Overnight Defense & National Security — Biden ‘convinced’ Russia will invade Ukraine
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President Biden said Friday that he is convinced that Russia will invade Ukraine, which could happen “in the coming days.”
We’ll dive deep into his speech, plus a potential $6 billion weapons sale to Poland.
For The Hill, I’m Jordan Williams. Send tips to jwilliams@digital-release.thehill.com.
Let’s get started!
Biden ‘convinced’ of Russian invasion
President Biden said Friday that he is convinced that Russia will invade Ukraine, which could happen “in the coming days,” as the world continues bracing for a possible military incursion.
The president’s speech comes after several officials in his administration ring the alarm bells about Moscow’s military buildup near Ukraine’s border. Despite this, the White House had stopped short of outright saying the Kremlin would invade.
Biden held a call earlier Friday with leaders from Europe and Canada to discuss the ongoing threat of a Russian invasion. Vice President Harris is scheduled to meet Saturday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference in Germany.
What Biden said: “As of this moment I’m convinced he’s made the decision. We have reason to believe that,” Biden told reporters at the White House after delivering an update on the threat of a Russian invasion.
“You are convinced President Putin is going to invade Ukraine. Is that what you just said a few moments ago?” a reporter asked moments later.
“Yes I did,” Biden said, adding that diplomacy was still on the table if Moscow chose to de-escalate.
What’s happening? In his speech, Biden said Washington has seen reports of a “major uptick” in violations of the ceasefire by Russian-backed rebels in Ukraine, noting the shelling of a kindergarten building on Thursday.
He also said the U.S. continues to see disinformation being spread to the Russian public, including claims of genocide and that Ukraine is planning to launch a massive attack in the Donbass.
The president said these actions are “consistent with the playbook the Russians have used before to set up a false justification to act against Ukraine.”
“This is also in line with a pretext scenarios that United States and our allies and partners have been warning about for weeks,” he said.
Continued support to Ukraine: The president re-iterated that no American troops are going to fight in Ukraine, but would continue to provide support for Kyiv.
He noted that the U.S. has provided $650 million in defensive aid to Ukraine, $500 million in humanitarian aid and economic support, and earlier this week announced a sovereign loan guarantee of up to $1 billion.
“The bottom line is this: the United States and our allies and partners will support the Ukrainian people. We will hold Russia accountable for its actions,” he said.
How many troops, now? Ambassador Michael Carpenter, the U.S. envoy to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, said Friday that the OSCE found evidence that between 169,000 and 190,000 troops are now along the Ukrainian border.
This number includes troops counted in Belarus and Crimea, as well as the Russia National Guard and Russian-back separationists in Ukraine.
“Colleagues, this is the most significant military mobilization in Europe since the Second World War,” Carpenter said.
Read more on the Russia-Ukraine conflict:
- Biden ‘convinced’ Putin has decided to invade Ukraine
- White House says Russia behind cyberattack on banks, ministry in Ukraine
- US: Up to 190,000 Russian troops now along Ukraine border
Poland to buy $6B in tanks from US
The U.S. has given preliminary approval for a sale of $6 billion worth of battle tanks and other equipment to Poland as the U.S. continues to bolster NATO’s defense capabilities along the alliance’s eastern flank.
Speaking to reporters from Poland on Friday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the procurement will “help to ensure a more equitable sharing of responsibilities within the alliance for our common defense.”
Austin said the time frame for delivery of the tanks is still under discussion.
About the weapons: According to a press release from the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, the Polish government requested 250 M1A2 Abrams Main Battle tanks.
The Abrams tanks are a full-tracked, low-profile land combat assault weapon that comes with a 1,500-horsepower turbine engine, 120 mm main gun and special armor, according to the Army’s Acquisition Support Center.
Austin said the country was getting “the most modern version” of the Abrams tank, adding that they will provide Poland with “highly-advanced tank capability.”
“It will also strengthen our interoperability with the Polish armed forces, boosting the credibility of our combined deterrence efforts and those of other NATO allies,” Austin said.
In addition, the sale includes 26 Hercules Combat recovery vehicles, 276 M2 .50 caliber machine guns and 500 M240C 7.62mm machine guns, among other equipment.
Cooperation with Poland: “The sale comes as the U.S. and Poland work closely together on security cooperation amid fears that Russia could invade Ukraine — an event that NATO warns would trigger a unified response from the alliance.
The U.S. has sent a total of 4,700 troops stationed at Fort Bragg, N.C., to Poland to help assure the alliance.
Austin said Friday that the troops are prepared to respond to a “range of contingencies,” adding that they would work with the Polish government “should there be any need to help American citizens leave Ukraine.”
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House GOP slam Biden’s response to Afghanistan probe
Republicans on the House Foreign Affairs Committee slammed President Biden on Friday for recently rejecting accounts that service members gave of the United States’ chaotic evacuation from Afghanistan.
In a letter to Biden, committee ranking member Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) and 18 of his colleagues called it “appalling” that Biden and White House press secretary Jen Psaki would dismiss the accounts, which were detailed in an Army investigation of an ISIS bombing outside of Abbey Gate at Kabul’s international airport that killed 13 U.S. service members.
Last week, when asked by NBC’s Lester Holt asked about the report, Biden said the report didn’t match his impression of the withdrawal. Asked if he was rejecting the accounts or conclusions of the report, Biden said, “Yes, I am.”
What the Republicans said: “These interviews make it abundantly clear that, despite your attempts to deny it, your administration failed to take the necessary steps to effectively prepare for the withdrawal or to realistically respond to the Taliban’s lightning-fast advance across Afghanistan,” reads the letter.
“As such, the American people deserve to know why your White House has rejected these firsthand accounts and asserted that no official After-Action Report on the withdrawal exists, as Mrs. Psaki reiterated on February 11th,” it continued.
What was the report: The 2,000-page report, which was publicly released after a Freedom of Information Act request from The Washington Post, included commanders on the ground suggesting that the administration hadn’t been fully aware of the threat on the ground.
The review also detailed confusion regarding the State Department’s priorities for who to evacuate from Afghanistan, as well as constantly changing messaging on who could leave.
An after-action review of the withdrawal tucked into the Abbey Gate report identified, among other things, issues of delaying in withdrawing staff from the U.S. Embassy in Kabul and a lack of consensus of what would trigger such an evacuation.
ON TAP FOR MONDAY
- The Arms Control Association will host “Ten Years of Chemical Weapons Use in Syria: A Look Back and A Look Ahead” at 10 a.m.
- The Middle East Institute will continue its “MEI’s Defense Leadership Series” at 10 a.m.
- The Stimson Center will host “Acts of War? Accountability for Cyberattacks in Ukraine” at 12:30 p.m.
- The Brookings Institute will host “Veterans’ needs in 2022” at 1 p.m.
WHAT WE’RE READING
- Marine reservist facing Jan. 6 charges accused of selling fake vaccine cards
- Former school teacher pleads guilty to helping Navy engineer husband in spy case
- Archives confirms Trump records at Mar-a-Lago included classified documents
- Biden signs bill to extend funding, avoid government shutdown
Well, that’s it for today! Check out The Hill’s defense and national security pages for the latest coverage. See you on Monday.
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