaries.

“Actors in the region who think that they might want to take advantage of this conflict: Do not do that,” Singh said at a Tuesday briefing. “This is not the time to do that.”

Spyer, from the Middle East Forum, said the U.S. and Israel have a general agreement that the Israeli people must defend themselves against regional adversaries — often using U.S.-supplied weapons — without direct American intervention.

“At least up until now, the Israeli view has always been, ‘No, we can handle them,’” Spyer said. “Israel has always been very adamant that it handle its own affairs.”