Defense & National Security — US says Russia committed war crimes in Ukraine

“Our assessment is based on a careful review of available information from public and intelligence sources. As with any alleged crime, a court of law with jurisdiction over the crime is ultimately responsible for determining criminal guilt in specific cases,” Blinken said in a statement. 

“The U.S. government will continue to track reports of war crimes and will share information we gather with allies, partners, and international institutions and organizations, as appropriate. We are committed to pursuing accountability using every tool available, including criminal prosecutions,” Blinken added. 

Earlier: The formal assessment comes a week after President Biden said he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin is a war criminal, something Blinken echoed based on reports on the ground of attacks on civilians.  

Washington’s reasoning: In Wednesday’s announcement, Blinken pointed to “numerous credible reports of indiscriminate attacks and attacks deliberately targeting civilians, as well as other atrocities.” 

“Russia’s forces have destroyed apartment buildings, schools, hospitals, critical infrastructure, civilian vehicles, shopping centers, and ambulances, leaving thousands of innocent civilians killed or wounded,” Blinken said. “Many of the sites Russia’s forces have hit have been clearly identifiable as in-use by civilians.”  

What this means: Prosecution of “war crimes” typically involves a vigorous, often years-long legal process, and international investigators are already beginning to look at Russia’s conduct during its invasion of Ukraine. 

The U.S. assessment is likely to further ratchet up pressure to isolate Moscow from the international community and could further galvanize support for Ukraine. 

It’s unclear if the Biden administration can take specific actions in response to the determination of war crimes, but officials had earlier said their documenting evidence of such atrocities would be shared with international investigators and courts that hold jurisdiction to prosecute such cases. 

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NATO estimates that up to 15,000 Russian troops have been killed since the Kremlin’s attack on Ukraine began last month, with as many as 40,000 dead, wounded, taken prisoner or missing. 

The alliance arrived at those figures based on information from Ukrainian officials, Western intelligence and information gleaned from Russia through official channels or unintentionally, a senior military official from NATO told The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press.  

High estimates: NATO estimates that roughly 7,000 to 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the attack started on Feb. 24, a major blow to Moscow, which sought to decapitate the Ukrainian government in a matter of days. 

Ukraine also claims to have killed six Russian generals, while Moscow has only acknowledged one dead. 

A first: The new NATO figures mark the first time the alliance has publicly released Russian casualty estimates since the start of the war. U.S. officials have not provided public estimates of Russian or Ukrainian casualties, pointing to the questionable reliability of such information and a fast-moving and ever-changing conflict.   

Russia has also closely guarded information on its casualties. The last time it acknowledged such information was on March 2, when it said almost 500 soldiers were killed and nearly 1,600 wounded.  

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The decision follows a RAND-led study that found men were more easily passing the new, more difficult Army Combat Fitness Test (ACFT) compared to women and older soldiers, who were “failing at noticeably higher rates.” That six-event test developed in 2019 was an expansion from the three events — pushups, situps and a run — soldiers had done prior. 

“This test is an essential part of maintaining the readiness of the Army as we transform into the Army of 2030,” Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said in a statement announcing the changes. “The revisions to the ACFT are based on data and analysis, including an independent assessment required by Congress. We will continue to assess our implementation of the test to ensure it is fair and achieves our goal of strengthening the Army’s fitness culture.” 

A flawed change: The Army first changed its fitness test to include dead lifts, power throws, pushups, planks, a run and a sprint-drag-carry event, as well as a leg tuck that was eventually eliminated.   

Service leaders hoped the newer test — the first such change in more than 40 years — would better replicate tasks needed for combat while reducing the risk of injuries.  

But the new fitness curriculum was quickly criticized after it became clear women, older male soldiers and National Guard and Reserve troops had difficulty passing it.   

“ACFT scores collected during the diagnostic period show some groups failing at noticeably higher rates,” the RAND study states.  

The update: The revised test uses new scoring scales and updated test events, which will allow women and older male soldiers to do slightly less in some of the events and still pass, such as in the deadlift, where they will pick up less weight. Women and older men also get slightly longer to complete the run.  

The maximum score for each test event is 100 points, and soldiers must get at least 60 points on each event to pass. If a soldier fails, they will be able to retake the test after several months but will be discharged from the Army if they fail twice.   

With the changes, the Army will join the other military services, which also have tiered event requirements based on gender and age for their tests.   

Read more on the changes here.

In a letter to Biden on Wednesday, the lawmakers urged Biden to “reject the approach you took last year when you proposed to cut defense spending below the rate of inflation.” 

“This is a crucial period for our national security,” reads the letter, led by Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) and Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.), the ranking members of the House and Senate Armed Services committees respectively. 

When is it coming?: Biden will release his 2023 budget request next Monday, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing a senior administration official.  

Last year’s figures: The president last year asked Congress for $753 billion in overall defense spending for fiscal year 2022. But under the $1.5 trillion fiscal year 2022 omnibus bill Biden signed earlier this month, that number was ultimately increased to $782 billion, roughly $30 billion more than what the president asked for. 

The ultimate number was also a 5.6 percent increase over fiscal year 2021. 

Expectations for this year: Reuters reported last month that Biden was expected to ask Congress for over $770 billion in defense spending for fiscal year 2023, largely due to a push from the Pentagon to modernize the military. 

Why they want more: In asking for the increase, the Republicans noted Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine as well as “little progress …made to deter the North Koreans, and Iranian aggression has escalated, with the potential for further escalation in the near future.” 

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