Overnight Defense — Presented by Raytheon — Intel leaders break with Trump on ISIS threat | McConnell to offer measure warning against drawdown | More military troops headed to border

Happy Tuesday and welcome to Overnight Defense. I’m Ellen Mitchell, and here’s your nightly guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond. CLICK HERE to subscribe to the newsletter.

THE TOPLINE: Top leaders of the intelligence community on Tuesday directly contradicted Trump’s claims about North Korea and Iran in a new assessment about nuclear developments in the two countries.

Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats threw cold water on the idea that North Korea will fully get rid of nuclear weapon stockpiles, stating that the hermit nation views these capabilities as key to its survival.

“We currently assess that North Korea will seek to retain its [weapons of mass destruction] capabilities,” Coats told members of the Senate Intelligence Committee during the panel’s worldwide threats hearing.

No North Korean denuclearization on the horizon: The country is “unlikely to completely give up its nuclear weapons and production capabilities because its leaders ultimately view nuclear weapons as critical to regime survival,” he continued.

The intelligence assessment appears to dismiss the possibility that the Trump administration can reach its stated goal to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.

And no nuclear weapon efforts in Iran: Speaking on behalf of the other officials at the hearing, Coats said the intelligence community also found that Iran is not currently seeking to develop its nuclear weapons capabilities.

“We continue to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities we judge necessary to produce a nuclear device,” their assessment reads.

The assessment warns that Iranian officials are threatening to begin building up the country’s nuclear capabilities if Tehran “does not gain the tangible trade and investment benefits it expected” from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an Obama-era deal that Trump withdrew the U.S. from last year.

Split with Trump: The remarks about Iran and North Korea mark a stunning departure from public claims Trump has made about the two nations’ actions and intentions.

The president, who bashed the Iran agreement as “the worst deal ever” and “defective at its core,” claimed that if the deal remained in place, Iran “will be on the cusp of acquiring the world’s most dangerous weapons.”

And Trump in June boasted that “there is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea.”

Officials also warn ISIS is still a threat: Coats and Haspel on Tuesday also offered stark warnings on the threats posed by the terrorist organization ISIS, a message in contrast with the president’s declarations that the group has been defeated. 

The two said that the U.S. had made significant gains against ISIS. But the report they oversaw argues that any lifting of pressure on the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) could allow it to regroup.

“The group will exploit any reduction in [counterterrorism] pressure to strengthen its clandestine presence and accelerate rebuilding key capabilities, such as media production and external operations,” the report states.

MCCONNELL TO REBUT TRUMP ON SYRIA, AFGHANISTAN DRAWDOWN: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is poised to use a foreign policy bill to break with President Trump, saying on Tuesday that he will offer an amendment that would warn against a “precipitous withdrawal” of troops from either Syria or Afghanistan. 

McConnell, speaking from the Senate floor, said his proposal would “acknowledge the plain fact” that al Qaeda, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and their affiliates “pose a serious threat to us here in home.”  

“It would recognize the danger of a precipitous withdrawal from either conflict and highlight the need for diplomatic engagement and political solutions to the underlying conflicts in Syria and Afghanistan,” McConnell said. 

McConnell hadn’t formally filed the amendment as of early Tuesday afternoon. 

What the amendment would do: McConnell is using the amendment to urge Trump to maintain a footprint in both nations. 

“My amendment would also urge continued commitment from the U.S. military and our partners until we have set the conditions for the enduring defeat of these vile terrorists,” he said.  

“We are the leader of the free world, and it’s incumbent upon the United States to lead, to maintain a global coalition against terror and to stand with our partners engaged in a daily fight against terrorists,” McConnell continued. 

McConnell’s amendment comes after a Syria policy bill overcame an initial hurdle on Monday evening. 

Lawmakers up the pressure: Lawmakers have increased pressure on Trump to reconsider his withdrawal, which precipitated the resignation of former Defense Secretary James Mattis, and McConnell warned earlier this month that he expected the Senate would have a “contentious” debate on the issue. 

“There is no question that we continue to face serious challenges from al Qaeda and ISIS in Syria as well as from Iran, Russia and the Assad regime itself. And I anticipate this body will debate U.S. military strategy toward Syria in the coming weeks as it conducts oversight over the administration’s apparently ongoing review of its Syria policy,” he said at the time.

Two officials told The New York Times last month that the administration had ordered the U.S. military to start withdrawing troops in Afghanistan, but Trump, who has long railed against the war there, has not made an official announcement. 

MORE TROOPS HEADED TO BORDER: The Pentagon will send “a few thousand” more troops to the U.S.-Mexico border, Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan announced Tuesday.

