The head of U.S. European Command on Thursday said there is “low to medium risk” of a Russian invasion of Ukraine in the next few weeks.
Gen. Tod Wolters said the chances of an invasion, while hinging on a variety of factors, would likely start to diminish beyond the next two weeks based on the current trajectory of Russian forces.
“My sense is, with the trend that I see right now, the likelihood of an occurrence will start to wane,” Wolters told lawmakers during a House Armed Services Committee hearing.
Russia since last month has been amassing forces on its border with Ukraine, alarming U.S. and European officials by placing more troops there than at any time since 2014, when it annexed Crimea from Ukraine.
Wolters said “a very large” Russian ground force has moved into the vicinity of Crimea, as has a “sizable air force” and a “notable maritime force.”
Though the Russian military movement has plateaued, “it is of great concern and our vigilance is high,” he added.
Moscow’s military posturing has ramped up since fighting resumed between Russia-backed separatists and Ukrainian soldiers in eastern Ukraine, ending a cease-fire the two groups made last summer.
The actions prompted U.S. European Command to raise its alert status to its highest level.
And President Biden earlier this week raised concerns with Russian President Vladimir Putin about escalating tensions in Ukraine in a phone call that “emphasized the United States’ unwavering commitment” to Kyiv.