When Israel’s war on Hamas ends, its conflict with Iran-backed militias may rage on.
Israeli officials are increasingly concerned with the constant artillery and rocket fire at the northern border with Lebanon’s Hezbollah militants and have said they will fight to push the group back from bordering territory.
While the risk of all-out war is not imminent, the clash with Hezbollah is driving up the long-term stakes in the Middle East.
Israel wants to eventually return its residents to the north, and it can’t do that with Iran-backed militants posing a constant threat near the border. Hezbollah is unlikely to agree to any hard concessions, setting up an impasse for diplomatic solutions — and fertile ground for military provocations.
“We’re inching closer to a war. So far, the two parties have been careful not to do something that would unravel everything and lead to an all-out war,” said Asher Kaufman, a professor and Middle East expert at the University of Notre Dame.
“But at the same time, it’s very clear that both sides are engaged in cross border exchange that makes it riskier, more dangerous and more prone to an all-out war.”
Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, has been stepping up the rhetoric on Lebanon in the past month, warning that his forces will continue fighting to secure the north even if the war against Palestinian militant group Hamas is resolved.
“We are committed to the diplomatic process, however Hezbollah’s aggression is bringing us closer to a critical point in decision-making regarding military activities in Lebanon,” Gallant said in a statement this week.
Gallant delivered the statement after he met with Amos Hochstein, a senior Biden administration adviser and U.S. envoy who has worked to little avail to resolve the tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in the north.
The U.S. is in a tight spot on the Lebanon conflict as it supports Israel but does not want to see fighting spiral out of control, seeking to contain the war to Gaza. Washington moved naval ships into the eastern Mediterranean to deter any aggression shortly after Hamas launched its terrorist attack on Israel on Oct. 7.
While Israel and Hezbollah have traded fire over the border almost daily since the war began, the U.S. says the war in Gaza is still largely contained to the coastal territory.
But efforts from Hochstein to ease the conflict in the north have struggled to achieve results, and the Biden administration’s limited ability to restrain Israel’s military has been highlighted by its actions in Gaza, where more than 30,000 Palestinians have been killed.
Still, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said other Israeli officials have indicated they prefer a diplomatic solution over war with Hezbollah.
“We do not want to see either side escalate the conflict in the north, and in fact, we are going to continue to pursue a diplomatic resolution of that conflict,” Miller said at a briefing in February.
Jonathan Spyer, director of research at the Middle East Forum, said the U.S. has leverage over Israel but described the north as a vexing problem.
“I would not discount or underestimate the importance from an Israeli point of view of changing [the] arrangement on the border,” he said. “So the question is whether U.S.-led diplomacy has a chance of achieving that [peacefully], but it does seem to me to be quite problematic.”
Israel has signaled a war against Hamas could last all year, and ongoing negotiations for a cease-fire and hostage release deal appear to be at an impasse.
When the dust settles in Gaza — even if that brings a reduction in hostilities with Hezbollah — Israel will have to next contend with its northern border, where tens of thousands of residents have evacuated from to escape the gunfire and shelling.
For Israel, returning to the status quo before Oct. 7 is unacceptable.
“It’s clear that Israel sees Hezbollah as a serious threat,” said Kaufman from the University of Notre Dame. “Perhaps even almost an existential threat.”
Israel has fought in Lebanon before, including a 2006 conflict that damaged Hezbollah, though Israeli troops also failed to achieve a victory.
Both Iran and Hezbollah are likely trying to prevent a wider conflict, considering Tehran views its Lebanese militia group as one of its prized proxies and would not want to risk losing it in a war. And Israel likely does not want a full-scale war anytime soon after Gaza, which has led to international condemnation.
While analysts don’t see a ground war breaking out anytime soon, they anticipate that at some point, a larger conflict is inevitable.
Hanin Ghaddar, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said both sides want to “breathe and prepare for the next big war.”
“The next big war is not really a war between Israel, the next big war will probably involve all other Iranian proxies in the region,” she said. “And that’s something that Israel needs to prepare for, and they need time [and …] this is not something that Iran wants to start now.”
Resolving the tensions in the meantime will be tricky. The first step to reach any slowdown in fighting is a cease-fire in Gaza.
Israel has forced Hezbollah fighters away from the border with firepower, but it will likely seek a political agreement to ensure they can’t return.
“They want to maintain this border as a tool of pressure on Israel,” said Spyer from the Middle East Forum, referring to Iran, who noted that’s “precisely the opposite of what Israel wants.”
“Israel wants the border to cease to be a tool of pressure on their communities on the border,” Spyer added. “There is a direct conflict, a direct contradiction of objectives here.”
Any negotiations could see renewed calls to abide by United Nations security resolution 1701, which calls for a demilitarized zone between a line of withdrawal called the Blue Line and the Litani River, and non-Hezbollah Lebanese security forces deployed in the south.
The Israel-Lebanon border conflict has been active since Oct. 8, when Hezbollah entered the fray to support Hamas following its deadly surprise attacks that killed 1,200 people in southern Israel.
Since then, Hezbollah has acknowledged the deaths of more than 200 of its fighters and 50 civilians, while Israel says it has lost nine soldiers and 10 civilians.
Gallant, the Israeli defense minister, has long pushed for greater action in the north against Hezbollah, but there may not be full support among other officials in Israel.
Mike Makovsky, the president of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu likely wants to avoid a multi-front conflict.
“He’d rather work out something temporarily, at least with Hezbollah,” Makovsky said. “I’m not sure there’s complete unity in the war cabinet on this issue.”