Shanahan said the military is supporting the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in its recent request for an extension of the Pentagon’s mission at the border. That request also called for more assistance in laying additional concertina wire and expanding surveillance.

“We’ve responded with ‘here’s how many people it would take, and this is the timing and mix of people,'” Shanahan said during his first press conference at the Pentagon since taking on the acting role on Jan. 1.

Asked how many people the Pentagon will send, he replied: “Several thousand. I’ll kind of leave it at that.”

The background: There are about 2,350 active-duty troops currently at the southern border after they were first deployed shortly before the midterm elections last year.

President Trump ordered the deployment in October 2018, claiming that a caravan of asylum seekers traveling north from Central America was a risk to national security.

Troop numbers peaked at 5,900 during the mission, which was originally supposed to end Dec. 15, but has since been extended twice, first to Jan. 31 and now to Sept. 30. The mission will cost $132 million by the end of the month, according to director of operations for the Joint Staff Vice Adm. Michael Gilday.

Dems press officials for answers: Democratic lawmakers on Tuesday also pressed top Pentagon officials on why active-duty troops were deployed to the southern border and continue to be.

The lawmakers argued that while past presidents routinely sent Guardsmen and reservists to the border, it’s unusual to use active-duty troops as Trump has done.

“While border security is always a challenge, there’s really not much evidence that right at the moment it is a crisis that would call for the – if not unprecedented, then highly unusual – step of sending active-duty troops to the border,” House Armed Services Chairman Adam Smith (D-Wash.) said during a hearing of his committee.

Focus on the military’s role at the border has increased in the last month as the government was partially shut down over Trump’s demands for $5.7 billion to build his promised border wall.

National Guard unavailable: Lawmakers used Tuesday’s hearing, the panel’s first of the new Congress, to question director of operations for the Joint Staff Vice Adm. Michael Gilday and under secretary of Defense for policy John Rood about the deployment of U.S. troops to the southern border.

Rood added that the National Guard could not support the additional assistance from the Pentagon that the Department of Homeland Security requested, so the active-duty troops were needed to fill the “delta.”

Military construction funds not on the table: The president has threatened to either shut down the government again in mid-February or declare a national emergency to sidestep Congress in an effort to build the wall if lawmakers do not offer funding in the next three weeks. Such a move would almost certainly face a legal challenge.

Shanahan said that if the president decides to declare national emergencies that U.S. code allows the president to reallocate military construction funding if such dollars are not already obligated.

Shanahan noted, however, that all military construction funds for the year are already allocated. 

TROOPS TO COLOMBIA? NO ONE WILL SAY: Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan on Tuesday would not say whether the Pentagon is considering sending 5,000 U.S. troops to Colombia.

Shanahan told reporters at the Pentagon that he had not discussed such a plan with national security adviser John Bolton, who on Monday was seen holding a yellow notepad in the White House briefing room that appeared to include the phrase, “5,000 troops to Colombia.”

Asked whether there are any plans to send troops to Colombia, Shanahan replied: “I haven’t discussed that with Secretary Bolton.”

He would not answer shouted questions as to whether he had discussed the option with anyone else in the Trump administration.

A refresher: Bolton’s note sparked speculation about possible U.S. military intervention in Colombia’s neighbor, Venezuela.

The administration last week recognized Juan Guaidó, the president of Venezuela’s National Assembly, as the nation’s interim president.

Election officials said Nicolás Maduro won the most recent vote, but many organizations as well as the U.S. consider the results illegitimate. Maduro has vowed to hold onto power, and last Wednesday gave all U.S. diplomats 72 hours to leave the country. He later backed down on the threat.

State, Treasury, Defense working together: At the beginning of Tuesday’s briefing, Shanahan told reporters that the State and Treasury departments are “taking [a] significant number of steps to recognize the national assembly and President Guaido,” while the Pentagon is supporting and “monitoring the situation very carefully and we’re watching.”

“We are working very much in real time,” he added.

The White House said Monday that “all options” remain on the table when it comes to Venezuela.

ICYMI

— The Hill: Dems reintroduce bill to prevent nuclear first strike without congressional approval

— The Hill: Dems use legal pad notes to push back on a South American troop deployment

— The Hill: US intel report warns of growing Russia, China alignment

— The Hill: FBI director calls China most ‘concerning’ counterintelligence threat

— The Hill: State gives Venezuelan interim president control of country’s assets in US

— The Hill: Opinion: Don’t let ISIS off the hook

— The Hill: Opinion: Presidential candidates need a plan for reducing nuclear terrorism risks

— The Hill: Opinion: Mind the civil-military gap: The Republic depends on all citizens

— Defense News: Shanahan has identified top pick to lead Space Command